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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

dclinton - 17 Feb 2004 13:11 - 447 of 11056

Sometimes it works to your advantage that CMC dampen out the fast spikes in the prices. Should have been stopped out several times in the past 10 minutes but still in the trade.

Beeblebrox - 17 Feb 2004 13:39 - 448 of 11056

did they get you that time dc ?

dclinton - 17 Feb 2004 13:48 - 449 of 11056

Yep. Stopped out finally at 1.9048. Calling it a day. Got to get a train to Telford now :-(

hilary - 17 Feb 2004 13:52 - 450 of 11056

Nice result, dc. Well done!!

MightyMicro - 17 Feb 2004 14:49 - 451 of 11056

Hil,

[off topic]- have you resolved your "Terminal" problems?

Also pleased that I repatriated US corporate earnings last week at only 1.88.

Derek

hilary - 17 Feb 2004 15:24 - 452 of 11056

Derek,

Thanks. It's fine at the moment, but it is an ongoing problem with one particular view which still needs to be resolved.

Well done on the exchange timing ..... I can see the Cable heading higher in the short term. I'm sure it'll come back eventually, but the only Greenback buyers for now appear to be the BoJ and if European interest rates go up and US interest rates don't, then, imo, we're talking a fair bit more than $2 to the GBP.

dclinton - 17 Feb 2004 18:32 - 453 of 11056

Thanks, Hil. Not sure if I'm finally getting the hang of it or if I just got lucky.

Beeblebrox - 18 Feb 2004 09:10 - 454 of 11056

B of E minutes at 9.30
If it was 9 v 0 may push cable higher again.
had a long last night @190.20, watched it up to 190.57, went ot bed with stop in at 190.30, which the bandits at cmc managed to hit. what a surprise.

hilary - 18 Feb 2004 10:03 - 455 of 11056

Beebs,

I can't contemplate a fresh long at this level. Imo, you've got to see a pullback on some profit taking to wind those oscillators back a bit and create some fresh buy signals. Hand sitting for me till then, because I'm not going to short it either.

Beeblebrox - 18 Feb 2004 10:08 - 456 of 11056

spot on if you'll pardon the pun
i'm tracking, not trading just now,
must have a correction soon - dont think we'll break 192
before a re-trace back to say 190ish
i was logged on by 7.00 this morning - were you around then, cos i needed some breakfast......

Ruth - 18 Feb 2004 12:27 - 457 of 11056

Beeble ,your a darling, thanks very much,much appreciated,

DocProc - 18 Feb 2004 14:48 - 458 of 11056

A certain CEO from 'over the road' was on BBC News 24 today at approximately 12.30pm discussing the current state of the Dollar.

Anyone see it/him?

Beeblebrox - 18 Feb 2004 16:16 - 459 of 11056

DocProc; no. what did he say ?

cable now at support - 190.24
will 190.00 hold

MightyMicro - 18 Feb 2004 16:33 - 460 of 11056

Is the next interest rate rise now in the price?

Beeblebrox - 18 Feb 2004 16:40 - 461 of 11056

mm; seems likely with a 9 - 0 vote in the mpc,
though prob not till apr/may
190.00 just gone - need hilarys' wizadry for next stop,
but looks like 188.70 to me.
really cant believe we're going back down there,
oh nice bounce off 190.00 - good support then.

MightyMicro - 18 Feb 2004 16:46 - 462 of 11056

Beebs: I agree, another 25 points rise then will see it through $2, IMHO, assuming no change in the Fed or Eurozone.

hilary - 18 Feb 2004 16:50 - 463 of 11056

Beebs,

It's my guess that we're somewhere close to the bottom. It's looking oversold now, as is the /$ cross, and the uptrend is still intact. It could spend a bit of time consolidating, but I'll be surprised if it's not retesting the high again either tomorrow or Friday.

Beeblebrox - 18 Feb 2004 16:54 - 464 of 11056

mm; the only thing worrying me about $2 is everyone knows it,
i've got a later timeframe, say june/july, by which time
pressure could be on fed to increase from 1%.

edit; tks hils

hilary - 18 Feb 2004 17:15 - 465 of 11056

The point about this article is that it's only talk. Until such time as the ECB put their hands in their pockets and start buying the Greenback, the market will just shrug off the speculation.

LONDON (AFX) - The euro came off record highs against the dollar in late
trade after European officials expressed their discomfort at the pace of the
currency's appreciation, analysts said.
"There's been some verbal intervention that has given the market some pause
for thought," said Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group.
The most high-profile comments came from EU economic and monetary affairs
commissioner Pedro Solbes, who described excessive exchange rate volatility as
"not acceptable".
Asked about the euro's fresh highs against the dollar, Solbes reiterated the
euro group position espoused by the G7 recently, that sharp currency movements
should be avoided.
"This is a classic stand-off between the markets and the central bankers,"
said Mackinnon.
At some stage, given the bearish sentiment towards the dollar, it will need
resolution, he added.
"I think at 1.30, we're in intervention territory," said Mackinnon.
After hitting a new all-time high of 1.2925 usd earlier this morning,
euro/dollar has slipped back to the 1.2840-50 level.
The markets have this week sought to test the ECB's resolve. Following a
bout of verbal intervention a couple of weeks ago, ECB officials have been
relatively quiet about the impact of the strong euro on European exports.
Meanwhile, sterling also came off highs against the dollar in sympathy with
the euro, even though it received a fillip from the revelation that the Bank of
England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to raise
interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0 pct at its last meeting.
"These minutes are very bullish for sterling," said Alan Castle, economist
at Lehman Brothers.
Elsewhere, dollar/yen broke above the 106 mark on rumoured intervention from
the Japanese monetary authorities following strong Japanese GDP data.
ECU Group's Mackinnon said there is talk in the market that the Japanese
spent upward of 5 bln usd intervening in the market overnight.
"(The Bank of Japan) seems to be, for now, holding the line," he said.
The Japanese economy grew by at an annualized rate of 7.0 pct in the fourth
quarter against expectations of 4.9 pct growth. That was its fastest rate of
growth since the second quarter of 1990.
Frank Gong, analyst at Bank of America, said he expects the Japanese
monetary authorities to remain in the market.
However, he reckons that characteristic fiscal year-end repatriation flows
will add pressure in March, with dollar/yen poised to move down to 103.

Beeblebrox - 18 Feb 2004 18:38 - 466 of 11056

rhetoric has had an effect tonight,
got down to 189.47, which is an uncomfortable level,
still anything above 188.70 is a higher low,
and uptrend still ok.
off to bridge now, c u for us open - golf in morning if weather ok.
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