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Mediwatch - Watch them rocket in 2005 !!! (MDW)     

overgrowth - 12 May 2005 22:21

Mediwatch is a small company destined to become a much bigger fish by the time this year is out. Mediwatch are already a market leader in urological medical diagnostics equipement and are currently exporting their products throughout the UK, Canada, Europe, India and Japan. That doesn't leave much of the globe left for them to capture - until you remember the good ol' US and China. These are the two massive markets which are destined to be added to MDW's export client portfolio by the end of 2005.

The company is currently heavily undervalued. This is probably because Mediwatch's speciality is not a very glamourous business to be in as their equipment is used extensively to diagnose prostate cancer in men and other nasty urological conditions affecting both men and women. However, don't let that put you off investing in these guys. This is big business and is growing at an exponential rate as more and more people globally become health-aware as they get older.

Mediwatch normally supply their products through to global markets via distribution agreements. They already have the best of distribution partners in the well known US medical distributor CR Bard who supply Canada and Europe and GE Medical who supply Japan. The UK business is handled by Mediwatch's own dedicated sales team.

US FDA approval was gained for MDW's products at the start of last year, however a whole year of US legal wrangling meant that they were unable to seek a suitable partner for the crucial distribution agreement until the start of this year. This distribution agreement is expected by the board to have a "significant effect" on the share price so they are reluctant to give any clues as to when it will be signed, sealed and delivered. The general consensus is that this US distribution agreement will be announced in July/August. In China and Hong Kong, MDW have done things the other way round. They have set up distribution agreements with major Asian medical equipment distributors and have stock already out there waiting to sell into the markets - all they are waiting for is SDA approval (which is a "rubber stamp") from the Chinese authorities - this can take anything up to 12 months to come through and MDW applied during Autumn 2004 - so even more good news coming soon this year. Epidemiological data from British Association of Urology conference last year: On average 30-45% of all men between the age of 50 and 70 have at least one PSA test per year in the US / Italy / Australia.

If that's not enough to convince you to invest a few hard earned coppers in MDW, they are also developing a PSA stick test product (PSAWatch) which is revolutionary and causing some excitement in medical circles. This product can also be adapted (at very low cost) for a whole spectrum of medical disciplines from Cardiology to Veterinary Practice! This product is likely to be released in the next few weeks. Philip Stimpson the CEO has said that this product is going to be their "gold mine" - I'm sure it will prove to be ours too.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=MDW&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=MDW&Si

ptholden - 01 Jul 2005 15:53 - 451 of 1497

1nudger, if you want to learn all about technical analysis (support / resistance and a whole lot more) you could do worse than buying 'Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets' by John J Murphy.

A bit pricey, but a huge amount of information (most of it's available on the web in one form or another, but a lot easier to read from a book). Available through AM.

Good luck.

pth

crispyd - 01 Jul 2005 16:50 - 452 of 1497

ptholden/optomistic

I need to get to grips with the jargon, that'll keep me off the streets for a while.

Thanks for the info.
Crispyd

1nudger - 01 Jul 2005 16:52 - 453 of 1497

thanks for your help, perhaps any of you gents/ladies ?, could have a look at the new thread TPK

andysmith - 04 Jul 2005 10:34 - 454 of 1497

Added at 10.6p this morning. Off on hols tomorrow so here's hoping for that good news.

overgrowth - 04 Jul 2005 10:43 - 455 of 1497

We shouldn't have to wait long for news now andy - best to be in when it breaks.

Have a good hol.

petralva - 04 Jul 2005 15:09 - 456 of 1497

another small tick up i see.................

jnknill - 04 Jul 2005 15:18 - 457 of 1497

pth/og, News on the horizon, the closer horizon hopefully! Rgds.

ptholden - 04 Jul 2005 16:41 - 458 of 1497

Hi jnk

Still here and watching closely. Just about over my complete disaster of the last ten days or so with MDW. Sometimes, when you're not happy with a position it is best to just get out, take a reduced profit or loss and think again. Still have a lot of these and am wondering about topping up again at these levels. Really need to see which way it's going before I do though. Quite a bit of talk still about raising cash through a shares issue. Hopefully a deal with Medtronic with an upfront payment will neagte any such requirement.

pth

jnknill - 04 Jul 2005 20:47 - 459 of 1497

Hello pth, Good to get your news/views. Have to say I wouldn,t be too happy with a shares issue, apart from the personal feeling of being "let-down" I tend to think that any previous PR work is quickly negated and furthermore potential investors appear to sense "big-big" weakness in-house and quickly disappear! On the selfish front I also happen to have a reasonable holding. So heres to Medtronic!Well pleased to hear that you have somewhat settled on your holding, this Company would be the worse off if it lost Investors of your calibre, hopefully I am not coming across on the" patronising reception". Finally, what is your view on the 100k+ purchase today, do you think it is an Inst., or what? Good luck & regds.

ptholden - 04 Jul 2005 21:01 - 460 of 1497

jnk

Wouldn't be institutional buying for relatively few shares. Institutions tend to buy in large blocks at an agreed price and hold the price back for eons until the order is filled. However, us mushrooms have so little to go on, who knows? In reality the purchase of 100k worth of shares is not a particularly large investment in financial terms, only about 11k at todays prices. I just hope that the long for promised news is not too long in coming, else we will be into a drifting of the SP, and probably slowly down! But, to look on the bright side, MDW have stated that they are in negotiations with Medtronic and not discussions. As OG has already said this is an absolute fundamental difference. Fingers crossed.

pth

overgrowth - 05 Jul 2005 16:23 - 461 of 1497

It's good too see MDW with a slight tick up again - I haven't been watching too closely - too distracted today with DGT and RTD soaring.

It looks as though the price may meander now between 10.5 and 12 whilst everyone is waiting for the US news.

I think that when the US news comes out it will be a case of "buy on news" rather than "buy on rumour" for a lot of people who've had MDW on their watch list but not bought in yet.

ptholden - 05 Jul 2005 17:25 - 462 of 1497

og

Think this might be the start of the next leg up, although I may be jumping the gun (again!). Whether right or wrong, have bought a few more today at a much better price than before, so am slowly building again. Very tight stop loss set, just in case the news is not what we would wish for.

pth

overgrowth - 07 Jul 2005 13:57 - 463 of 1497

I see Mediwatch made an article in Shares mag. today in the "Results Round Up" feature.

At the end of the results summary:

"Shares says: An entry to the US market is key, so the Medtronic distribution agreement would be a big plus."

Well I think we knew that lol !

Though it will help to highlight MDW to people who may have never noticed them before.

With that in mind, you could well be right pth that this is the start of the next leg up and it feels good to have a large chunk of MDW in my long term portfolio.

I'd like to put on another T+ trade also, though am tempted to leave it until the morning the deal news comes out as I believe there will be very heavy buying on that day.

Decisions, decisions...

ptholden - 07 Jul 2005 14:20 - 464 of 1497

Haven't read the mag yet, but every bit of exposure helps. Still have an itch to buy some more, but will wait for things to settle down a bit.

By the way, thanks for the RNS link OG, all set up and waiting for my first bit of news, you never know it might be MDW!

pth

overgrowth - 07 Jul 2005 14:51 - 465 of 1497

The news link is really handy - I've only been using it for a couple of weeks myself.

There's plenty of potential news on the way for MDW so let's hope so.

Did you see the advfn comments by "the hangman" (he works within the industry - though not actually at MDW) ? He believes that MDW are still likely to sign a large Japanese contract soon - if it's true, then that's even more good news to look forward to !

jnknill - 07 Jul 2005 15:57 - 466 of 1497

OG, Read "the hanghan,s post", did you also note that he doubted MDW would progress in US at this time! His main reason was he felt that in US the margins are squeezed to almost nothing and didn,t think MDW were of the size to compete. Surely MDW Management would take on board all probable/possible drawbacks prior to entering into talks?

overgrowth - 07 Jul 2005 16:14 - 467 of 1497

jnknill - I did read that part also and suspected that hangman was alluding to a possible takeover bid by Medtronic.

From what I've seen of Medtronic's product range (and I don't think that hangman has done this level of research - though williedoc knows the score), there is a huge gap in their urological diagnostics portfolio, just waiting to be filled by PSAWatch. Margins are squeezed when there are competing products on the market, but the nearest thing to PSAWatch costs many times the price for the equipment and consumables and requires the consultant to fiddle around putting swab samples into a centrifuge playing the role of lab technician.

It's uneconomincal for Medtronic to mess around taking over small companies - particularly when they're not on home territory.

I have every confidence in the MDW board's negotiating skills and their vision for the company and I believe that they will come back from the negotiating table with a very good deal indeed.

In comparison to other diagnostics equipment, PSAWatch is very low cost and guarantees regular repeat sales from the PSA test stick consumables - these constant repeat sales will be a perfect marketing opportunity for Medtronic to keep in regular (active) contact with their customers.

jnknill - 07 Jul 2005 16:43 - 468 of 1497

OG, Thanks for that clarification, certainly many reasons which enhance the MDW product/marketing etc. You also mention "williedoc", a wealth of knowledge and always has the metaphorical "finger on the pulse". Rgds.

ptholden - 08 Jul 2005 12:09 - 469 of 1497

Continued signs of life if we disregard yesterday's influenece on the market as a whole.

pth

ptholden - 13 Jul 2005 08:35 - 470 of 1497

strong start to the day

pth
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