Amities . l have been discreetly buying this stock since it was 39p . And the more i learn the bolder are the positions i take . .....Floated in Dec 2004 it was oversubscribed and before costs the required $15 million was raised. At the helm is ex BP head of Global exploration and Resavoir management . Furthermore a success story at Global Expo . Now Nick Johnstone wants to set up on his own . And after speaking to him l am not at all surprised . He is like a "Who s Who " of the hydrocarbon world ...He has ALL the prerequisites for success so why work for some other lackey ! .. namely connections from his ertwhistle employers . He has assembled a first class management team from ex colleauges at BP ; and is his business model is simple . AFR farms in on "Big Oils " inception upstream ; and with its scale of economy it works closely with "Big oils" fields on the look out for excellent workovers oppertunities .... Already lt has via a complicated j/v a percentage of the Sao Tome and Principe acreage -Located between the oil rich waters of Nigeria and those of Sao Tome and operated by Texaco / Chevron and Esso; and believed by many to be the new North sea . . 3D Seismic testing and magnetic graphic imagery and satellite imaging has located a labyrinth of channels leading to a main resavoir which is believed to14-15 mmbbls of oil and which would leave AFR with its share of 120/140 million barrels for NO cash outlay .To ensure early cash generation Afren has entered into a production sharing agreement in the developed Ogedeh field { adjacent to the BP operated Olowi marin field which is believed to yield 180 mmbbloe. Furthernore AFR has agreed to drill the lbekelia project for Ascent resources which is expected to produce 2,500 b/pdoe to satisfy AFR percentile share ,ln addition it is a believed resouce of several years . .. , .Not a bad start for a company with little more than six months in the making . ....and well worthy of investigation !! .....@+ J

Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren, commented:

"Whilst we are disappointed at the outcome of this operation, we remain highly optimistic
as to the exploration potential of the Keta
block, where several attractive prospects, in addition to Cuda have been identified.

"The Cuda-1 well was targeting a previously unpenetrated section in a sparsely drilled
basin, and has provided Afren and its partners
with valuable information that will assist future exploration efforts in this world class
block which has billion barrel potential"

cyril

20p at all time low.

Like many oilies seems to be undervalued, all depends on their cost of production.

Talking of takeovers...this one might go like ORE....with a bidder coming in out of the blue : BG. or Shell or even maybe TLW....but it looks ripe to me !, two page write up in Shares magazine this week...worth the read guys !..

all time low?
i hope TFC got out in time and didnt hold on.according to the header he had been buying at 39p and adding. it was a good tip in a rising bull market. he seems to have always been a buyer but never a seller or profit/loss taker. i could be wrong on this point,i am often wrong but im not going to read thro over 400 posts, no doubt if i am someone will be kind enough to tell me when he sold out or stopped adding. he seems also to have disappeared from our board, i hope he is ok and didnt make the same mistake as MDX holders.at least afr still has chances of recovery as long as it has life in it. might be a loong wait.
all just my opinion dyor etc.
regards
jkd

Without being sure of anything...this I can imagine being bought out by one of the majors because it would fit neatly into a porfolio like BG.'s.....already operating in Nigeria or even Shell.....and one or two others....depends on oil and gas prices, but price hikes have just got to come soon !.

Found this,

ok, brief summary of the shares mag article. Its a two page interview with Osman Shahenshah giving an overview of the current situation.

Firstly it takes note of the drop to the 20p level in comparison with the fall in Brent Crude.
Osman states that he's never been more optimistic about the prospects and strategy.
Looking at 12 or 13 potential acquisitions (doesn't say how many they'd like to come off) prior to main market listing.
Mentions alliance with Sojitz.
Mentions Lukman leaving, saying it might actually give the company more breathing space.
Cuda dissappointment, but still see potential since the reservoir was not penetrated, re-iterates 'billion-barrel' potential.
Mentions Ebok and near term results with a view to producing 2h 2010.
No cash needs in 2009, anticipated cash flow of $200m in 2009 at $50 per barrell.
Magazine comments that cashflow of $200m in a company valued at 100m seems undervalued.
House broker Jefferies notes that share price implies 50% discount to core producing assets and takes no account of exploration potential, development assets etc.

the end.

Don't be frightened out of this company,annoucement expected early "FEB",
thats according to a reliable poster who has phoned the Co.
cyril

Well I've done my research on this and followed it for two years.

Last week I made my first purchase into the company and am very happy to be a holder.

I shall over the next couple of months be looking for the opportunities to trade in and out always increasing my exposure whilst lowering my risk.

I never thought that this would fall below the 1 mark, so now I have taken advantage of that.

IMHO this is a no brainer.

Ditto

Here's the news i mentioned and seems ok imv?

London, 3 February 2009 - Afren plc and its partner Oriental Energy are pleased
to announce the successful completion of the appraisal drilling programme on the
Ebok Field, Block OML 67, offshore Nigeria. The jack up drilling rig, Transocean
Trident IV, was released from the Ebok Field on 1 February 2009.


The appraisal programme met all pre-drill objectives and analysis of the data is
ongoing.
On receipt of the independent analysis of the appraisal programme data a further
announcement will be made.

cyril

Here's the news i mentioned and seems ok imv?

London, 3 February 2009 - Afren plc and its partner Oriental Energy are pleased
to announce the successful completion of the appraisal drilling programme on the
Ebok Field, Block OML 67, offshore Nigeria. The jack up drilling rig, Transocean
Trident IV, was released from the Ebok Field on 1 February 2009.


The appraisal programme met all pre-drill objectives and analysis of the data is
ongoing.
On receipt of the independent analysis of the appraisal programme data a further
announcement will be made.

cyril

Tuesday RNS seem to have asked more questions than answered in some investors minds,a worried IP e-mailed the company and here's his response, which i believe to be genuine?

Email from Afren:

"Thank you for your recent enquiry submitted through the Afren website.

In response to your question we commenced appraisal drilling at Ebok on 24th November 2008 using the Trident IV jack-up rig. We completed appraisal drilling operations in line with our stated timetable on 1 February 2009. We are pleased to confirm that we successfully achieved all of our pre-drill objectives which included establishing the areal distribution of the reservoir, reservoir properties and acquiring a full suite of technical data. Interpretation and analysis of the appraisal results is ongoing and we are awaiting the independent analysis and certification of this, after which a further announcement will be made on this very exciting project and the timing of the development. You will note from the Okoro development that the Company has always maintained a conservative approach to releasing robust information to our shareholders.

Furthermore we are pleased to provide you with an update on operations and performance across the rest of the portfolio:

The group is producing profitably at a total rate of approximately 27,000 working interest boepd of oil, gas and natural gas liquids.


Okoro is now producing at rates of 22,000 bopd, marking a significant (+47%) out-performance versus pre-development guidance of 15,000 bopd.


Production in Cote dIvoire remains stable at approximately 5,200 working interest boepd. Since Afren assumed control of the assets gross production has increased by circa 700 boe/d.


The company remains fully funded through its budgeted work programme and has a robust financial platform and strong capital discipline.


Afren will participate in one firm exploration well, at the La Noumbi permit in Congo, during H1 2009 and is continuing to aggressively pursue several highly attractive acquisition opportunities.


On fundamentals the company has never been stronger or better positioned to capitalise on and deliver materially value accretive portfolio growth. Should you have any further questions please do not hesitate to contact us.

Very best

Galib"

I think the key here is the term..."and the timing of the development."

Cheers

Richi


cyril

Reading between the lines it does seem good.... if the email is genuine. At the end of the day market is pricing in duster at the moment, this stock is rock bottom, any hint of good news should see good upside from here, I also wouldn't be surprised to see OPEC cutiing production again soon, they will certainly try to appear to do whatever it takes to get crude above $50 barrel, whether we believe them is a different matter.

Many producers and states will be making a loss if things continue like this, hence markets view on AFR share price at present, even though they are generating profit.

From a genuine poster, who e-mail the company, the reply also underlined the
importent points.


asked Afren this morning wether there was anything negative in recent ebok rns and I asked them that some investors have maybe percieved it as bad news the reply is below

Dear xxxxxx

Thank you for your email.

That is a complete misconception/misinterpretation. Investors should bear in mind Afren has always been very robust and cautious with respect to market guidance. Okoro is a case in point. We guided the market to 15,000 bopd and we are currently producing profitably 22,000 bopd.

We successfully completed the appraisal drilling programme and we achieved all of our pre-drill objectives which included establishing the areal extent of the reservoir, reservoir properties and acquiring a full and comprehensive suite of technical data. As per the RNS, interpretation and analysis of the appraisal results is ongoing and we are awaiting the independent analysis and certification of this, after which a further announcement will be made on this most exciting project and the timing of the development.

Kind regards

Galib

The 2nd post,

btw out of the full e-mail the following phrases were underlined and highlighted by Afren IR in last paragraph,make of that what you will ,I have

"successfully" "achieved all of our pre-drill objectives"


"the independent analysis" "timing of the development"

cyril

From a genuine poster, who e-mail the company, the reply also underlined the
importent points.


asked Afren this morning wether there was anything negative in recent ebok rns and I asked them that some investors have maybe percieved it as bad news the reply is below

Dear xxxxxx

Thank you for your email.

That is a complete misconception/misinterpretation. Investors should bear in mind Afren has always been very robust and cautious with respect to market guidance. Okoro is a case in point. We guided the market to 15,000 bopd and we are currently producing profitably 22,000 bopd.

We successfully completed the appraisal drilling programme and we achieved all of our pre-drill objectives which included establishing the areal extent of the reservoir, reservoir properties and acquiring a full and comprehensive suite of technical data. As per the RNS, interpretation and analysis of the appraisal results is ongoing and we are awaiting the independent analysis and certification of this, after which a further announcement will be made on this most exciting project and the timing of the development.

Kind regards

Galib

The 2nd post,

btw out of the full e-mail the following phrases were underlined and highlighted by Afren IR in last paragraph,make of that what you will ,I have

"successfully" "achieved all of our pre-drill objectives"


"the independent analysis" "timing of the development"

Seems we have a special result coming in the not to distant future?

cyril

A case of deja vue?

I've been looking to increase my stake as news is just around the corner,with
todays news of a 20%+ stake in Gasol (were11p)for 10%discount(sub 0.5p)so i
have bought this am. This could easily be 1+ in next the couple of years?
aimho
cyril

Any thoughts on the large sells today, over the last week it's normally been more buys ?

Also how long does it normally take for the results of the drilling to be published ?

1-may be not many investors want to hold stocks over a weekend with so much uncertainty
2-may be bad test result next week.
bit of good news below if china can may be usa will tooChinas Economy Shows Signs of Recovery on Stimulus (Update3)
Email | Print | A A A

By Kevin Hamlin

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Chinas economy is showing signs that a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package is taking effect.

The worlds third-biggest economy may expand 6.6 percent in the second quarter after slowing to 6.3 percent in the three months to March 31, the weakest pace since 1999, according to the median estimates of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

China is trying to reverse an economic slide that has already cost 20 million jobs, raising the risk of social unrest as exports plunge and the property market sags. Spending on roads railways and housing has increased prices for iron ore, put a floor under industrial output and helped to drive a record $237 billion of new loans in January.

China looks set to be the first major economy to recover from the current global meltdown, said Lu Ting, an economist with Merrill Lynch & Co. in Hong Kong. China is the only economy in the world to see significant growth in credit to corporate and household sectors after September 2008, when the financial crisis worsened to a near collapse.

The governments stimulus plan, announced in November, is beginning to gather momentum. Projects such as the building of 3.5 billion yuan of public houses in Shaanxi province and Shanghai began in December, while Shandong province started work on three new railway lines the same month.

China is committing about 1.2 trillion yuan of central government funds to the plan, which means banks willingness to fund projects is crucial. So far they are responding.

Increased my holding this week, awaiting news from Ebok, seems we have a distressed seller around? If so once cleared this will imo rise very quickly,MXP
has shown what can happen once the overhang is cleared.