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BIG fall if far east stocks and futures Imperial Tobacco the world's fourth biggest tobacco firm, reported a 40 percent rise in annual profits to 898 million pounds for the year to September 30 at the top of analyst forecasts of 867-898 million pounds and said it was well positioned for future growth. They are going to pay a higher dividend.mmO2 mobile phone group made its first operating profit with a strong rise in underlying earnings and a 13 percent increase in customers to 19.2 million, though it forecast tougher competition in the second half. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose to 621 million pounds compared with 387 million last year and a range of analysts' forecasts between 544 million and 657 million pounds. Revenue rose 21 percent to 2.68 billion pounds, in line with forecasts. Galen Holdings said it had won approval from U.S. regulators to sell a new version of its Ovcon oral contraceptive pill. JJB Sports said it had sold its TJ Hughes discount clothing stores to the unit's management for 55.8 million pounds in the face of scepticism from investors Majestic Wine reported a 42 percent jump in half-year profits on Monday and said like-for-like UK sales rose 7.5 percent in the six weeks since September 30. Profit rose to 3.96 million pounds in the six months to September 29, from 2.79 million pounds the previous year. Sales grew 21.8 percent to 69.1 million pounds. Chrysalis radio full-year profit soared to 23.9 million pounds from 5.8 million pounds a year earlier, citing increased market share at Heart FM, now London's most popular radio station. Turnover climbed 4.5 percent to 246 million pounds and it expects first-quarter radio revenues to increase 17.5 percent from last year.

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Alliance Unichem (I), Aviva (I), BurtonWood Brewery (I) Majestic Wine (I), Mice Group (I), mm02 Murray International Trust (I), WPP Group (I), Cambridge Antibody (F) Chrysalis (F), New Diploma (F), Imperial Tobacco (F) MyTravel (Update), TripleArc (Update)	Toys R Us 1:30 Business Inventories Sep - 0.2% 1:30 NY Empire State Index Nov - 30.0	E.ON German utility following consolidation of UK power firm Powergen and German gas importer Ruhrgas

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11/17:Continued decline broke the lower trendline and the late day rally has done a 'back-kiss' of it.
Not a complete 5 wave pattern down here yet, and the tentative labels shown say we drop again tomorrow in wave iii of (iii) to much lower levels.
Alternate count is that this is the start of wave (iv) here, and a sloppy sideways day tomorrow would sway things toward that interpretation.
Futures are flat as I type this, so no indication there of anything dramatic.
9500 is the next test, with the 9230 level still the most likely target of this initial leg down.
Stops at 9900 until there's enough pattern to the decline to make a better call.


Updated 11/17 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/18
UP Above 9,750
DN Below 9,625

Expanding Range
Dow trends down to lower boundary of range, reverses late in session.

From prior commentary, "...The index stayed within the boundaries of the expanding range today and will likely continue trending down toward the lower boundary of the range at around the 9,650 level..."
The Dow opened the session down and continued lower throughout most of the session, eventually PRECISELY reaching the lower boundary of the expanding range at 9,650, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The Dow then began to show strength off the 9,650 level late in the session, and subsequently staged a sharp upmove to the Close, ending the day lower by 62 points.

The Dow held at the lower boundary of the expanding range today, but the Daily Chart shows that the index also held at the major lower trend line that has remained in tact since March of this year. This has been a solid long term trend indicator and the fact that the index didn't stay below the line indicates the possibility for another rally within the trend. An upside break through 9,750 tomorrow will likely spark another move toward key resistance at 9,900.

However, if the index turns back down and breaks the major lower trend line at 9,625, look for a much larger retracement. That is, 9,625 is a very strong fulcrum level, and a break of this level will signal the probability of lower movement ahead.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight range at the highs of the 1 Minute Chart from 9,695 to 9,730. Watch for a break from this range to indicate direction tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short this morning at 9,704 and stayed in the position throughout the session before stopping out at the entry just before the Close due to our Breakeven Rule. We are out of the market and will watch 9,625 down, and 9,750 up, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each trended lower throughout the session before staging a late-day rally to the Close. The NASDAQ held at its key lower channel boundary, which will be key in the medium term. *

Summary

The Dow trended lower the entire session, but held at key lower trend lines, which pushed the index higher to the Close. An upside break through 9,750 will further extend the upmove, while a break of 9,625 will indicate an even greater decline is likely to follow.



TUE FTSE PP

R2 4417
R1 4378
PP 4358
S1 4318
S2 4298

Mon close under s2 afer loosing .7 in the auction, all about 9650 on the dow now to brk the uptrend, ftse has already broken and closed below the bearish wedge!