I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

This looks like a bloody massacre

Where did it finish? Is it anywhere near the 200 day moving average yet?

Strawbs.

so the general consensus is the market is likely to drop again . Was thinking of buying a few at the subdued prices but may wait another day.

Cynic was looking at THR(W) and RGM both down lots over past few days and i feel they may recover in the short term but could your charts shed any light[big warning signs of gloom etc] or are they useless when the market swings so much
your thoughts please if you have the time
regards
Alex

Found the answer to my question:



Looks like it's bang on the 200 day moving average (red line) .......

In theory that should provide some support. Not that theory seems to count for much in these markets.

Strawbs

problem is spx and nasdaq are below the 200ma

Hmmm. Didn't look at them. Most (if not all) the other major indices look like they're below the 200 dma too. I also notice the dollar/yen is continuing to slide, which might mean more carry trade unwinding. Question is.....are we at the start, middle or end?

Strawbs

even if the start of a bear market, rather just the middle/end-part of a major correction, the markets will not slide in a straight line ...... have taken money off the table this morning, albeit that losses were crystalised, but better that than burying one's head in the sand ...... shame i don't still have yesterday's FTSE short running! .... bet i would have done in a theoretical portfolio!!

Probably. As you say. It's easier to be dispassionate when you don't have profits being erroded. I suspect we are at the start of the bear market. I don't know how much money has been wiped off shares worldwide (let alone sub prime), but it must be huge, and it will knock confidence for a long time. That's why the start of bear markets are so volatile and violent, kill the confidence, kill the money supply, kill the uptrend. Now it's a case of waiting either for the bounce (if your a trader) or the bottom (if you're a lazy investor like me).

Strawbs.

have just bought 4 long contracts ($40 per point) Dow at 12770 ....... well not really! just in my non-existent theoretical portfolio!! ...... sure as hell not brave enough to do for real, though surely to goodness this bloodbath is overdone, even if only temporarily

I suspect there'll be a relief rally at some point. Things never go in a straight line. The bounce when it comes will be strong, but I believe will ultimately fail. You simply can't take that much money out of the markets and expect them to recover any time quickly. The money will have gone somewhere, presumably to prop up some shakey foundations elsewhere and won't be coming back anytime soon. Others will have severely burnt fingers. Those sitting on the sidelines with cash will provide the relief rally and will be burned in the slow market decline that follows.

It's also worth remembering that economies are like super tankers. They take ages to speed up and ages to slow down. These recent "fires in the engine room" won't slow momentum straight away, but over time they will come back to haunt us. The results of which may not appear for several years....ripples of events yet to come.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Do you think selling volumes have been exceptional over the past couple of weeks?

Perhaps a lot of the Index declines are due to MMs marking down heavily. When the turn comes they risk being short of stock.

without question there will have been swathes of forced sales ...... Dow has certainly seen heavy volumes and suspect same in UK

now that the ftse fell thru' the magic 6000, what is the prognosis?

so it did .... in all the shambles i missed it ..... in fact, despite the recovery of 50+ this morning, index is barely over 5900, so i guess that in the short term we have to see if the fall below 6000 is only a blip ..... however, no one has any confidence at all that the markets will recover in the immedaite future, so forecasts further heavy falls could be self-fulfilling

whether knee jerk or not, the fact is that FTSE jumped straight back through 6000 and Dow bounced firmly off 200 dma ....... early Monday will inevitably see a strong performance in Japan, so this should bring further advance of unknown magnitude in London, at least first thing; it will then be fingers x-crossed that Wall Street does no worse than consolidate, ideally holding above 13,000

having read quite a lot of newspaper comment over w/e, have been pondering market direction in the immedaite future ....... while there would certainly seem to be all sorts very nasty things in the cupboard, i think (or very much hope) that this coming week will see some stability in all markets ...... the upcoming long w/e is both good news and bad ..... good news that london will be closed, though hard to tell if there will be a lot of selling just beforehand ...... bad news that other markets will be open, so could scare us all to death ...... good news that, whether effective or not as a stabiliser, US Fed and European central banks look set either to reduce lending rates (US is said to be a racing certainty) or at least to hold steady ..... this will give at least a psychological boost, even though the effects will not really be felt until towards the year end.

My impression is that the worst of the sh.. has already hit the fan and that the markets will now start rising again. Markets are more resilient than some realise and after a bad spell there's always a good one to follow on. That's life and we really shouldn't be all that surprised by it.

Sub-prime debt has still not gone away. All the Fed has done is ease the pressure on the banks a little. We still have to see how many Hedge funds etc are now exposed. IMO, there is still more downside to come.

i have also read the newspapers and as usual its sell by some and a buying opportunity from others - nothing changes

Definitely the market will rise this week - it's just a matter of by how much.