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Looks like 1st Slovenian well will be drilled on a sole risk basis spudding in November.

Bring it on.

http://www.fox-davies.com/media/215525/ascentupdate13oct2010.pdf

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Take the 412 bcf figure, then discount it for AST's 50%, and discount it again for 50% recovery, and you end up with say 100 bcf net prospective resources in the ground.

$9/mcf has been stable price in Slovenia for a long time (years), there is a severe need for more gas there. Onshore development costs are very much cheaper than offshore, and there is existing infrastructure in the area.

I would say you can use a value in the ground of $3.5/mcf and then using this as a figure for any DCF model.

Therefore value to AST would be 350 million US$, or say 220 million

Shares in issue is circa = 500 million

The value therefore to AST if this is turned into 2P reserves = circa 44p per share


You can see why this project has such importance to AST and if they do start to turn this prospective resource into producing reserves then their share price will re-rate rather rapidly.

Spud in November means we should know by Christmas, and a large Christmas present might be waiting for long suffering AST holders.

Thanks for "smarty" for the summary below :



Near term projects -:

Petisovci/Lovaszi

412bcf P50/200 P90/836bcf opportunity. The ownership of the licence area is messy -:
Lovaszi Prospect - 50% with MOL
Petisovci shallows - 50%
Pet/Glob deeps - 26.5%
New 75bcf opp on recently shot 61.5km2 seismic - 75%

Currently own 75% of intial 4 well campaign on a sole risk basis and in negotiations with Enquest to obtain 75% of the Pet/Glob deeps. The challenge now is funding and at 3m euros a pop the cashflow risk is clear to see. My estimates are that they have 6m ish cash in bank after E-Corp cash and at this point a sole risk well is a major cost. AST will be trying to weigh up going alone v farming and the decision will be made on the latest data received. A successful sole risk well will mean a far better farm out deal and more control for AST but i would prefer a reasonable farm out deal pre Nov drill. We only had 15% of the Pet/Glob deeps and the opp to obtain 75% and farm is great deal for AST as even a 50% farm down with zero drill costs,free carry would leave us with 37.5% v 26.5% we currently own.


Switzerland

Hemrigen/Essertines and Linden - AST share 45%

Gross gas in place estimated @ 600bcf+ by TRACS International

We have negotiated a great farm out deal raising 8m euro which has enabled AST to progress other operations within the portfolio. A 2 drill campaign planned initially at ZERO cost to AST and if successful back in rights available. AST were hoping for drill to commence in Q4, this is dependant on receiving final permit.


Frosinone Permit - Anagni

Awaiting permitting and i suspect that drill will be in Q1 2011. The opportunity @ Anagni has been estimated @ anything from 5 - 100mb !. The failure of previous wells in the lower parts of the structure has meant that the likely finds are going to be smaller reservoir(s). The project at this juncture is a cheap one and this will be our last chance to prove up our Italian opportunity.


Holland - M10/M11 blocks in N Sea

Own 54% of this project and we will either farm down, sell or lose the licence area. I believe the key to success lies with the ability to farm it down and i know AST are working very hard on this.

All of the above projects are 'company makers' and i will let the old hands work out the possible NAV's and they will be well in excess of 2 !!! should we gain success at all.


Other projects

Strangolagalli - Ripi
More seismic planned soon


Pen - Hungary

Awaiting pipeline modifications which should lead to gas increase, i am hoping for a 30%+ hike.AST will decide whether they take on more wells @ Pen, i don't think they will although the Igall project looks like another Pen so who really knows.

Igall Project

Seismic being shot and a Pen like opp in Pannonian bu oil instead of gas



There are other opps but i see them all as back burner projects and we have enough to focus on in the short term. The upside is clear to see, the challenge will be to get success before any more fund raising at higher sp.

Finally a new broker note to be issued and dependant on Enquest outcome, the new target sp will be some way north of current estimates of 20p. A rerating is on its way and a little success to validate the value is all we need.

On Line Limits today :

MAX BUY = 200K @ 5.75p

MAX SELL = 500K @ 5.65p


Someone wants to buy more AST it seems, demand looks good.

Certainly a good day for AST, looks much more stable and stronger now and with so much ahead in the coming months.

A return to 8p levels cannot be ruled out shorter term.

Technical buy at the moment as well, for those who like barcharts and trends....


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/futures/AST.LS


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Updated document on the Slovenia potential, lots more detail now.

http://www.envoi.co.uk/P187Ascent%28Slovenia%29Syn.pdf

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If you read the Fiscal Terms and the Work Program sections on Page 5 :

It appears that ;


AST will drill the PG-11 well, perhaps on a sole risk basis if needed, this month.

Pending success there 4 more wells are planned to develop in Slovenia, commencing December 2010, and also 2 on the Hungarian side commencing in 2011.


So if no farm in partner can we expect PG-11 on sole risk ahead of better farm out deal. Spud of PG-11 to be this month as per previous expectations ?

News today.

300K US$ up front then 300K US$ per Bcf, seem to be getting their ducks in a row and concentrating on the main projects and disposing of the others for cash.

A deal with Enquest would be good to divest the Dutch North Sea blocks in exchange for a confirmed greater percentage in Slovenia, IMO.

Spud late this month for the PG-11 drill in Slovenia ?

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/22713/ascent-sells-stake-in-hungarian-gas-field--22713.html


Ascent sells stake in Hungarian gas field

Thursday, November 04, 2010 by Ian Lyall

Proceeds from the sale to Hungarian Horizon Energy and London-listed JKX Oil & Gas will be used to develop the companys European assets

Ascent Resources (LON:AST) said it has completed the sale of a 20.2 per cent stake in the Nys Szatm permits in Hungary, which contains the Gbeha-1 gas discovery.

The company will initially receive US$300,000 as well as pro rata payments of US$300,000 per billion cubic (Bcf) gas once production exceeds 1 Bcf.

Ascent's managing director, Jeremy Eng, said, "The exploration licence for the area has now expired and as the production from the GH-1 well is operated and produced by HHE and JKX through its neighbouring field facilities, it makes good sense for Ascent and the other minority partners to monetise this discovery rather than to wait for the gas to be produced.

"As we had mentioned previously, the benefit of 3-D seismic was instrumental in making this discovery and the PetroHungaria partners farmed out the Panhandle area to HHE and JKX for the cost of the 3-D seismic acquisition."

Proceeds from the sale to Hungarian Horizon Energy and London-listed JKX Oil & Gas (LON:JKX), which operate the nearby Hajd gas field, will be used to develop the companys European assets.

Ascent sold its Swiss business earlier this year, but has the right to back into the project at cost.

It also has a promising oil project in Italy and must decide whether to use or lose an oil exploration licence in the Netherlands.

However, the Petişovci-Lovaszi gas project in Slovenia is crucial to its immediate prospects of the company and could transform it completely.

The publication of a report by RPS Energy provided independent corroboration of Ascents own work by confirming a P50 gas-in-place estimate of 412 billion cubic feet.

If the reserves are proved up, then Petişovci-Lovaszi will be one of the biggest onshore gas fields in Europe.



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Fox Davies comment :

"Ascent Resources (BUY, 0.20) (LON:AST, 4.75p, ▲ (8.57%)) has completed the sale of its 20.167% interest in the western part of the Nys Szatm permits in Hungary, known as the Panhandle, which contains the Gbeha-1 ('GH-1') gas discovery. Ascent will initially receive a cash consideration of US$300,000 and additionally pro rata payments, net to Ascent, of US$300,000 per Bcf will be made once the cumulative production from GH-1 exceeds 1 Bcf. The other minority partners in the licence, DualEx Nys Inc. and Swede Resources AB have also divested their interests on similar terms. The proceeds will be used for the development of Ascent's European portfolio, which includes assets in Italy, Slovenia and Hungary a nd in particular the Petisovci-Lovaszi project area on which the Company recently announced an independently verified P50 estimate of gas-in-place of 412 Bcf. The sale of the interest was to existing project partners Hungarian Horizon Energy ('HHE') and JKX plc ('JKX') who operate the nearby Hajd gas field, where the Gbeha gas is processed and sold to the main pipeline. The Gbeha-1 well was drilled in August 2009 and tested gas from the first of two gas zones targeted for completion, at a rate of 3.74MMscfd. It eventually went on production in August 2010 and average production through the first half of September was 1.66MMscfd.

Comment: Another good, albeit small, move by Ascent in rationalising the portfolio. This should help to focus managements attention on material projects that can deliver real value and also clarifies the positioning the Ascent stock in the mind of investors."

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Markets&article_id=10121592

Shares in Ascent Resources (AST) were on the rise on Thursday after it wrapped up the sales of its 20% interest in the Gbehaza-1 gas discovery in Hungary.

The European-focused oil and gas explorer is set to earn $300,000 in cash through the sale to project partners Horizon Energy and JKX, and will earn an additional pro rata payment of $300,000 per billion cubic feet once production from GH-1 exceeds one billion cubic feet.

The firm's shares were up over 8% at 4.75p.

Fellow minority partners in the Panhandle licence have also divested their interests on similar terms, Ascent added.

The well, which was first drilled in August 2009, eventually went on production in August 2010 and averaged production levels of 1.66 million standard cubic feet per day.

The company will plough the funds into the development of its European portfolio, which includes assets in Italy, Slovenia and Hungary and in particular the Petisovci-Lovaszi project area which is believed to house up to 412 billion cubic feet of gas.

The Pg-11 well is set to be drilled this month, the company said in its last update, after 3D seismic surveys collected over the last year identified two sets of reservoirs.

Managing director Jeremy End said it made "good sense" for Ascent and the other minority partners to monetise the discovery now rather than to wait for the gas to be produced, following the expiration of the Panhandle exploration licence.

I am looking for near 100 US$ a barrel by the year end, and a range of 110 US$ to 140 US$ a barrel later in 2011.



http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/22730/oil-prices-rally-after-federal-reserve-announces-600bn-stimulus-22730.html

Oil prices rally after Federal Reserve announces $600bn stimulus

Thursday, November 04, 2010 by Sergei Balashov

Oil prices rallied today after the details of the next round of quantitative easing unveiled by the Federal Reserve yesterday raised hopes of more rapid economic growth and sent the US dollar south.

The Fed announced a further US$600 billion in Treasury purchases through June 2011 to drive up inflation and slash the unemployment rate, which currently stands at nearly 10%.

Should the Fed succeed in its attempt to speed up the ongoing recovery, energy demand would likely grow, pushing up crude oil prices.

The money supply will also grow by US$600 billion, which the Fed will print to purchase the bonds, to further weaken the US dollar.

A weaker greenback makes the dollar-denominated oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, lifting demand.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil prices to inflate in the event that the G20 countries dont make good on their promise to cut fossil fuel subsidies, which would reduce oil demand by 10% by 2035.

This was reported by the Financial Times, which obtained a copy of the IEAs World Energy Outlook Report, which will be officially released next Tuesday.

The IEA estimates that such a decline would push down the average oil price from inflation adjusted US$135/barrel to US$113/barrel by 2035, compared to the current price of about US$86/barrel.

The IEA noted that the pledges made by the G20 and the Copenhagen climate conference are yet to be backed by specific measures.

US light, sweet crude for December delivery climbed to US$86.20/barrel, while January crude last traded at US$86.86/barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

On the ICE Exchange, December Brent Crude reached US$87.86/barrel. Brent for January delivery stood at US$88.05/barrel.

Cairn Energy (LON:CNE) led the blue chip oil and gas producers with a 2% gain.

BP (LON:BP) rose marginally, while fellow supermajor Shell (LON:RDSB) advanced 1.5%, as did BG Group (LON:BG).

Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) climbed 1%.

Oil and gas engineering firms did well today with Amec (LON:AMEC) tacking on 1.8% and Petrofac (LON:PFC) advancing 2.1%.

Midcaps followed the trend. Salamander Energy (LON:SMDR) led the way, advancing 4.5%. Premier Oil (LON:PMO) and Melrose Resources (LON:MRS) added 3.5% and 3% respectively. Heritage Oil (LON:HOIL) tacked on 2.2%.

Dragon Oil (LON:DGO) and Soco international (LON:SIA) climbed 1.8% and 1.2% respectively.

JKX Oil & Gas (LON:JKX) rose marginally.

Wood Group (LON:WG) advanced 2.5%. Another services company Wellstream Holdings (LON:WSM) stood just above the opening level.

North Sea oilfield developer Xcite Energy (LON:XEL) was among the top risers in the sector with a 10.5% gain. European focussed oil and gas exploration and production company Ascent Resources (LON:AST) followed, surging 8.5%.

Checking on line limits :

MAX BUY = 100K @ 5.3p

MAX SELL = 250K @ 4.93p


L2 is 5 v 5 @ 4.75 / 5.5


Looks quite strong.

Just can't get excited about this at all....if I was them : I would sell all assets and start again....too much a scattergun approach...not good for such a small company.....

so what are you posting on here for then??? you dont know what your talking about

Made a loss on this one....promises a lot everwhere but the sp never gets going...hope it changes....but if you don't like what I post : just too bad....!...

Have you not been reading up on this company? what about all the plans on drilling?

We've had this time and time before.....and ends in disappointment.....better value elsewhere.

bye bye then....