Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Nigel is a rabble rouser and not much more. Their policies are stupid.

UKIP is not a political party. It is a one policy pressure group similar to the Green party.

Their policies are stupid Such as ? having trade agreements with the EU , trading with the rest of the World , passing our own law's , saying who enters our country and deporting those who commit serious crimes here.

Read their policies apart from the ones to do with EU. It matters little as they will won't have the ability to implement any of them. Getting even a handful of seats will gain them nothing.

Even if they were part of a coalition with Farage being a Minister

They wouldn't be part of a coalition. The Clacton wierdos might be in favour of UKIP, but they are consistently polling between 12% and 18% which is below the level to get any MPs. In a coalition even with two MPs or a couple more they would be a very junior part of a three way coalition as the Libs will get more seats than UKIP. Their influence would be virtually non existent. The parties are more likely to just call another election rather than have a coalition with UKIP.

So we are most certainly going to get lots of new UKIP votes. Where are they going to come from?

1. Labour?
2. Tories?
3. Lib Dems?
4. All three of the above?
5. If so, mainly from which party?

Obviously, if Carswell does get re-elected, but as a UKIP member, he will have stolen a massive vote from the Tories, who previously gave him a stonking majority as a Tory.

The media says a 44% swing is likely from the latest poll.

The media also says such a swing would create a political earthquake.

The bottom line for me, is that UKIP are now going to do much, much better than we thought. Now since UKIP leans to the right, I forecast another coalition government, but this time between the Tories and UKIP with the Lib Dems getting (quite rightly) kicked completely into touch.

Then we will get a Referendum - because, amongst other things, Farage will demand it to get the coalition deal. I think he will get this deal too, because his party looks like getting loads of new Tory defectors ,who will align more easily back to the Tories rather than towards any coalition with Labour.

Then we will also get what we want out of the EU and probably stay in the EU.

Well I hope that Carswell and UKIP do win Clacton. Cameron deserves a bloody nose imo, for being such a namby-pamby and this could be the wake up call he so desperately needs. If Cameron wants the Great British public to give him power in 2015, why is he then making them wait 2 years for the referendum they are calling for?

But to think that Clacton is indicative of the rest of the UK is wide of the mark. It's a seaside town in Essex which is full of angry white British retirees who read the Daily Mail.

The reality is that UKIP may take Clacton. The Libs will still get lots of seats and UKIP won't. If there is a coaliutioin again for the Conservatives then it will be with the Libs again.

The reality is: UKIP are going to take lots of votes off all the main party's.

Sitting MP's with small majorities are very likely shitting themselves, and that alone is going to make things interesting.

The above is certainly true. UKIP will take votes from other parties and may alter the results in individual constituencies. Tbe Conservative party will almost certainly be most affected. However, the upset in voting patterns is unlikely to generate any MPs for UKIP. This does make for a silly situation where UKIP voters are likely to deny themselves a referendum by letting a Labour government get elected. You could end up up with the worst result for UKIPers; no MPs, a Labour government with increased federalism and NO referendum.

" If Cameron wants the Great British public to give him power in 2015, why is he then making them wait 2 years for the referendum they are calling for?".......ends

Spot on Hillary. Its barmy to say the least and one as to think what was the thinking here??? Any ideas???????? Why 2017!!!

Delay and pray. 2017 is just a fob off attempt.


The truth is, there could be a referendum in November, it's the probable result they are frightened of.

He is waiting two years for the referendum to give time for negotiations. There are things that the public don't like about the current EU. You have to remember that plenty of people want to stay in the EU (including Cameron). There are also people who will want to stay in if we get better terns. Currently, a vote would be very close with staying in slightly more likely. When people say that they want a referendum now, what they really mean is that they want to leave the EU now. That just isn't going to happen. A realistic scenario is that the Conservatives could win, have discussions with the EU about terms and then have a referendum. Cameron would campaign for staying in because he is in favour of the EU. Anyone who is old enough to remember will know that when we had the referendum to join the EU (Common Market), the government's position was to recommend joining.

It would be very bad strategy for Cameron to have a referendum now. The unique selling point for the Conservatives is that they are the only party that can give a referendum after the GE. If Cameron had a referendum now, it removes a major reason to vote Conservative. It would also give no time for renegotiations. It would also make it difficult for Cameron to recommend staying in.

Dear God in heaven, what drugs are you taking?

LSD

I personally don't accept that it takes two years to negotiate better terms with the EU before the UK public get the referendum they so desperately want. I think that Cameron is fudging because he's waiting for the EZ crisis to blow over in the hope that everything will be forgotten about by 2017. It should take 12 months at most to hold a referendum (they held it that quickly for the referendum on AV in 2011), and, if mainland Europe really wanted the UK to stay, they would make their offer of improved terms within that timeframe.

And I think that Cameron is missing a trick here. If he were to stand up and make a keynote speech within the next couple of months to the effect that, conditional upon him being re-elected with an overall majority in May 2015, he would hold an EU referendum within 12 months at the outside, nearly all of that UKIP vote would return to the nest. It doesn't (or shouldn't) matter whether Cameron wants to stay inside the EU or not himself, or what the outcome of the referendum might be. The fact is that politicians are elected to best represent the wishes of the electorate, and, right now, the British public want a referendum and they're going to vote for the person or party who, they think, will give them a referendum.

You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. Right now, the British people clearly feel that they're being made fools of!

DavCam is blowing smoke up your ass: there is no renegotiation




NO renegotiation on EU migration, says defiant President Jose Manuel Barroso

THERE will be NO negotiation on the EU's freedom of movement laws, European President Jose Manuel Barroso said today, as he revealed David Cameron has yet to put forward any proposals for treaty change.



By: Owen Bennett - Political Reporter
Published: Sun, February 16, 2014


http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/460056/NO-negotiation-of-freedom-of-movement-says-defiant-EU-President-Jose-Manuel-Barroso

If we make the Romanians leave the UK, who instead is going to make such a fantastic job of cleaning my car for a mere £5? Well, £6 including the tip.

In the immediate area I have a choice of about 9 of these places too. Seriously, they're all really good.