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Latest Bill Holter

What will you do

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/what-will-you-do

We got the pull back and now we can see a 'Bull Flag' Which should take us back to the high but will it go beyond?/...



S.

More and more articles are claiming seeing the manipulation getting out of control this year

http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2013/07/22/gold-price-up-2-to-1325-as-the-top-three-bullion-banks-go-net-long/

Saturn, I really appreciate your charts and in combination with your explanations of Gaz' workings out, it now becomes so much clearer.
Thank you

Snurkle - My pleasure. Thanks for all the insightful links you provide too. I may not mention it often but I do try to view them all.

Meanwhile, Just getting back from my cycle ride I see GDX has pushed above the the earlier high, I am wondering whether it has the oomph to press on to 30?/....



S.

If we pan out we can see what everyone should be familiar with now?/...A 'Wedge' but this time a Bearish one with accompanying divergences...



Remember that price usually extends above the bearish 'Wedge' and below the Bulish 'Wedge'.

S.

Nearly there...



S.

Sahara - cheers for the time and explanations and putting them in my sort of language
(with regard to my increased understanding - as the supermarket says - every little helps, thank you).

It seems overall adding the technicals to - actual physical events
(GLD draining of physical - 11 days plus negative GOFO rates - plunging comex invent-ory, LBMA delivery times extended from 3 to 5 days etc etc)
- it seems we are at a crossroads/inflection point from most persectives
- all of which in a sane world "should" point to higher prices

- however in la-la land of zirp, Spain tapping it's welfare/pension fund for a "wonga style loan", plunge protection team & dark op ESF intervention, coupled with central banks leaning on the "print buttons"
- and a gold cartel that will try anything to keep control of their ponzi/fractionalised/leveraged/hypothecated bullion game etc
- then anything would seem possible in la-la land.

So, it seems a hard call, until we see which way they want/allow it to go.
(& even that ...is excluding any f/flags and any manipulated black swans, they choose to throw as spanners in the works)

Snurkle - with regard to more in the way of "hard calls" - Holter raises a very timely
- What will you do, piece

The conundrums he raises just.... re what you would do metals wise
- if the metals seem to be just one step beyond the blue touch paper ...would in a real unfolding situation
- test your belief in your own judgement, as to what to do.

With regard to what our judgement considers to be... "next" down the line... in the likely unfolding scenario,
- would be an even greater test in our belief of our - own judgement , as to expected chain of events &... required action.

Should my own judgement be that this Holter scenarion - is "in play" at some point
( a given when, not if imo)
......................................................................................................................
i.e
An explosion in the price of gold (in reality an implosion in the value of the dollar) will not get me to do a “happy dance” (except for maybe 5 seconds until I whack myself across the back of the head to get my butt in gear).
Hopefully, and God willing,
- I will calmly go to the gas station with my cars to fill them up.
- Then it will be off to the grocery store to purchase some fresh items that will maybe last a week or so,
- I will also top off on whatever dry and canned goods that are needed.
In other words, I will be making last minute and final preparations…for a future and unspecified time period of hibernation.
........................................................................................................................

I think my own first decision.... will be the easiest
- get clean underwear.

An interesting comparison re where we are now versus - the 1975/6 position.
(quite uncanny- near correlation)

- if any such correlation repeated.... the next part of the 75/76 performance
- would it be ...whoosh & happy days
- or the signal that the above Holter scenario is - "in play"....
- and time to stock up on...fresh underwear??

Well worth a quick speed read

Well that's ...
- If you can drag yourself away from the MSM coverage of ..birth of the baby "presently known as ..prince X"
(I remember the days when Prince the pop star withdrew from his record deal and became known for legal contract reasons as something like "a squiggle...the artist formerly known as...prince :o)

Anyway moving on
- this is published by the Bank of England & US FDIC
- whilst it is from the end of 2012
- it really does give great insight...as to what is going on... "behind the curtains"
- and how big....a scale

Details proposals & parliamentary changes ....needed...to get the frameworks for the
- DEPOSITOR bail-ins
- moving entities...not already covered by the...Banking Act into being covered by it
- so - they too - will then be covered...by...."the bail ins"

I have already detailed previously some of the Financial Stability Board publications - giving a similar ....taster....of what is "likely to come" on the near horizon

BUT - if you have any doubt as to...what is coming down the track - at ever increaing speed and.....getting closer by the day
- this helps perhaps reinforce further
- 'aving a ....personal plan

Quite hard to envisage ...events...and sequence...of "the big picture" of how day to day life will be...and
- how it unfolds
- WHEN...whats in the document...start swinging into action.

The likely fall of.. dominos (then again a pizza chain failure won't matter much :o)
- and social impact/unrest etc
- is quite hard to try and wrap to wrap the brain cells around

http://www.fdic.gov/about/srac/2012/gsifi.pdf

It's quite short for such a "BIIIIG TOPIC"...and written in suprising clear and plain
- understandable english too

This could be REALLY significant (proposal at this point)

The nutshell - proposal to - have banks list their "gross derivative" positions re repos
(currently they can net off...those derivative positions)

Reason significant
- it will put the asset/liabilties on their balance sheet..up with a bang
- that means......they have to increase...their reserve requirements...with a bump to cover the increased gross exposure.

And the SEC/FEDy - is urging - "procedures" to handle "a default in repos" and also make preparation for....draft templates...in advance.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-22/sec-warns-prepare-repo-defaults

The reason I find it very interesting (& not covered in the article)
- is it - covers the proposal to - STOP THE NETTING OFF of repo liabilities
(A 7 Trillion market)

So - is this a first step towards...stopping...the netting off of ....all ...derivative liabilities.

If so - this is where it gets..... really interesting

After scaring the sh!t out the world by publishing .....the REAL level of derivative exposure
- the BIS rapidly revised its method of calculation - to massage, soothe and slash its original figure....substantially.

So what was the original derivative - exposure figure

1.14 QUADRILLION dollars .....in my speak is
...one thousand, one hundred and fourteen - TRILLION

Now just imagine if the gross requirement of ... reporting, liability and provision of capital....is extended to....all that lot.
- mind bogglingly market destroying.

That in itself is a ???

But lets move on a little and look at how the original....true derivative exposure was made up

(this is from a report covering the BIS original release of info....ie the one before..... they rapidly revised the way they calculated the derivative figure....
knocking about....500 Trillion off the original....repeat 500 Trillion !!! :o)

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) in Switzerland has recently reported that
- global outstanding derivatives have reached ......1.14 quadrillion dollars:

$548 Tril-lion in listed credit derivatives plus $596 trillion in notional OTC derivatives.
Furthermore, by 2007 credit default swap total value has dramatically increased to an estimated $45 trillion to $62 trillion. Subprime mortgage crisis, credit cri-sis and banking closure all have resulted from the violation of conservation money.

(lets put that 1,114 TRILLION derivatives in context)

Taking into the account that the World’s GDPs .....for all nations
- is approximately $50 trillion
- and all ....of the asset value of the world ....is only $190 Trillion,
- it can be seen easily that the over-valued $1140 trillion financial derivatives
- will lead in the near future
to the collapse of the whole international financial system
(similar to Iceland, Greece, Ireland crises and potentially in Spain, Portugal, and Italy....but global).

And even taking the BIS massaged/revised down figures

Have a look at....the light grey area in this graphic - they are....interest rate...swap derivatives
- imagine the size of hit...to parties ...if when interest rates rise
(in interest rate swaps for every winner...there is a loser....and a small percentage loss on a figure....in hundreds of trillions is...a really big number)
- those big losers also cause...domino effects
- which ripple outwards like a pebble in a pond




Just my thoughts.....on the way I join the dots FWIW

Potential roadmap could be a 'H&S'...



S.

Just one of those interesting ones - we are in unprecedented duration of
- negative GOFO rates

- interesting....what has happened ...after...previous occurences

Bill Holter's latest

The Entire Western World is “Detroit”

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-entire-western-world-is-detroit

Gaz, in relation to yesterday's Bill H article and your potential purchase of additional underwear, it is quite staggering how we all know that at some stage we're going to see some extreme changes, but none of us have a clue as to how it will turn out and how bad it would / could be.
I did like the fact that Bill sort of spelt it out as to what would probably trigger the whole collapse......
GOFO is the name and I'm sure the bankers will think that the frigging MOFO GOFO is causing havoc to their plans.......... or maybe this was the plan all along.

This really - just sums up - the sentiments of, around the whole 50 people in the pub last night....

Snurkle - IMO the holter tin hat, bunker style scenario is a given - it's just the when, no question of an..if.

Just, and I mean only, looking at...that piece I wrote about derivatives is mind boggling...when the derivative gross exposure is put in context of
- the whole world GDP & whole world assets
( not so much an 800 pound gorilla in the room, ...more a city filled with 800lb gorillas)

Add in that - they are considering starting with a move to have - repos liabilities shown as gross and not netted off.
- Plus the article re the B of E/FDIC sucking everything in - to be covered by the ...Cyprus template style bail-in
- and added to that - the FSB updates on advice to the G20 and progress re...
- cross border application of the template to...international too big to fails, markets, insurance Co's, brokers & intermediaries etc
- then I think that... they are putting everything in place....and lining up the ducks.

As to your comment - maybe " this was the plan all along"
- if you look up the Aaron Russo interview with Alex Jones
- then you are left in no doubt ....courtessy of David Rockerchappie befriending and effectively trying to recruit/convert Russo; that
- TPTB/Dynasty families have a ....rolling 40/50yr inter generational... plan of objectives.

Sharas link to the documentary "state of mind" - details the access TPTB have to some of the greatest minds via their funded universities, tax free foundations and their, shall we say, specialists and associated organisations.

Every permutation possible is considered, for any, and all, levers TPTB pull....nothing is left to ...chance.

As proof of just one small aspect - Jim Rickards confirms he took part in
- thePentagoons .....currency war games excercise.
(now in play of course)

Everything is planned... to the finest detail (even the cover stories to be run thro' their MSM).

Iceland, Ireland, Greece, Cyprus - were just try out tests of their theories... into practice.

So we await
- the lining up of the ducks & dominoes, and them putting the finishes touches of dotting the i's and crossing the t's
- at which time
- they press the big red button...and start pulling the levers.

Cut straight through the supposed neckline ;-/ ...



Trying to bouncer from the first |Fib line.

Look for the 50/DMA to hold or the 10/DMA and a potential back-test of the 'wedge'...



With Max pain on the miners at 24.50 for August I suppose we cant hope for much to happen till expiry date on the 16th August?/...

http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php

S.

Just a couple of pointers,
- for when the official sunshine blowing - official stats are
sunshined around in the MSM

- 1/3 (one third) of the ...total... unemployed in Euroland...are Spanish

And as I highlighted recently
- Add in the gov't has just "wonga loaned" for the second time.. this month
- from ...it's pension & welfare fund
- which is itself - app 98% invested in.....Spanish ..gov't bonds
(Unpleasant propect...given risk of ...Greek style sov bond haircut)

- So that's a .....Big domino wobbling in the - world of dominoes


- 101 MILLION Americans
(getting on for 1 in 3)
- are on some form of ....gov't food nutritional support programme
(predominantly..food stamps... etc)

(source USDA.gov june 13 report)

From memory that...exceeds...the number of ..full time employed US workers !!!

Detroit
- is really a microcosm city size view of what - will happen
- in western economies
(eg city employee pensioners to lose say up to 90% of their pensions)

The pension nightmare that is at the heart of the horrific financial crisis in Detroit is just the tip of the iceberg
- of the coming retirement crisis
- that will shake America to the core.

Right now, more than 10,000 Baby Boomers are hitting the age of 65
- every - single - day,
(and this will continue to happen... every single day... until
- the year 2030.

TPTB & puppet Gov'ts
- have made trillions of dollars of financial promises to these Baby Boomers, and...
- there is no way... that we are going to be able to keep those promises.
- The money simply is not there.
Yes, I suppose that we could eventually see a “super devaluation” of the U.S. dollar and keep our promises to the Baby Boomers..... using currency that is not worth much more than Monopoly money,

- But as it stands right now we simply do not have the resources to do.... what we said that we were going to do.
- The number of senior citizens in the United States is projected.... to more than double....... by the middle of the century,
- and it would have been nearly impossible to support them all..... even if ....we weren’t in the midst of a long-term economic decline.

Tens of millions of Americans that are eagerly looking forward to retirement
- are going to be in for a very rude awakening in the years ahead.
- There is going to be.... a lot of heartache and..... a lot of broken promises.

(yes the joy of - jam tomorrow - so pay your taxes today - and we will take care of you tomorrow....being swallowed by the sheeple ...again & again)