Will this increase or decrease the likelihood of terrorist actions in America, Europe and the rest of the world?

If you were a member of a family murdered in this conflict, would you be seeking revenge?

Should Tzipi Livni and Ehud Olmert, be tried for war crimes if or when this conflict comes to an end?

What will the price of oil be in 4 weeks time?

The stock market here and in the US was unaffected on Friday, though the yen headed south

That was because the Japan stock exchange was closed, and before the extent of the situation.

Over 1300 now dead, with over 10,000 missing persons, talk of Japan going into recession
and the total cost being $100 billion plus the threat of a meltdown.

If you think this will not effect stock's, and indices around the world on Monday then I am afraid you are in the minority. Let's see Monday.

Tragedy in Japan could play into the shorters hands all round on Monday i'm afraid.

All markets will open down on Monday.

BM

Did you short on Friday.

Non-interference in Libya partially due to the debacle in Iraq and also not wishing to "upset" the Arab states by "re-colinisation" and the possibility of increasingly rapid oil price rises.

Also, the "West" are already overstretched militarily and economically.

Another problem. is that the "opposition" have no obvious leadership or direction. There does seem to be a concentration of leadership developing.b

But sending the uncoordinated youth into battle is madness, unless you believe there is a value to martyrdom.

Sad.

Just wonder, whether Tunisia may intervene. Egypt is unlikely to, as only one of its "leadership or governing body's" heads have been cut off.

Ummh.

London markets poised for sell-off after earthquake in Japan
Markets are braced for a sell-off on Monday in the wake of the human and economic devastation wreaked by Japan's worst ever earthquake.

11:24PM GMT 13 Mar 2011

Analysts said as much as 30bn could be wiped off share prices in London as the stock market slumps 2pc.
Nikkei futures were down 5pc as the Japanese authorities stressed that markets would remain open. A ban on naked short-selling is being enacted to stabilise stocks and prevent speculators profiting from the tragedy.

David Buik, at broker BGC Partners, said: "With factories shut, this necessary remedial action will adversely affect Japan's economy dramatically."
He forecast a global stock markets sell-off of 2pc, a figure echoed by Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the Centre for Economic and Business Research.

Paul Donovan, a senior global economist at UBS, said investors haven't seen this level of political risk in markets for 20 years and won't be sure how to deal with it.

Bernard - hope you didn't marry money with mouth as you might have found yourself badly singed

Fred - i think for once you and i are almost singing from the same hymn sheet ..... what do you see happening next with libya and the arab world etc? .... i rather fear the "rebels" will be sacrificed with a token air exclusion zone imposed for show ..... medium/longer term i am sure there will be severe economic sanctions imposed on libya, but given the ease with which these are usually circumvented, i have my doubts as to their true efficacy - guess it looks good to the gullible though

Looks all red to me C was I wrong.

Cynic,

How do you feel about coming of age.

8-~)


BM.

I thought the market would open a lot lower, but surprised that some of my holdings are blue.

Almost considered being contrary, as usual, but will hold and watch for time being.

and a lot of mine are blue too .... only minutely down since friday close

Fred - so long as you stay off the palestinian rant it's ok - apart from anything else, that only encourages haystack and the other loonies ..... but do you agree with what i wrote about libya?

Cynic,

As Hays and I are gradually educating you subliminally, your opinions have been improving.

I don't think many of my postings are often rants, but often like yours, they are intended to provoke. (Personal view.)

Sometimes, the responses to "provocation" are with thought and on other occasions are the typical knee jerk, or herd like reactions prevalent on many threads.

Also, the questions I have asked, are an attempt to clarify my own thoughts and positions on certain matters, as much as to change other posters positions.

As far as the ME is concerned, I attempted to highlight a situation where there was the ongoing abuse of power and use "unfair" powerful, propaganda machine in association with what I think, corrupt Jewish American State Lobbying.

The response by many, when this thread was initiated, could be seen as orchestrated.

I think Israel is stoking up future problems for itself and is not being pragmatic.

=============

Noticed at the weekend that Israel has agreed to go ahead with more settlements:

BBC updates:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12725487


13 March 2011 Last updated at 10:11

Israel approves new Jewish settler homes in West Bank
Israel has approved the construction of hundreds of homes for Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank.

=================================
---------
I suppose it was a good time for the Israeli government to bury the news.

Fred - libya and the palestinians have nothing whatsoever to do with one another .... in honesty, much as i have always found (and so posted) israel's treatment of gaza and the palestinians despicable, it really is little more than a fly's buzzing relative to the current m/e upheaval .... try answering the question i asked

As far as the world economy is concerned the effects should be positive as Japan rebuilds. Some sectors and stocks will suffer, others gain.
Construction will be sharply up in the medium term; short term effects include uranium stocks down, solar stocks up, oil prices will dip.
Markets will not go into melt down, there will be plenty of short and long term opportunities and bounces for the more sophisticated trader and investor.

Cynic,

Stop shouting at me. It frightens me.
================

If you refer to question is contained in Post 4552, the answer is I dont know.

There are too many ifs.

However, at the moment I think that if a no flight zone is quickly enforced, then there is a chance that the rebels may be able to hold some of the major ports and obtain arms and supplies to continue the insurgence.

Also, if that happens, then the rebels may get support from Tunisia and Egypt and of course surreptitiously from the West.

This may induce and early coup and replacement of the Gaddafi hierarchy.

Interesting to see the Rebels commander was a minister justice minister and the military leader is also military trained.

If Gaddafi does get control of the ports then it will be a slow protracted murderous pathway to his removal.

The support will come from Tunisia and Egypt.

The population of Lybya is about 6.5million and that is a small population to patrol a county of its area size.

My bet would be that Gaddafi will be disposed of within 3-6 months.
One problem is that many of the governing cliques of the Arab States in the surrounds, are fearful of any instability and subsequently being removed. They may think that it is reasonable for themselves, to hinder any movements which may lead to democracies.


===============================
Libya is a force of a gnats bite, but Israel is not much bigger, with a population of 7.5million with not much more than half the population having allegiance to its government. As an economical entity it is really of little import.

Again, the surrounding states do not have much love for the State of Israel and would do little to enabling its continuity.

The saving grace for Israel at the moment is that those states do not wish for instability.
=========================

Approximate Populations of Libya 6,5million
Israel 7.5million
Tunisa 10.5Million
Egypt 82million
Wales 3million
But Wales often fights successfully above its weight.


The ramifications of actions in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Libya extend to Israel.

The Israeli government acknowledge this.

DYOH.

Fred - stop trying to insert israel/gaza into the libyan equation; a total red herring ..... to get back on track ....

on balance, i suspect a no-fly zone will be approved and given that it has clear AL support, there will at least be an attempt to enforce it ..... G will hope to have (re)secured most of his objectives by the time that comes into being.

i certainly have fears with the bahraini situation, as i'm not sure where that will lead ..... bahrain in itself is something of nothing, except that it abutts saudi and includes a us naval base and influence over persian gulf traffic ..... so what, one might say, but saudi is not nearly as solid as most like to imagine, and that is the real concern

CYNIC,

Bit like a tsunami.

Not sure where it began and less certain where it will get to or when it will end.

But I didn't realise that Israel had moved out of the area.

(Edited, so that I can at least understand myself.)

You wish

well now you know :-) ..... furthermore, neither gaza nor israel have oil!

Gaza has offshore oil and gas reserves

The British Gas Group drilled two wells in 2000: Gaza Marine-1 and Gaza Marine-2. Reserves are estimated by British Gas to be of the order of 1.4 trillion cubic feet, valued at approximately 4 billion dollars. These are the figures made public by British Gas. The size of Palestine's gas reserves could be much larger. Tel Aviv blocked Gaza earning money from the wells. They said that only goods could be paid to Gaza.

how exciting even if no oil!
indeed, if these wells were drilled in 2000 and nothing much done about it, clearly just exploratory rather than anything proven - bad bullshit makes plenty of methane however

Plenty has been done about it. Gaza was going to have a gas deal with Egypt, but Israel blocked it. As it is offshore Israel prevents Gaza from exploiting it and Israel maintains control over the deposits.

"Who Owns the Gas Fields

The issue of sovereignty over Gaza's gas fields is crucial. From a legal standpoint, the gas reserves belong to Palestine.

The death of Yasser Arafat, the election of the Hamas government and the ruin of the Palestinian Authority have enabled Israel to establish de facto control over Gaza's offshore gas reserves.

British Gas (BG Group) has been dealing with the Tel Aviv government. In turn, the Hamas government has been bypassed in regards to exploration and development rights over the gas fields."