for more information about stanelco click on the links.

driver's research page link
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=7681#lastread
website link
http://www.stanelco.co.uk/index.htm

In response to post 4524, encouraging investors to be cautious about BBs makes sense but to then to try to justify that by purposely mis-stating the potential of, for instance, the Asda deal (100-200 units!) shows that the purpose of the warning is being made for selfish gain , not out of any altruism. Most on this thread would take serious issue with being regarded as pumpers and dumpers, the more so, because it is an accusation made by a few who clearly want to short and smear SEO. SEO has the clear potential to really take off the moment it can confirm to the market its first order. I doubt that it will be long before that happens.

Virtually all of us want SEO to succeed both short and long term, to stay with it and be happy for others to join what should be a very enjoyable ride as the company gets its IPR into products directly or via licences. The lack of further news last week should not in my view be seen as cause for concern; better to take the time to get the deal you want rather than rush it and regret it later.

Attempts to quantify the financial gain from the companys products by some have been helpful, interesting and useful. Ive tried as well but have given up until the company can show what terms it can get; it just looks very rosy for SEO whatever reasonable assumptions are made. In my opinion any calculations made now and which might be believed as credible will probably turn out to be far too conservative as this unfolds; there are just so many areas and applications for SEO to go at with their product range.

A mention in the telegraph yesterday:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2005/05/20/cxmktrep20.xml&sSheet=/money/2005/05/20/ixfrontmarkets.html

Companies dont grow solidly in todays climate until they make a PROFIT and give back cash to investors usually via dividends, the short term rises from over enthusiasm rarely stick for long, with noteable exceptions, maybe this is one who knows.
I and other cautious folk have as good a chance of being correct as those who
yell 1 tomorrow.
Its never out of place to remind investors that you are merely buying future dividend returns, not some pie in the sky vision by " experts", no matter how bright they are about the mechanics of the product-Telewest, Marconi,etc. all had good products

PER ARDUA AD ASTRA

if, and it seems to be the number seo are promoting, asda sign up for retro-fit on 200 machines, that means they are perfectly willing to sign over 50% of their packaging needs to seo and greenseal. (asda have 400 machines). that's not bad for a first deal.

"Companies dont grow solidly in todays climate until they make a PROFIT and give back cash to investors usually via dividends, the short term rises from over enthusiasm rarely stick for long, with noteable exceptions, maybe this is one who knows."

i'll qoute sequestor as he does talk some sense . maybe seo is one. thats what some here believe, that's why we have INVESTED our money in seo. most here have a long term view. short term price hikes are wonderful and exciting , short term price dips are disappointing. BUT WHAT A RIDE!! as has been said before, if want to wait for solid growth ,profits, and dividends, cash in the bank and a full order book; fantastic! if you like the story, buy now and leave it for a few years. it's your money.

btw, what a good looking graph!!!

Chap called Truckingduck on ADVFN just came up with a great anagram for Stanelco - CANT LOSE

Utterly irrelevant I know, but I like it.

very good , chiva.

Here is another

STALE CON!!!!!

or

LEAST CON!!!

Taken from the link below today

check it here for yourself
http://www.lemminginvestor.com/FreeStuff.html


Stanelco (SEO) 28.50p

Wal-Mart speculation - Market valuation

Since we initiated coverage of Stanelco, (SEO) at 5p on November 7, 2003. Due to the collaboration with Aquasol - A partnership that would enable detergent capsule manufacturers to become low-cost producers of detergent capsules for laundry and home care applications, whilst at the same time improving the quality of their products and speed of manufacture, also enable SEO to accelerate development plans for RF technology. The excitement
surrounding SEO now is due to SEO`s revolutionary GREENSEAL tray-lidding technology and the successful trials with ASDA. We now have unconfirmed BB gossip, which suggests Wal-Mart will soon follow ASDA. We know Wal-Mart have been watching ASDA`s lead.


Let us look at some facts
Though I have not seen a pack in the market place, there is little doubt that the ASDA trials have been successful. Had there been leakage, or some kind of adverse symptom, it would have been all over these pages. For the same reason, we must be looking at something like the promised 20% saving in packaging material cost and a lot higher saving in energy - Howard White is
quoting 75% and explains that the system seals at only 50 C degrees.

Looking at the whole of SEO 2004 losses as overhead on the current business, the accounts suggest a current maximum running at the rate of 3m /pa, possibly much lower. The current capitalisation of around 250m for a technology of such influence on the global economy is probably justified in our opinion by a PE of 30 and thus by a profit after tax of 8m. The asking rate for royalty of 35,000/pa is likely to reduce to 25,000 for ASDA type bulk contracts and
thus needs 320 machines to justify the 8m.

We have also heard that the hardware for retrofitting just about 'washes its face at $25,000 per installation' - but targets and hopefully leaves a one off profit of 5,000 - which should cover 50 -75% of the previous overheads and operating losses So the ASDA deal roughly sustains the current share price on its own. So whether Wal-mart makes an announcement or not, the price
reflects no more than the existing ASDA requirement. You get Frog Pack, Cradlewrap Aquasol,Adept Polymers and Starpol, Solutape,.... and Wal-mart for nothing. Not to mention that the market everyone is referring to is just Europe and N America. The world's second largest market lies in Japan - not yet mentioned nor is any of the packaging requirement in Taiwan, S.Korea, Australia N/Z, S.Africa, Brazil, etc etc..........None of these are yet factored in - probably because it is unrealistic to expect their requirements to be capable of being addressed for at least 2/3 years whilst SEO attain their stated objective to fit 27,000 machines and much less than
half of the global market by then.

cheers HM

SEO sp is a good ride but never been so relaxed about a share that I own, down days don't frighten me, just buying opportunites. Every time I think about the massive potential in so many areas I wish I'd had the courage to invest even more money last year, never mind mustn't grumble. My only problem is that this thread is now going round and round with same points being made over and over again in defence against the traders. Sequestor's point is that if it does go tits up the sp will suffer, valid but the point that a penny share can't be worth a quid is not. Check out the potential profits and there is also no way that a tech share turning in huge profits will have a PE <5. We'll just have to wait and see who is right but its a long term hold for me, the potential and future is just too exciting to get out now.

olie
lets not get TOO friendly.LOL

what REALLY bugs me about this is that NO-ONE will accept there is a downside.

and there SURELY is.

but hpoefully not before im rich.

Hi superrod. There's a challenge! There's always a downside. Worth asking what the short-term and long-term downsides are with SEO. My early career was with IBM and I don't think any of us could see a downside. There wasn't really anything until around 1980 when the company made a fundamental mistake: rather than persevere with their own PC operating system they reckoned the easy way was to adopt one produced by a tiny company called microsoft! Will SEO always make the right calls - of course not.

Re the short term, have they and are they making the right calls? Well, they appear to have been over-optimistic on the ASDA timeframe, expecting three trials to be performed in April. Still, it appears, only in their second trial. Machine(s) have been retrofitted and performed well and are clearly still supplying the stores - but haven't been paid for. Are they being strung along by ASDA? Perhaps to an extent they are. So what is the short-term downside? Could this process go on and the whole process take far longer than the market expects?

Any negative thoughts about speed of start-up have to be balanced by the benefits from the extended period with successful trials, independently audited and with excellent newsflow. This has clarified the potential for the product and increased the commitment of ASDA. Eventually the trial period will complete and the exclusivity period will start. It has to be in ASDA's interest to then maximise the speed of roll-out so that they can capitalise on their market lead. This process and the attendant publicity has clearly strengthened SEO's hand in US negotiations. It seems obvious that Wal-Mart should want an exclusivity period themselves but it is unlikely that their competition will sit back and let that happen unless Wal-Mart commitment is as rumoured. We haven't seen SEO's hand of cards, but we have seen cards played, e.g. the Premier and Advanced cards - hardly likely to be speculative, but rather suggesting that negotiations have been progressing behind the scene to land their first US contract.

I don't know whether I have made much of a fist of thinking about the downside. It probably comes down to pace of build up, but competitive pressures with the supermarkets tends to lessen such risk. Down the line is competition, potential copyright issues. It is perhaps surprising that the sp has moved so fast, but is there another share in the market which has the apparent potential based on a new technology that promises to revolutionise the conduct of a major industry and with a price structure so favourable to the technology company?

Eric

longer process time......
slower speed of start up......
i don't think that it will matter IF the product lives up to all that has been said about it.

If the cost and energy savings are true.
If the higher sales and longer shelf life of products are true.
Then, why would ASDA not be telling ALL suppliers to convert ??
What would be the point of them only converting 50% or 30% or 20% or anything below 100% of their suppliers machines ????
Why would Walmart not follow ????
Why would every other supermarket chain not follow ????

Although I too think that this shit is very very high risk.......i then tend to begin thinking about blue skies..........the rewards over the next 2 years will be massive, if the product comes through these 3 trials - which we would expect will be the case, because i doubt that SEO hasn't already done these trials for themselves.....i think that the ASDA trials simply reflect the "real-life" situation whereby you have REAL customers purchasing and consuming.....

Eric
thanks for your informative and honest post. as i said i am an seo bull, so obviously hope this is the next MS, TETRAPAK. such companies are the holy grail of investors. i look forward to this trading in pounds rather than pennies.
seo really is different.....let anyone check their monitor....these days investment in the true sense is a rare thing. we are mostly ( thanks to technology ) winning or losing from other "investors" minus the mm cut of course. however, wealth CAN be created. i have no doubts that this company has the potential to covert leads to sales which is what the true investor is looking for.
regards
Rod

i agree , andys. it's all getting repetitive. superrod, everyone knows the downside. it's been done to death!

Eric,
Private email to you re "trader".

Eric,
first class post from you as usual, have followed with much interest this bb,
many thanks. SD

Having watched the pump and dump crew this week pull their final first stage ramps to gain an exit at 29p-30p it is obvious why it is known that an RNS is due Monday or early next week so to ramp last week meant that no statement would be required on the rise as one was pending as an RNS is pending this fuels the ramp as then they claim there is no statement on the rise as its all true expert ramp timing. This write up is nothing spectacular just an IMO.

Three options for Monday and none include any Walmart deal

1/ No RNS Nearly impossible IMO as the SE0 have avoided having to comment on the large rise as an RNS is coming Monday or not long after (any delay in release can only be that they claim to be in commercial negotiation with Asda suppliers and therefore unable to comment as news is coming soon)

2/ RNS Bad news given the ramping - Simple update on trial talk of salads, pasta and chicken and reiterate that commercial discussion are ongoing more delays to a final agreement of these commercial discussions will be bad news meaning more discounting or much lower numbers of machines IMO or potentially no agreement at all. More delays may indicate that SEO are being strung along by Asda who may commit to only a few of the thousands of suppliers machinery being converted.

3/ RNS Good news if the SP was in the 4p to 9p range but bad if above 9p Negotiations are in the final stage and the Asda supplier order quantity will be IMO 50 to 200 in total around 50 to 100 in 2005 and around 0 to 130 in 2006. This may be loose with words like initial hope but it will be the final amount IMO you do not have a years exclusivity to then not use it. This 50 to 200 order may fulfill the older RNSs as the contract value may be, - over 5 year time period - in excess of 5M (did someone forget to put the time scale in that old RNS ? ;-) ) Many wrongly assumed that the Asda contract is 5M in one year the expect to be in excess of 5M meant over a time period. It will put an end to massive overvaluing as people can see the reality especially if its lower.

On number 1 bad news given the ramp and forget Walmart.

On number 2 bad news given the ramp and forget Walmart.

On number 3 bad news given the ramp this will also be bad news as it will define the extent of where practical in the older RNS and this being perhaps just only 50 to 200 machines in total for Asda (the rampers have been saying Asda alone would support the SP and be thousands of machines) . If this is the news will they not mention the contract amounts ? Can we see the total contract value and over how many years ? Refer back to my previous post on margins if the figures on machine quantities or contract value or definition of contract value over time period are missing expect the figures to be below KBC Peel forecast IMO. As you know from the spin you do not hide anything potentially positive to a price rise. Many rampers have been saying Asda supplier order alone (and Asda suppliers may be the only ones ever to use this) would support the SP and be around 1000 machines now what if its confirmed at just 100 or 200 machines ?

(The following is rumour and therefore not in any claimed to be true - there may be additional news about talks with Tetrapak over clarifications regarding any potential infringements on patents and the like with the other pack this was a rumour floating around as was highlighted late last week as an addition in speculation by some people after the Walmart contract ramping earlier in the week. The rampers were quoting the rumored talks were that Tetrapak are to buy Frogpack but it may be completely different in that its a disagreement over issues or indeed there has been no talks at all. It should be noted this is only rumour and should be discarded unless the rumour proves to have any substance)

So not good news all round potentially given the ramping of a Walmart deal this is why they need to feed in old news again as new and ramp Frogpack - by the rampers. The packaging world new about the RF sealing long ago during the trials at Oscar Mayer which went nowhere it was reported months ago in many packaging news articles and so why suddenly is there another mass release of the same old article slightly changed ?? A certain person openly admits he emails all his research to all companies in food packaging and news wires all RNS other news articles to try to get them to print the news again he needs the constant news articles to quote from old news on a different news site he uses to reassure people. A certain person started all this speculation on everything to get people to think this small loss making firm has massive potential that in reality it may well not have at all IMO they may simply be able to make a small profit from a few machine orders. From clapped out to incredible optimism ? Words like Holy Grail Best Thing Ever all helps to make the dream a dream akin to winning the lottery well if its too good to be true it generally is and there appears to be no substance to talk of thousands of machine conversions its a hope and thats it - may be simply trying to extend the dream longer to get the price higher and support it.

Other subjects no doubt more spouting from another person about perhaps increased salad/pasta/chicken sales as its now Spring time and hot weather (does salad/pasta/chicken normally increase in sales at this time of year?) and nice bright coloured packaging and ideal placement in stores sorry its the sealing thats caused the rise as its yummy fresh.

So back to the ramp someone has made a gunpowder keg they need to keep the constant spin going to support the price and the hand in hand news feed drip along with tipsters has allowed this but they have been pressured recently - with a more realistic alternate view being posted - and with them knowing IMO the news coming would not be that good and could potentially undo their ramping by putting things into perspective they needed to turn the spin up to maximum to prevent more people seeing there are two sides to this story- and now the fuse (designed to be lit nearer a higher preferred exit price IMO) was lit by someone else with a rumour of Walmart which given the constant spin being put around by the ramping crew everyone swallowed .

Some people seem to have forgotten that other companies are the world leaders in MAP packaging MAP machinery is not a Stanelco product they simply have a new type of sealing which is claimed from results from only Asda trials to reduce leakage and give a tighter seal. Stanelco do not produce MAP machines they have a bolt on kit to change from heat sealing to RF sealing thats all a simple RF sealing head to fit to a MAP or non MAP machine made by someone else.

The major failing with new ideas like this and others is that companies will not accept high license fees or pay per use they make great revenue fantasies but in reality are not acceptable to the masses. So many good ideas lie in patent archives as the owner wants for example 1p per use or annual fee so the big companies just ignore it.

If we do get this news on an Asda suppliers contract and its confirmed just a small amount of machine conversions this will blow away the hype to a large degree do not forget the company have not promised thousands of machine conversions the pump and dump crew have been doing this to ramp the price up so if it is Asda news I am sure the company are extremely happy and pleased to let us know but the pump and dump crews promises will be the hype blown away. If its to the KBC figures then 100 machines is worth 2.5p on the price up from 4p so a 100 order makes the price ok at 6.5p and 200 makes it ok at 9p if the margins are less than KBC estimated then the effect is much less.

I may be wrong and all the above is IMO but we shall soon find out on Monday or not long after..

Interims are in June and my guess is for this presently 250M market cap company

Turnover circa 100,000 pounds IMO
Loss - circa 1,400,000 pounds IMO

IMO they are still on for another dilution by additional listing to raise cash will this be there too on Monday ? or will it wait for a few more weeks ?

(Off subject a little The spin is simple to clear if a claim is made with no datums or reference data with all changes noted and open - then it is worth nothing. If I were to design a new car and claim up to 500mpg and say nothing with this I would be right if I put the car on a 500 mile downhill slope and run it in neutral. This is the kind of spin you see coming from certain companies nowadays all up to and no average. This is very similar to if I say my new car has savings in parts use of 300% - with no other data or comparison if questioned I can say the comparison is to a 1960s car. If I call Chelsea FC and ask them the price of a season ticket then say I will call them back about the price does that mean I am in discussion with Chelski or in commercial discussions or commercial negotiations with Chelski ? It means nothing but can be claimed as anything.)

Back to Stanelco -

Quotes of savings in press news is sales pitch I am quite sure the latest MAP heat sealing machines have minimal waste and excellent sealing and perhaps an RF head on these will make little to no difference but an RF head on a 10 year old machine tray lidding machine might give you some benefits and savings and improvements. The way I see things Staneclo have a retrofit kit for RF sealing that will be good to upgrade quite old machines and has limited potential for sales as such this will be proved IMO by the small quantity of Asda supplier orders if Asda suppliers are forced to change this again depends on the discounts on supply per tray that Asda can get of they cannot push the supplier prices down we could see even less machine conversions.

There is NO chance given the rumour last week - of any news on deals with Walmart IMO this was rumour started to spike the share price to allow people to exit high. We all knew from January that the sales staff should be approaching and talking to every potential customer so to state in discussions with major supermarkets is nothing what it needs is confirmed orders not just more spin and in discussions that means nothing. That there have been misunderstandings in associating to Walmart is purely the pump and dump crew posting a massive amount of information all over the WWW on all different BBs under all different names to get people to think its possible and coming very soon.

The SP may drop on Monday it may drop massively it may not drop who knows now it will be clear next week but a very very very large risk is now there and the price is massively overvalued - there is potential to spin this further with other speculative comments and that require no hard contract order proof I hope we do not see more of this now would be a good time to for the ramp and hype to be cleaned up and a realistic appraisal put over but I fear we might be just in for more and more hype I do hope not it will drag this saga on an on but ever closer to the final truth.

The last comment goes to techtrend which I thought was a very apt post

techtrend - 20 May'05 - 16:51

I think they'll be a lot of people waiting for Monday only to wish it never came... There are always exceptions but in my experience the combination of these factors usually ends in tears:

1. A product with seemingly limitless potential
2. BB posters doing back of fag packet calculations assuming every single possible customer in every possible market will convert
3. Loss making companies trying to win over multi-nationals
4. Endless hand-holding RNS's from the company on every step of the way to keep interest high
5. Huge PI interest with no new institutional interest
6. A target date set for a "stellar" announcement
7. Tips in national papers stating huge potential rumours- all carefully coordinated
8. A sky high share price with no revenues to back it up

Guess what's next? The same people who orchestrated the whole thing prick the bubble and double their money on the way down.


There are many classic charts of pump and dump activity from BB posts up it goes keeps going up then stops and comes right back down on reality. Will this be another one tomorrow next week next month a few months later time will tell.

DYOR !

Share bashing can seriously damage your wealth.

http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/ShowPostList?fID=1&tID=5028

.