Sahara - technical trader Gary Savage, publisher of the Smart Money Tracker
General gist of his thoughts
We [now] have confirmation that June 28th was indeed an intermediate cycle low and a yearly cycle low.
- I think this yearly cycle low is not going to get violated for the rest of the bull market
- and I think we are starting either another C wave advance or this is the bubble phase.
- Each one of these C waves is getting bigger and bigger.
- The last one I think did 170% from the D wave bottom to the C wave top.
- This one should be bigger
- and especially considering that in my opinion we had some manipulation in the market.
So an artificial move down should make the move up that much more aggressive and go that much further.
- So if the last one did 170% and the miners did a little over 300%, this one should be bigger.
- We’re probably going to see 200% or more in gold
- and 400% or 500% in the miners if this is a C wave.
- If this is a bubble phase, then we’re probably going to see 300% to 400% from the bottom [in gold] at $1179 to the bubble top.
http://bullmarketthinking.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/7232013savage.mp3
I think the proof of the pudding he suggested
“When assets enter a bubble phase, what tends to happen is the market quickly recognizes that it was positioned wrongly and you get a lot of shorts that have to cover and so it just never pulls back. It just goes right back up to the old highs very quickly, races through them, and then the sentiment reverses to where everybody starts to chase and then the bubble phase unfolds.
So it depends on whether this is the beginning of the bubble phase or whether this is just going to be another C wave advance.
If gold goes back and tests those $1900 all-time highs very quickly in the next three, four months, by November,
- let’s say, if that happens,
- then.. I would say the odds are probably pretty good ...we are entering the bubble phase.”