Bioprogress is a stock I have been in and out of quite a few times since it floated in May but not much mention here on the Investors' Room. Does anyone else follow this stock. I see it is up 1.5p today and a few good buyers seem to have appeared.

GF,any views???

Bid price now 98p, no real chart support until the the 75p level! But the charts don't tell us everything.

Piece from Lemming investor

Conrad Windham (Guest Author)

April 7 2004

It is not an enviable position to be in, that is, of the analyst whose job it is to compile a report on BioProgress right now. Only this weekend I stumbled across an old announcement from March 2000, where BioProgress had signed an agreement with JT USA, and Dye Precision to develop a new type of paintball using the XGel technology. It was a reminder of just how revolutionary and extensive this technology truly is.

This article is not a stab at forecasting a value for the whole of BioProgress, but rather to concentrate on the recent acquisition of the edible film assets of Aquafilm. The completion of this acquisition was announced to the market on 1st April, and the acquired assets are now a wholly owned subsidiary of BioProgress called BioFilm LLC.

CEO Graham Hind already had a working relationship with Aquafilm prior to the acquisition, as the company had been a third party film supplier to BioProgress. Therefore when Hind was made aware that the owners of Aquafilm, who were in their late 60s and wished to retire, were prepared to sell the business he moved swiftly to secure the edible film division.

The terms of acquiring the edible film assets of Aquafilm look to be very shrewd indeed. The deal comprises an upfront payment of $3.5 million and $7.5 million as an earn-out on a $1/$1 basis against net profit. Full purchase completion is anticipated to be made by 2006.

It is worth taking a look at Aquafilms forecasts for the edible film division:

Year To 31st December
US $ Million 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e
Revenue 8.8 16.5 28.9 48.1
Net Profit 3.2 5.2 9.1 16.1
Profit Margin 36% 32% 32% 34%

These forecasts are ideal for showing just how profitable BioProgress should be in three years time come 2007. The forecast of $16.1 million profit on $48.1 million of turnover equates, at todays exchange rate to 8.78 million. Ignore the XGel technologies and assume that BioProgress comprised just the edible film division of Aquafilm. Profit of 8.78 million equates to EPS of 7.8p and puts BioProgress on a 2007 PE of 13.

This forecast PE excludes both of the current XGel licensing agreements. When factoring in the licensing deal with FMC BioPolymer for NROBE which is expected to generate a minimum of $160 million of revenue to BioProgress over the first six years following commercialisation, we can begin to appreciate the potential revenues that BioProgress should be generating in just three years time.

Current customers of Aquafilm include the following:

Procter & Gamble The Vic Vapour Strip
Boots Vitamin Strips
Colgate Teeth Whitening
Pepsico Breath Freshening Strips
Reckitts Mouth Ulcer Strips
Home Market Foods Nutrastrips
Healthy Moments Spiderman

Hind has already thought of a new market for Aquafilm to target, pets. It has always been notoriously difficult to get an animal to swallow a tablet, but the chances are a meaty flavoured strip will go down well, perhaps even considered a treat by the animal.

The cost of acquiring Aquafilm and bringing it up to a high standard is not a massive drain on BioProgress cash resources. With the recent exercise of the warrants there was 18 million in the bank; 4 million of this will be spent on Aquafilm. $3.5 million on the initial purchase, $1 million of working capital and $3 million capital investment in order to secure full FDA Pharmaceutical plant approval to exploit the new WAFERTAB technology.

The next two months sees the launch of two of the new edible food strip products in America. Spiderman vitamin strips are being launched in May for the new Spiderman 2 movie, and Home Market Foods launch their Nutrastrips, available in different varieties such as Immune Boosting, Caffeinated, Vitamin or Energizing. Combined the sales forecast for these two products is $4.7 million. In the UK Boots have recently launched vitamin strips. Revenue from the new acquisition is already rolling in.

There is an interesting twist with the acquisition of the Aquafilm assets. BioProgress have a court case set for July against Stanelco with regard to entitlement to key patents and patent applications in the portfolio of Stanelco. Stanelco have a major contract with the R P Scherer division of Cardinal Health to develop its Ingel technology, the only place where Stanelco can get hold of the required film is Aquafilm. A clause in the contract with Stanelco allows Scherer to cancel its contract in July. It is now apparent why Stanelco pushed for a court date in September, the fact that it is set for July allows Scherer to break its ties with Stanelco, should it lose the court case.

The Aquafilm acquisition therefore strengthens the strategic position of BioProgress, brings in immediate revenues and profits, accelerates the development of WAFERTAB, and accelerates the film supply for FMC BioPolymer as well as accelerating the US film supply for TABWRAP. All in all then, a terrific acquisition which helps to highlight why BioProgress remains cheap.

It should be noted that Conrad holds shares in BioProgress

http://www.lemminginvestor.com/BPRGconradWindham.html

Thanks for the post Conrad, nice to see some sensible postings (ample) are having a right field day with someone called strawberriesandcream....... Lets look forward to the future with this one.

Is the bit about Stanlelco wanting a date in September correct? I was under the impression Stanleco wanted an earlier date.

"A clause in the contract with Stanelco allows Scherer to cancel its contract in July. It is now apparent why Stanelco pushed for a court date in September, the fact that it is set for July allows Scherer to break its ties with Stanelco, should it lose the court case."

dealers report strong buying today...

Share price up 8% this morning - is news about to break??

I thought the same beaufort1,

I have just looked BUT I cant see any news YET

hold onto you hats :o)

reminder from walrus.......

Hello All....

I comment or two.

I spoke with GH yesterday at a VERY late time UK. He was as tired as I
have ever heard him, yet more intense and excited than his fatigue.
I'll pass on a few comments. Aquafilm was a major coup. The Broker's
note is in progress, but is a bear to work up due to the importance of
conveying the magnitude of BPRG's business model (which is complex).
I did learn that over 600 Billion capsules are produced yearly worldwide.
Being highly technical I will interpret this information - It's BIG!
I think we shall be quite happy with the note, and since I am not selling
I'll patiently await a proper one.

GH mentioned no names but did indicate the level of interest BPRG is attracting
GLOBALLY is significant, I trust he will capitalize on it for us. I feel certain of one thing, Bioprogress is absolutely moving forward at Warp Speed,
and is crossing Galaxies quickly. GH's demeanor was quite positive.
I gathered RNS' would flow all in good time, He was quick to point out the
objective is not the RNS itself but the deal crafted. Patience is still a
virtue.

He did ask me to pass on a request: PLEASE quite "Spamming" him E-Mails. There
are actually people that are begging him to increase newsflow to "get the
stock price higher". How infantile. (my comment) He is working hard to bring
Bioprogresses stock price up - by building a real company. You are not helping your cause sending tons of junk e-mail for him to sift through that effectivly says I want my stock price higher. No kidding, he did not know that.

PLEASE help Graham do his job. Mindless E-Mails are not constuctive. Think.

It would be nice to know more, but Grahams attitude said volumes, we are in
the right place at the right time. I hope enough of you have the vision to
stay your course.

I have recently had ZERO time to keep up OR post on
the board, I try to scan the post's but time makes it difficult.
Never the less, I remain quite pleased with BPRG and it's potential.
If I had even considered this a sell at 160p, I might be disapointed.
Seeing as that was NEVER a target price for me the share price today
does not bother me - I understand BPRG and it's core business model.
INDUSTRY changing technology wil make all holders of this stock quite
wealthy in due time.

I remain Happily Long.

I am holding too,
rock on BPRG

ps
I have been looking at ,,,,
MT.
PUB
SBRY
IMP
PCI
ALV
CWE

anybody following them?

I am in (MT. PUB SBRY (& BPRG obv.)
MT. is a punt, but lets see ?
I was in and out of old MT. (Airtours) with a bit over 100% clear profit so some
sentimental betting going on also

good luck all

nemetode

as your so close to gh
what does he say about the patent action?

a bprg holder.

GH is very confident but won't be drawn to anything as it is all very confidential and sensitive.I have to respect his views on that and also that he is a very busy man and just let him carry on with his business of securing earning enhancing deals.

Anyway this is from tiger on ample,
Why would anyone buy stock at 1.10 and then sell it at a lower price?
The CEO said he would like a note by the end of March...so we were all to believe it would happen.
Having spoken to my contact as CS....the reason it could not be done was a couple of important deals (earnings enhancing ones) that were not signed off.
With any company in it;s early days, getting a true valuation is very difficult and some times share prices are driven too high.
I know that at the last presentation given to the buyers of the stock in the last placing...the shares were deemed to be VERY cheap at 1.10
This was the reason they wanted more.

We small investors have not yet got that info....officially....however a few leaks do crep from Bio now and again, and what you read with some of the posters on ADVFN is VERY close to the truth.
If i were to take any position in this stock it would be LONG.
To go SHORT could be costly.
I hope you are around at the end of APRIL and expect you to post then....who was right or wrong!!

not being funny nematode, but the last post you made is exactly the same one that was posted about a month ago. again just my opinion, i just hope that the comments you make are not fantasy and you really do know this chap, either way i dont pay the slightest bit of attention. again IMHO

cheers questy

Robin I use www.sharecrazy.com which also has some useful threads and info. ADV bit too full on for me .

best of luck

Wiz

Sorry mark,I never ever posted the same post a month ago.You're being a prat!!!

Lol nematode , you talk through your butt IMO.

Article in Shares Mag today...."plenty more deals to come"

Thats down to Bullie trying to boost his pension fund :-)

From all the dross on ADVFN you do get one or two gems, this is one of them

As posted by Mr K

Hi,

Its interesting to read the discussion about Stanelco and BioProgress. I made my mind up a long time ago, but ultimately time will tell.

There are many people who say, When will they get it? referring to the city and its apparent neglect in picking up on the prospects of BioProgress sooner. What I wanted to find out is exactly to what extent has the city missed out on BioProgress? BioProgress is after all very much considered a bulletin board stock, i.e. a large following of retail investors.

The fact is that it would appear that the city is far slower than retail investors in spotting unique companies with realistic chances of becoming big winners. 3DM is another example where a few city fund managers will have it on their radars but not follow their interest up by daring to invest. Perhaps this is more understandable with 3DM with the illiquid state of stock. But with BioProgress there are no excuses.

So, which fund managers have been shrewd enough to spot the massive potential of BioProgress? Looking back to my notes of December show that Ormiston-Gore Securities Ltd held 4.2% of the company and Jade Partnership International held 3.31%. These are the only institutions with declarable stakes above 3%.

So does Jade Partnership International have a shrewd fund manager whose ideas I should be looking to follow more closely? Far from it actually, as BioProgress Technical Director Malcolm David Brown is a director and a controlling shareholder of Jade! No prizes therefore for wondering exactly how Jade heard of BioProgress. It is worth noting that Jade owed BioProgress 162,150 at 31st December 2003, but they have now reduced their stake below 3%, which would have generated them the equity owed to BioProgress. It does take in depth research to sometimes work out exactly why institutions might sell.

As for knowing who Ormiston-Gore Securities are, well this is interesting as again it is not a city institution. The registered address for the company is in Cambridge and takes us to Mills & Reeve Solicitors. The former name of Ormiston-Gore was in fact M&R 907 Ltd. BioProgress is Cambridge based, so once again this disclosable holding points to someone in the know with BioProgress.

Today, the institution with a holding above 3% is just Schweco Nominees Ltd with 5.74%. Is there then the possibility that both Jade Partnership International and Ormiston-Gore Securities Ltd have been selling now that they hold less than 3%? The answer is possibly, we simply do not know, as dilution has occurred with two fund raisings.

Graham Hind said that with the recent institutional placing there were two new institutions involved; bringing the total to eight, no name no packdrill so far. A friend told me that recently there was an institution selling when the price was around 105p, 5p below the 110p placing price, theres a surprise! So therefore I would guess that one of the institutions who got hold of stock in quantity at the placing at 110p has now sold all or part of their holding, Ive been told that they have finished selling though.

I believe that the city is slowly waking up to BioProgress, there are now far fewer uncertainties than there were even just three months ago.

One fund manager who I do respect is Patrick Evershed of New Star, who holds 1.7% of BioProgress, having first brought at 44p, good man!

Colin Blackbourn held stock in BioProgress when it was on the OTC BB exchange, Ill have to try and see if he still has any, if not, why not?!

And what of the house broker Collins Stewart. Have they been holding the price back in order to get their own clients on board? Quite possibly, but shhhhh Im not allowed to say that!

To conclude, I believe that the city is slowly realising the opportunity that BioProgress presents. There are at least seven or eight institutions that currently have a holding in BioProgress, all below the 3% disclosable level. Over the coming months I would expect more institutions to buy into the story, and I also expect to see a higher share price.

Oh, incidentally I hear that Graham Hind is working alongside the CS analyst who is writing the report on BioProgress. Now that can be no bad thing, can it?! Interesting times around the corner.

Best Wishes,

Mr K

Thanks Janus....clarifies things.