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FTSE + FTSE 250 - consider trading (FTSE)     

cynic - 20 Oct 2007 12:12

rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

jkd - 13 Sep 2009 21:30 - 4412 of 21973

it just occured to me, how can this help us? well its most difficult to help us with regard to the low since that seems so far away. but it might help us in respect of the high, IF that is 2009 gives us a high. think about it, and as always just my opinion and dyor
regards
jkd

goldfinger - 21 Sep 2009 09:40 - 4413 of 21973

This is it then..... the market correction we have all been waiting for.

Positioned myself so that im holding very few stocks (smart ass, even if i say so myself0....... in fact just 2 traders.........now one. 10% fall at most ????.

Were doomed doooooooooooooomed i say, doomed.

KEAYDIAN - 21 Sep 2009 09:48 - 4414 of 21973

(slap) get a grip.

:O)

cynic - 21 Sep 2009 09:55 - 4415 of 21973

a certain chartist's Gann theory view is that FTSE was to be shorted at 5190 - it actually touched 5200 this morning ...... certainly the market(s) are well-overdue a sharp correction, but that has been a valid opinion for a while though never borne out (yet!)

HARRYCAT - 21 Sep 2009 10:19 - 4416 of 21973

Shouldn't gold be rising in price if the bottom is about to fall out of the FTSE?
Also DOW futures only -50 at present.

cynic - 21 Sep 2009 10:34 - 4417 of 21973

didn't say "bottom to fall out"; i said "sharp correction", there being a very significant difference

HARRYCAT - 21 Sep 2009 10:45 - 4418 of 21973

This is all getting very confusing, as we now need to differentiate between 'a sharp correction' & 'the market correction' (which is allegedly expected to move the FTSE back down to the 3300 level).
Sharp correction seems to be the most likely at the moment.

jimmy b - 21 Sep 2009 10:51 - 4419 of 21973

Goldfinger for gods sake ring the samaritans !!!!! You've turned in to a doomster...

jimmy b - 21 Sep 2009 10:56 - 4420 of 21973

GF did you keep BOK ?

goldfinger - 21 Sep 2009 12:12 - 4421 of 21973

yep, thats the one trader ive got left.... sorry forgot W Hill aswell jimmy.

Dooooooooooooooooooooooooomed we are............ LOL.

Ill get you lads some pro analysis on the markets hold on a few mins.

goldfinger - 21 Sep 2009 12:18 - 4422 of 21973

From Inv inteligence this morning.....

"The Unsinkable Stock Market." - Barrons*

How apt. The strength of the current equity markets has caught many - including us - off guard. From the March 9 lows, the S&P500 Index is up a stunning 57.9%; Nasdaq Composite 68.1%. In Europe, the DAX Index surged by 54.5% in the last six months while the CAC40 Index soared 52%.

Even more bullish are the Asian markets: the Indian Sensex rocketed 105.2% over the same period; Hang Seng Index nearly doubled (90.6%). Not to be left behind, the Russian RTS Index jumped 83.6%. All these stunning gains propelled the MSCI World Index into a 65.5% gain since March.



The FTSE100 Index, unfortunately, is a laggard. Against the MSCI World Index, it is currently 20% behind (+46%). Still, its technical picture is bullish and remains on a strong uptrend (see above).

The FTSE250 Index is stronger. Another 7% advance - which should not to too difficult in the current environment - would push the index within the vicinity of the psychological 10,000 level (see right).

In last Mondays hotline, we were pretty defensive given that the rally looks overstretched. Events over the last week had not allayed our fears of a potential correction, including: One, deeply overbought p&f breadth indices. For example, the FTSE100 bull trend is at its highest level ever. Two, the economic headwinds remain strong, including housing and credit. See, for example, this link from Reuters**. Finally, number three, strong insider selling (see Fridays report). But, we are reluctant to fight the trend. We are currently net-long. But we are looking to short stocks that are technically vulnerable.

* 16 Sept. See: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125313046105017007.html?mod=BOL_hps_popview

**See: http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idUSTRE58G5U320090917



Index Breadth




The mid-cap p&f breadth index corrected 5% last Friday even though the underlying index dropped by only 0.6%.

To us, this indicates that the breadth is currently too overbought, increasing chances of a sharp pullback. A fall to near low 70s is on the cards this week.

goldfinger - 21 Sep 2009 22:00 - 4423 of 21973

Washout on the markets today if you are just going long.

Take it your in bear mode cyners?.

jimmy b - 22 Sep 2009 10:23 - 4424 of 21973

Well i dont see any Autumn correction today GF ,,,,maybe you meant your Autumn collection ,,have you been dressmaking over the summer ,if so make sure you get some tasty models to show them off and post the pictures on here...:-)

HARRYCAT - 25 Sep 2009 19:02 - 4425 of 21973

Although the DOW is solidly back down under 10000, I can't see any signs on the chart on Page 1 to indicate a further fall past the 25 DMA. Anyone else see something that I don't. I find it easy to look at a historical chart & see the indicators & the expected chart movement, but it's not quite so easy predicting the future falls.

cynic - 26 Sep 2009 08:51 - 4426 of 21973

my chartist guru is looking for (expecting?) a correction back to 9240 with a stop-loss at 10025

cynic - 26 Sep 2009 12:13 - 4427 of 21973

halifax (and others) ...... so is the strategy to sit tight, reduce holdings, or even short? ...... i am inclined to reduce and maybe take a short, either on the indices or on specific stocks

halifax - 27 Sep 2009 12:16 - 4428 of 21973

have reduced some holdings and waiting to see how the Dow future behaves tomorrow, a FTSE short needs a fairly tight stop loss.

HARRYCAT - 28 Sep 2009 16:02 - 4429 of 21973

Amazing. DOW was -27 first thing this morning & now is + 125! FTSE short would have been a brave call halifax! (Easy to say with hindsight ;o) )

halifax - 28 Sep 2009 16:14 - 4430 of 21973

Harry quite right so a tight stop loss worked, are we entering another period of increased volatility?

cynic - 28 Sep 2009 16:20 - 4431 of 21973

i have a small FTSE short still running, more as insurance than anything else ..... if markets slump, then won't do me much good, but the converse is also true!
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