Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

So we are most certainly going to get lots of new UKIP votes. Where are they going to come from?

1. Labour?
2. Tories?
3. Lib Dems?
4. All three of the above?
5. If so, mainly from which party?

Obviously, if Carswell does get re-elected, but as a UKIP member, he will have stolen a massive vote from the Tories, who previously gave him a stonking majority as a Tory.

The media says a 44% swing is likely from the latest poll.

The media also says such a swing would create a political earthquake.

The bottom line for me, is that UKIP are now going to do much, much better than we thought. Now since UKIP leans to the right, I forecast another coalition government, but this time between the Tories and UKIP with the Lib Dems getting (quite rightly) kicked completely into touch.

Then we will get a Referendum - because, amongst other things, Farage will demand it to get the coalition deal. I think he will get this deal too, because his party looks like getting loads of new Tory defectors ,who will align more easily back to the Tories rather than towards any coalition with Labour.

Then we will also get what we want out of the EU and probably stay in the EU.

Well I hope that Carswell and UKIP do win Clacton. Cameron deserves a bloody nose imo, for being such a namby-pamby and this could be the wake up call he so desperately needs. If Cameron wants the Great British public to give him power in 2015, why is he then making them wait 2 years for the referendum they are calling for?

But to think that Clacton is indicative of the rest of the UK is wide of the mark. It's a seaside town in Essex which is full of angry white British retirees who read the Daily Mail.

The reality is that UKIP may take Clacton. The Libs will still get lots of seats and UKIP won't. If there is a coaliutioin again for the Conservatives then it will be with the Libs again.

The reality is: UKIP are going to take lots of votes off all the main party's.

Sitting MP's with small majorities are very likely shitting themselves, and that alone is going to make things interesting.

The above is certainly true. UKIP will take votes from other parties and may alter the results in individual constituencies. Tbe Conservative party will almost certainly be most affected. However, the upset in voting patterns is unlikely to generate any MPs for UKIP. This does make for a silly situation where UKIP voters are likely to deny themselves a referendum by letting a Labour government get elected. You could end up up with the worst result for UKIPers; no MPs, a Labour government with increased federalism and NO referendum.

" If Cameron wants the Great British public to give him power in 2015, why is he then making them wait 2 years for the referendum they are calling for?".......ends

Spot on Hillary. Its barmy to say the least and one as to think what was the thinking here??? Any ideas???????? Why 2017!!!

Delay and pray. 2017 is just a fob off attempt.


The truth is, there could be a referendum in November, it's the probable result they are frightened of.

He is waiting two years for the referendum to give time for negotiations. There are things that the public don't like about the current EU. You have to remember that plenty of people want to stay in the EU (including Cameron). There are also people who will want to stay in if we get better terns. Currently, a vote would be very close with staying in slightly more likely. When people say that they want a referendum now, what they really mean is that they want to leave the EU now. That just isn't going to happen. A realistic scenario is that the Conservatives could win, have discussions with the EU about terms and then have a referendum. Cameron would campaign for staying in because he is in favour of the EU. Anyone who is old enough to remember will know that when we had the referendum to join the EU (Common Market), the government's position was to recommend joining.

It would be very bad strategy for Cameron to have a referendum now. The unique selling point for the Conservatives is that they are the only party that can give a referendum after the GE. If Cameron had a referendum now, it removes a major reason to vote Conservative. It would also give no time for renegotiations. It would also make it difficult for Cameron to recommend staying in.

Dear God in heaven, what drugs are you taking?

LSD

I personally don't accept that it takes two years to negotiate better terms with the EU before the UK public get the referendum they so desperately want. I think that Cameron is fudging because he's waiting for the EZ crisis to blow over in the hope that everything will be forgotten about by 2017. It should take 12 months at most to hold a referendum (they held it that quickly for the referendum on AV in 2011), and, if mainland Europe really wanted the UK to stay, they would make their offer of improved terms within that timeframe.

And I think that Cameron is missing a trick here. If he were to stand up and make a keynote speech within the next couple of months to the effect that, conditional upon him being re-elected with an overall majority in May 2015, he would hold an EU referendum within 12 months at the outside, nearly all of that UKIP vote would return to the nest. It doesn't (or shouldn't) matter whether Cameron wants to stay inside the EU or not himself, or what the outcome of the referendum might be. The fact is that politicians are elected to best represent the wishes of the electorate, and, right now, the British public want a referendum and they're going to vote for the person or party who, they think, will give them a referendum.

You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. Right now, the British people clearly feel that they're being made fools of!

DavCam is blowing smoke up your ass: there is no renegotiation




NO renegotiation on EU migration, says defiant President Jose Manuel Barroso

THERE will be NO negotiation on the EU's freedom of movement laws, European President Jose Manuel Barroso said today, as he revealed David Cameron has yet to put forward any proposals for treaty change.



By: Owen Bennett - Political Reporter
Published: Sun, February 16, 2014


http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/460056/NO-negotiation-of-freedom-of-movement-says-defiant-EU-President-Jose-Manuel-Barroso

If we make the Romanians leave the UK, who instead is going to make such a fantastic job of cleaning my car for a mere £5? Well, £6 including the tip.

In the immediate area I have a choice of about 9 of these places too. Seriously, they're all really good.

There is a movement to say that there will not be a referendum. This is the mantra of the left to remove the potential advantage of offering one. It would be impossible for Cameron to cancel a referendum due to the reaction of his party. He knows that his government would not survive for more than a few days.

Later this year there is going to be the referendum enabling Bill brought back to the Commons. It will force the Libs to support it or be seen to vote it down. Cameron has committed himself to using the Parliament Act to force it into law if it loses the vote.

If Cameron gets elected you WILL get a referendum.

What drugs is he on???.

And if a truly wondrous thing happened and UKIP got elected we might still stay in the EU - but bet your last GBP, Euro or US Dollar the terms of doing so would be dramatically altered, or we would be out.

Am I missing something here? Other than having a peaceful relationship (ie. no chance of war!) with the rest of the EU members, what are the main things that mean we must stay as members?

Free movement of people within the EU? No.
Trading Relationships and Rules? Hmmm? No! I don't believe this one. It's rhetoric.

Taken from: Here

This is what they were considered to be for Poland joining:

Political benefits:

Participation in creating of United Europe; Polish representation in EU Institutions; Increase of the stability of democratic system and safety of the state. No boundaries among all EU countries, no passwords or visas necessary, easy travelling, possibility to move to any member country and find a job everywhere in a membership country (free transfer of persons). This would lead also to the tightening of the cultural bonds with the rest of Europe.

Economic benefits:

Free transfer of goods, freedom to provide services, free transfer of capital; Unification of economical laws in all EU countries. In more detail: the EU economy would open the EU borders into Polish products and our market would open to the products of other European countries. This should lead to more competitive market and lowering the prices. The common currency, Euro, will be enforced. It would protect us against the hyperinflation and instability on the monetary market, in banks and saving accounts.
Change of the structure of the farms from many small farms to less bigger farms with better equipment and efficiency. Increase of the specialization in the farming. Our farmers would participate in a system of subvention, the same that benefits the Western European farmers.

Social benefits:

Poland will approach European standards in the aspect of the safety of its citizens, job safety, health, education, information and the higher quality of life in the general aspect. Polish students could participate in the educational programs which give stipends for studying abroad. Children of people who would be working abroad would be able to attend local schools. But they would also be encouraged to develop their knowledge about their country of origin.

Environmental benefits:

Poland will implement European ecological norms that will improve the environment and the quality of the life of our society. The ecology-friendly technologies will be implemented as well as the most rational and effective use of rough materials and the energy.

Haystack,

I know that. You know that. But the problem facing Cameron right now is that the public don't even understand what all the gobbledegook about the EU Referendum Enabling Bill means, vis-a-vis the posts from Maxk et al on this thread.

The public just want their referendum now, they mistakenly think that Cameron is the person to blame for them not getting their referendum now, and, as a result of the accompanying negative publicity, I really do think that Cameron needs to go on a PR offensive of his own pdq to explain things about the EU in simple talk to Joe Public that they will understand, in an attempt to quell the rising in the ranks and to get some folks back on-side before it's too late.

Eurosceptic Tory MP Chris Kelly quits

Conservative MP for Dudley South wishes Ukip defector Douglas Carswell best of luck as he joins list of party departures



Rowena Mason, political correspondent


theguardian.com, Monday 1 September 2014 12.23 BST



http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/01/eurosceptic-tory-conservative-mp-chris-kelly-quits

Hilary.

Cameroon has had over 4 years to do his enabling act.

Why now?