LEEWINK
- 28 Mar 2004 15:45
NML is due its interrim results now, last year it was the 28th of this month.
They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.
does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??
Andy
- 23 Apr 2005 11:10
- 443 of 1909
gentelmen,
Some good points raised by all concerned here in recent posts.
Stockdog,
I would expect to see director buying as a sign of confidence and commitment to their company, ESPECIALLY at the lows, because that sends a strong signal to the market!
What the NML directors have done is simply award themselves share options, subject to the performance of the SP, which is a no financial risk (for them) option, and leaves me underwhelmed personally.
To be fair, they DID convert fees and emoluments owing into shares in December 2004, so now messrs Cross and Healy hold the grand total of around 165,000 shares each, total value approx 7,000. However, I think lack of cash MAY have been the reason for them taking that option, rather than anything else.
There is certainly a large seller(s), and every time there is a piece of good news, he "drip feeds" out chunks of shares, 100k, 200k, and more recently 500k.
They are obvious if you follow the trades, and even the most ardent NML holder recognises this is hapenning. what we allwoule like to know is who is seling all this stock?, because it has been ongoing for several months now.
legend,
Your point 1, correct (IMHO)
With regard to management, 'IF' this latest RNS turns out to be erroneous too, then it's a total shambles!
I suspect it's wrong, but the AIM regulators are examining it against the share register, so we should soon know if they are forced to release another correction for the correction!
This share is an enigma, IMO, but I hang around because despite what I see as hapless and inept management, I suspect there just MAY be some real hidden value here.
Whether NML are able to exploit that is another thing, but with the Sp at 4p now, and people predicting (guessing!) 50p next year, I figure there is time to watch and wait, and 'IF' they start to deliver, that will be the time to hop onboard.
That way I reduce the potential reward, but significantly reduce the risk.
stockdog
- 23 Apr 2005 18:08
- 444 of 1909
Here is the email I have just sent the MD of Daniel Stewart
Dear Mr Cade
NEW MILLENIUM RESOURCES plc
I am writing with concern about the recent announcements from the above company and seek clarification on a number of issues.
Firstly, the interim accounts issued Thursday 31st March stated the company "will move from exploration phase to production phase by June 2005". Two business days later on Monday 4th April another RNS was issued stating that "diamond mining production has commenced on its Rio Lapi mine". There was a drop in share price of 20% the day after the interims followed by a rise in share price of 50% after the second announcement. Since then the share price has drifted back to settle about 10% lower than its recent mid range. This seems to me a high degree of volatility caused by extraordinarily crass timing of announcements by the company. Are we to believe that the directors did not have the information contained in the second announcement the day they issued the first?
The second issue is that of director shareholdings. The latest two RNS announcements do not reconcile with previous announcements of director's shareholdings and leave a very confused state of affairs as to how director's holdings have moved over the last several months and where precisely they now stand.
Meanwhile it appears that there is a large and consistent seller of stock each time the share price merely flickers above the parapet of 4p. Is there any information that should properly be communicated to shareholders at large in this regard? There was a very sudden unexplained drop in price on Thursday 21st April at 2.00pm against a background of strong rebound from the general dip in the market of a week earlier.
Perhaps, as an Australian entity the company is not sophisticated in the ways of the London Stock Exchange and its requirements for clarity of reporting. Hence I am writing to you as their NOMAD whom I would expect to be guiding them in these issues. I and a number of associates who hold shares in the company are increasingly concerned that these apparent errors should occur and, indeed, may possibly be concealing rather more sinister manipulation of the share price by major shareholders and/or the directors themselves, in particular the non-executive directors who control a substantial (21.97%, from the latest RNS) portion of the share issue.
Your enlightenment on the above matters would be very gratefully received.
Yours sincerely,
Stock Dog
legend290782
- 23 Apr 2005 20:03
- 445 of 1909
Excellent stockdog,
Please let us know what response you get mate.
This is the best way.. if you can't take the mountain to mohammed....
I have been watching closely on the other side and someone said that the FSA are watching the company carefully - whether there is any truth in that or not i don't know.
Hopefully for you and all investors sake that I will be proved wrong.
Best of luck.
The last thing i want to do on here is create enemies.
Andy
- 23 Apr 2005 20:23
- 446 of 1909
Stockdog,
Well done!
Personally, I think that is an excellent email, succinctly worded.
I am please you included the contradiction in the two RNS where in one they were "not mining until June 2005", then four days later "mining commenced two days ago!"
This has always bothered me, and some people must have lost money as a result of selling on the first news, perhaps to people that knew the second was coming?
YOur email is worthy of a reply, and if you receive one, I for one would be grateful if you are able to share it with us.
stockdog
- 24 Apr 2005 10:33
- 447 of 1909
Andy and Legend
A good example of healthy debate resulting in action, thanks to you both.
SD
legend290782
- 24 Apr 2005 11:29
- 448 of 1909
Its ok, I hope you get the response you deserve.
When I invested at 5.5p over a year ago, the business plan and model seemed like a good one. If I am honest I took the tip from someone else thought my portfolio could do with some adventure.
3 weeks after i bought they were down at this level and i started to question it!! Fortunately by some grace of god i got i think 5.6-5.7 (can't remember) so after commission i got out in profit. But i will never forget when my broker rang to sell (in the same day they were 6 o the bid) he first of all tried to get me 6p - and the trader said that there were 7 positions ahead of me (and BIG sellers). I needed the money and took what i could.
Some guy called intercept was banned on here for slagging NML off (he and his posts have been removed) and it was him that was plastering it around that it was a scam. Thats when I first started to question the co.
As andy said, I would be grateful if you could post the guys response.
Regards
Legend
EWRobson
- 24 Apr 2005 21:17
- 449 of 1909
Hey,you guys and gals have been busy. A healthy dialogue leading to a valuable approach to the NOMAD by stockdog - that dog never ceases to amaze me; my dogs are clever but there orbit is really restricted to eats, walks, games and, with the new pup, tearing up anything that is tearable.
There appeared to be a reasonable explanation re the announcement re production: in between the two announcements, Endiama had carried out an inspection and authorised the start of production. There are 4 days between the interim results and the subsequent announcement. No doubt the interim results had been prepared earlier and were released on 31st March. Cross was cross and provided up-to-date information for the RNS. Ok, Aussies and therfore a bit gung-ho (no, Gung Ho is not a missing director!) but nothing sinister to me.
Re the shareholdings, sd had the correct reading which is what I inferred from the relatively low figures and we now have the totals. In the meantime, production is continuing and diamonds are being accumulated, so why the negative aura and the subsiding sp. City not that happy; not their own people. Communication not that good with Cross and Healy doing what they are used to doing in deepest Africa. But, lets face it, these guys are probably digging up carat loads of diamonds! Given that this is proven then the sp will finally take off. So I am with sd and di that this is a really attractive speculation. OK, firestone for the faint-hearte but the early action has already occurred.
perfectly happy with your stance, Andy. you have teased out significant issues. The saying: 'fools, dogs and diamond lovers rush in where angels fear to tread', may apply. I think legend was rightly ticked off by sd because his comments were of the knocking type that are typical of some posters, e.g. deadfred: and I have seen this from him before elsewhere. But, and it may be worse than being Aussie, he is from Yorkshire where they call a spade a shovel! Where's the Yorkshire interest in the premiership? The answer is: Middlesbrough, and that says it all!
Eric
Andy
- 24 Apr 2005 21:47
- 450 of 1909
Eric,
Well to change "June2005" to "we started 2 days ago" in just four days takes some swallowing IMHO. And the interims were an RNS. so they have to be accurate.
"Gung ho" LOL!
legend290782
- 24 Apr 2005 23:19
- 451 of 1909
Eric,
What do you mean the knocking type?? Surely every poster is entitled to their view for what its worth??
If you were referring to me questioning the asos share price at 80 odd p, then i was merely stating fundamental fact that they were overvalued!!
I tried to help you for christ's sake when I told you of big big sellers. Also when I said that the sp might drift back down to 40p (from 50 where it is now) you went off on one.
Oh well good luck.
FILTHY POOR
- 25 Apr 2005 13:43
- 452 of 1909
As I've said before, I think the statement in the interims was poorly
worded and should has said full production before June 2005.
The following RNS which stated that production had commenced would not
then contradict the interim statement since they have previously stated
that production would be ramped-up over a three month period to 10,000cts
a month.
As Eric stated in his last post, "diamonds are being accumulated", and we should
soon receive an RNS detailing grades etc.
Andy
- 25 Apr 2005 14:06
- 453 of 1909
Filthy poor,
At what rate do you think diamondsa are bieng accumulated?
They actually started last November(first trial mining), so they should be close by now.
FILTHY POOR
- 25 Apr 2005 22:17
- 454 of 1909
Andy,
They actually started grid sampling last november to establish the best
area to commence mining. They achieved this during an extremely poor rainy
season (even for Angola).
Now the weather has greatly improved, they have commenced mining and are ramping up production to 10,000cts per month. This will then be further
increased to 20,000cts.
As for "accumulation rates" we will have to wait for the RNS detailing
the grades achieved.
Also, Biggies can be found at any time! and green Biggies would fetch
an even higher price.
Have you been tempted yet?
FP
stockdog
- 25 Apr 2005 22:21
- 455 of 1909
go on my son, Andy, you know you want to!
green biggies - the stuff of legend290782
legend290782
- 25 Apr 2005 22:47
- 456 of 1909
I have heard you couldn't pick your own nose let alone a stock SD
As for NML getting any diamonds - I have seen more carats in bugs bunny's hole!!
Keep pickin the winners!!
EWRobson
- 25 Apr 2005 22:58
- 458 of 1909
Looking back at the interims, there is an interesting anomaly. On p.2 it states that "The Angolan diamond project will move from exploration pahse to production phase by June 2005... By June 2005 the Company will be in a position to make medium to long term forecasts as to cash flows and profits." The latter clearly requires the completion of some production. The most likely explanation is a typo in the interim statement - well Aussies don't necessarily have the educashun to check such things!
As Filthy Poor helpfully sets out, this will presumably include a grading of production and revised forecasts on this basis. Remember too that NML will have by now a second team exploring the Bilo region of their concession with positive prospecting data from Endiama and potential to set up a second site to double production rates (do we know how far these are apart?). June should be 'interesting' and that probably gives time to build up holdings.
Eric
EWRobson
- 25 Apr 2005 23:05
- 459 of 1909
Sorry to miss out on the levity, di, whilst writing my own 'serious' post. Could you define how big the diamond will need to be? sd may not be good at picking his own winners but he is very quickly on the scent when di and I find them for him (see his CFD analyses). Proves he doesn't have any need to pick his nose - a skill he doesn't need, but very good at biting the backsides of posties and legends!
Eric
FILTHY POOR
- 25 Apr 2005 23:08
- 460 of 1909
Eric,
I feel we may have news before June regarding grades.
Lets not forget the Hudson diamond project in Greenland on NML's concession
and a possible JV for the Kimberlite exploration on NML's C9 concession.
Lots of news in the pipeline for the next few months.
Andy
- 25 Apr 2005 23:15
- 461 of 1909
Eric,
This "anomoly" you mention is casuing some confusion IMO.
It would appear that NML are simply trial mining (IMHO), and NOT in full production yet, hence the reference to June 2005 in their RNS DD 30.03.05.
They then release another RNS, FOUR DAYS later, announcing "production has started".
This is contradictory IMO, and is an example of the poor communications given out by NML.
I do not believe they have complete the required 5000 carat parcel, and therefore are not yet in possession of the required mining permit, to be issued by the Angolan authorities.
This is the reason I think they are still in exploration, although they are now ramping up to production, and will, therefore be mining diamonds.
FILTHY POOR
- 25 Apr 2005 23:26
- 462 of 1909
Andy,
As stated in their RNS, they are in production.
They do not require the permit to dig the diamonds up, since they
have obviously been doing this for months, but they would require
a permit to actually trade the diamonds.
A 5000 carat parcel will make an excellent trade!
especially if it's filled with green biggies!