Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Credit Suisse warns of grave deflationary shock for Scotland



By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Politics and society
Last updated: September 9th, 2014

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100028065/credit-suisse-warns-of-grave-deflationary-shock-for-scotland/


Here is the Credit Suisse note this morning on the shock in store for Scotland if it chooses to break up our Union, and if Britain declines to come to the rescue. It expects: recession; deposit flight; 20pc devaluation; 5/10pc cut in wages.

Just so you know, it is written by Andrew Garthwaite, Marina Pronina, Robert Griffiths, Nicolas Wylenzek, Richard Kersley, and Ashlee Ramanathan, a mix of nationalities.


In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP) and should the Bank of England move to guarantee Scottish deposits, we expect it to extract a high fiscal and regulatory price (probably insisting on a primary budget surplus). The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn. In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment.



Scotland can have a huge banking industry, or it can have independence linked to sterling, but it cannot do both unless the Bank of England props up its lenders as a lender of last resort. Perhaps the Bank will do that as a courtesy gesture, but why should it?

Currency options: We place a 40% probability on a peg to the pound (which we think would ultimately not hold) and a 10% probability on a freely floating currency. We place a 50% probability on a currency arrangement which would avoid devaluation against sterling: of this, we place a 25% probability on a formal currency union and a 25% probability on a Hong Kong-style currency board. We see a <1% chance of a Euro peg.

Significant deposit flight would require Scottish banks to offer much higher deposit rates, which would in turn increase borrowing costs for Scottish entities and individuals. This, in our view, would increase the risk of a severe economic downturn in Scotland post-independence.

With North Sea oil output in decline (with the Office for Budget Responsibility calculating that output has declined by an average of 7.8% per year since 1999 and recent estimates by Sir Ian Wood putting North Sea oil reserves at 15-16.5bn barrels versus estimates by the Scottish government of 24bn barrels), it is clear that the non-oil manufacturing base in Scotland would need to be clearly competitive in order to attract in capital.


Speaks for itself. I would only say that a Hong Kong style currency board is almost impossible because you need huge reserves to defend the peg – at least 50pc of GDP. Scotland would start with almost no reserves, since UK has almost none. (Not necessary if you have your own sovereign currency, and it floats.)

Credit Suisse does not address that point but it does say:

It cannot be lender of last resort. Moreover, if there was deposit flight, as would seem likely, there would then have to be a contraction in base money, which would likely trigger a sharp recession. This works in Hong Kong because wages can and do decline when there is capital flight, but it seems hard to envisage Scotland with such labour market flexibility.

I happen to think that Scotland could prosper eventually as an independent “Nordic” economy, just like Denmark. But there are a great number of analysts from across the world who fear that it will be an almighty fiasco for the next decade unless Britain props it up.

In my view, Britain will be forced to prop it up. Excuse me for feeling a slight irritation about this, as a Welshman.

I bet Wee-Eck hasn't bothered to tell the punters about that article.

And, as much fun as his reads are, AEP isn't the perennial eurosceptic/bear/hawk/grim-reaper?

Maybe, just maybe, one of these days (if we all wait long enough), he'll be right. On the balance of probabilities, it's gotta happen at some stage.

45668 - so are milliband and clegg .... like the red-tops you should learn to report accurately for a change

Scotland?

Completely unimportant!

Professor Hawking predicts the end of universe after 'God particle' collapses
By Mirror
Updated Tuesday, September 9th 2014 at 12:10 GMT +3

England: The famous physicist says that the 'God particle' might collapse under extreme high pressure and wipe out the entire universe.

If Professor Stephen Hawking is right, everyone on earth could be living on borrowed time.

The internationally renowned physicist says in his new book that the Higgs Boson - also known as the 'God particle' for the way it explains how everything has shape and size - may be unstable when subjected to very high pressures.

He claims that this would lead to the collapse of the universe at the speed of light and that we wouldn't know it was about to happen.

In the preface to his book, Starmus, Prof Hawking writes: "The Higgs potential has the worrisome feature that it might become metastable at energies above 100bn gigaelectronvolts (GeV).

"This could mean that the universe could undergo catastrophic vacuum decay, with a bubble of the true vacuum expanding at the speed of light. This could happen at any time and we wouldn't see it coming."

The particle physics theory was demonstrated two years ago during experiments at CERN's Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in Switzerland after being predicted by British scientist Peter Higgs in the 1960s.

The LHC uses electromagnetic fields to blast particles at high speed making them change direction and causing them to crash into each other.

The resulting tiny subatomic fragments are the 'God particle' which are what is said to give mass to everything, although the exact process is not fully understood.










































But in case anyone's worried that Prof Hawking's ideas that a total universal destruction is imminent, he does have a jokey addition to his pronouncement: "A particle accelerator that reaches 100bn GeV would be larger than Earth, and is unlikely to be funded in the present economic climate."

In the preface to his book, Starmus, Prof Hawking writes: "The Higgs potential has the worrisome feature that it might become metastable at energies above 100bn gigaelectronvolts (GeV).

Camoron on the run from the Scots tomorrow chasing him all the way back to Westminster.

Be careful what you wish for GF, if the no campaign fails and Scotland gain Independence goodnight the Labour Party. Every cloud! :0)

If the yes campaign wins, who's going to bail them out?

No one. They may well go into recession and end up like Greece. Then we may need guards on the border.

Chris C, not a bad as you make out. labour would be short by just 3 seats if yes vote wins. A few independants and the Libs and we are away.

Camoron will have to resign thats for sure.

If it weren't for stupid up there own arse English people / attitudes like yours Haystack the No vote would be walking it

And all this rubbish that is now being offered to the Scots by all and everyone .... is it just me or is this why a lot of the No voters are voting No cos they don't want it in the first place ?

gf . isis are just a bunch of lunatics and we a long with others go in and show them their end of their sad lives feed them to the dogs .scum are scum .
THE USA HAS NO LEADER JUST A ARSEWIPE THE MAN IS A BLOODY DIMWIT
AND MADE THE USA A THIRD WORLD COUNTRY

LET THE SCOTS GO CLOSE THE BORDER AND GIVE THEM NO RIGHTS TO WORK IN THE UK DO NOT LET THEM USE THE POUND AND NEED A PASS PORT TO GET IN TO THE UK .
SAY GOODBYE AND FCUK OFF BACK HOME

Why don't we tell the Scots to shove off! In a personal view (which the Mail disagrees with) SIMON HEFFER says what we fear many English people think

By Simon Heffer

Published: 00:55, 10 September 2014 | Updated: 07:20, 10 September 2014


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2750071/Why-don-t-tell-Scots-shove-In-personal-view-Mail-disagrees-SIMON-HEFFER-says-fear-English-people-think.html

That's way over the top even by the Mails standards. Salmond's a twat a view not only shared by the English. But I do agree grovelling by our so called politicians is pitiful, playing right into the Seperatists hand. Embarrassing is an understatement and disrespectful in my opinion to the majority of the Scottish people.

Scotland will be a very sad place if they go it alone within 10 years
I do spend a lot of money in Scotland love the views . but will think twice about going to a place were they do not want English so would not go will stick to wales and the south to spend my cash I send the family to the tattoo ever year at a cost of over 17k will say good bye to that

Tank - Complete over reaction, the Welsh Nationlists will be next to jump on the bandwagon created by this pathetic attempt of grovelling and over the top promises by our woeful out of touch politicians and who can blame them.

Actually, I do greatly agree with Tanker.

If Scotland do split off from the UK, then 'Bollocks to them!'. I do feel greatly emotional about this and also extremely sad about it and my feelings do not have a great deal to do with what actually might be the 'reality' of the situation.

If this thing happens, then I will regard Scottish devolution as an unfriendly act. If they aren't 'for us' then they must be 'against us'. Thus I will not be at all 'pro the Scots' in any way, shape or form if they do split away and my wife and I will go on a personal crusade to try to boycott absolutely everything Scottish.

This will mean such things as say drinking, say Brandy instead of Whisky, no banking with any Scottish named banks, no salmon, no Crawfords 'tartan' shortbread, no visits to Scotland, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc.

It will mean my (our) development of a cold and an 'anti Scottish attitude' towards all Scots, and I would suppose this might end up being whether or not they live in the UK or Scotland.

In fact, I do admit to feeling some animosity towards the Scots for even considering it.

This may be a mystic over-reaction but I do admit to feeling 'emotional about it'. I am also somewhat afraid of this thing happening' and of the negative effects it will have my investments and also the GBP.

If Scottish devolution happens I believe it will be an utter disaster for the UK.