Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Not at all youve got it wrong. Completly wrong.

The more a person spends on housing costs out of their disposable income the less it means thay have for other things, and as such their spending on other goods and services falls.

This fall/reduction in demand for other goods and services could lead and probably will lead to the so called recovery coming to an end.

Carney as gotten himself into a real pickle, the housing market is not just firing on all cylinders in London but the rises are now starting further North as people are forced out of London and have to find somewhere else to live.

ohhhhhhh what a mess under this Tory government.

that wasn't the question i asked

at this moment, mortgage rates haven't moved for 5 years, or at least base rates haven't
however, many people have been under severe stress for all sorts of reasons due to negative equity and i'ld be interested to know whether or not that has yet generally unscrambled across the country

slightly off-track, inflation at 1.9% is still historically benign, though its method of measurement is somewhat "strange" as you have pointed out in the past

We arent at the point of the curve where negative Equity comes into play cyners thats further down the line and I would have thought the least of worries for hard up strapped working people.

As for measuring inflation just had this conversation with Mike Hewson on twitter top nob at CMC markets.....

Mick Kipper ‏@MickKipper 11m
@mhewson_CMC Mike I think we need to move over to another form of measuring inflation, CPI is not fit for purpose and RPI is more accurate.

Michael Hewson ‏@mhewson_CMC 10m
@MickKipper I would agree but you'll never get the government to agree - would end costing them a fortune in indexation costs.

Cyners your missing the cost of living point aswel which I pointed out above....

So with UK average earnings rising by 0.3% that means real wages fell by 1.6% (CPI) or 2.3% (RPI) in March to May

If Cost push inflation (mainly wages and salarys) is only resulting in a 0.3% increase you have to ask the question JUST WHAT is fueling inflation overal and we have the answer housing costs.

ps, interest rates may have not increased but for sure people around here are already facing higher mortgage costs from the banks.

i'm not trying to pick a fight, but it would seem that, notwithstanding the house inflation that you bandy about so regularly, you actually believe that many homeowners across the country, especially outside central london and the home counties, still find themselves in negative equity


with regards to CPI and RPI, i suspect that both are considerably flawed, always depending on what one is trying to establish
it's almost a racing certainty however, that all colours of gov't will try to tinker with the composition, as indeed they all do with unemployment numbers

cynic you said......"you actually believe that many homeowners across the country, especially outside central london and the home counties, still find themselves in negative equity".....ends

NO not at all you seem to have mis understood what I have posted.

That was a problem 10 years ago. I dare say the odd house may be in that position but not the majority.

Cyners just got this message from Mike.........

Michael Hewson ‏@mhewson_CMC 29m
@MickKipper think rates will go up Q1 - think Q4 too soon but we'll see I guess. ends

Got your groveling speech ready????????????

thanks .... it was actually a genuine question, though i think the negative equity problem was at its worst only about 5 years ago

mortgage rates are always a bit odd or even quite often a rip off!
certainly anyone currently coming off a fixed interest deal will find their payments increased because the financial markets perception is (rightly) that interest rates will rise (by 0.25%) within the next 6/9/12 months though beyond that is too unpredictable

if the average mortgage is currently say £1,000 pm, i wonder how much of that is interest and thus how much impact a rise of 0.25% will make

43751 - i think the "grovel bet" was that rates would or would not go up before y/e ..... i actually think your prediction of before y/e is now just about fave

cyners its not what the rise will be its the fact that too many people have got themselves into debt just trying to stay up with the Jones and smiths next door.

My generation made do and mend I dare say so did yours aswel, too many now wanting and having to have the latest mobile phone the latest Tv etc etc. its barmy really theirs far more important things in life

Ones health being the main thing and surely being in debt for most of your early married life is going to be a strain make no wonder the divorce rate is so high.

Anyway bud off to watch PMqs and then a bit of gardening, Im out of the market while early sept unless we break through on the FTSE. LATERS.

No bet was before the GE.

laters.

Plod goes into action against the paedo's...I wonder how many MP's are on the list?




UK police arrest 660 suspected paedophiles

National Crime Agency detains suspected child abusers, including doctors and teachers, and takes more than 400 children into care


Josh Halliday


theguardian.com, Wednesday 16 July 2014 10.14 BST

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jul/16/660-suspected-paedophiles-arrested-uk



More than 600 suspected paedophiles, including doctors and teachers, have been arrested across Britain after a six-month investigation led by the National Crime Agency.

The agency, dubbed Britain's FBI, announced on Wednesday it had arrested 660 suspected child abusers and taken more than 400 children into care in the first nationwide investigation of its kind.

Of the 660 arrested, 39 were registered sex offenders but the vast majority of suspected paedophiles were off the police's radar. Those arrested include doctors, teachers, scout leaders, care workers and former police officers.

The operation, which had remained secret until Wednesday, targeted people accessing indecent images of children online.

Phil Gormley, the NCA deputy director general, said: "This is the first time the UK has had the capability to coordinate a single targeted operation of this nature.

"Over the past six months we have seen unprecedented levels of cooperation to deliver this result."


One of those arrested and subsequently charged was a doctor who allegedly kept more than 1m images of child abuse on his computers and had arranged to meet boys.

In another case, a foster carer with no previous convictions or allegations of offending was caring for a vulnerable child when he was arrested. Four computers and one phone have been seized by police and the suspect has attempted serious self-harm, detectives said.

Answers should be very interesting.........

John Mann MP ‏@JohnMannMP 15m
Good news all my Parliamentary questions on Dickens now tabled after help from parliamentary officials. Let's see what answers I get.

43755 - lying old git :-) ...... the bet started that way, but then reality clocked in and it was moved to b4 y/e :-))

No it wasnt, Hays put his snout in and as usual qouted wrongly what I and proposed and YOU AGREED CYNIC. We both agreed before the GE, Hays was the one who said before the year end neither of us did on the acceptance of the bet.

royal mail sell off . what the government or mm not tell you ,

two of the pref buyers . are tory donors and one lib donor who sold within 8 weeks
the government must answer this question .why is ed not asking the question

camoron again losing at PMqs. Doesnt answer questions, doesnt have the brains.

Shown up over sacking of Gove.

43759 - not my recollection, but seriously unimportant :-) ...... anyway, i agree a rise b4 the GE is 20/1 on, but before y/e is pretty much an evens bet either way

You Silly Billy, that one before the GE in the bookies is the second rate rise after the first one. Hence the odds.

You Silly Little Billy.

that i certainly wouldn't reckon on ..... very long odds on 2 rate increases b4 GE