goldfinger
- 14 Feb 2005 12:10
Joined the holders in CBF this morning. Looks like a recovery going on here and I here whispers well speculation of new contract wins. The company seems to be moving away from DNA and focusing on protein and virus production and they seem to be far more focussed.
The company have restructured their sales and marketing team and appear to be more aggresive in their actions.
Fixed and variable costs have also been attacked and the company is working from a lower cost base. The companys order book is higher than it as been for a while and I beleive quarterly profit will be achieved.
Chart also looks strong and shows a break up.
Pointers To Recovery.
From last results 11th Jan.
Sales improvement in the second half of the financial year due to switch
from DNA to proteins and virus.
Restructuring of sales and marketing to address US market.
Restructuring of the Oxford and Keele facilities.
Broadening of customer base - 12 new customers in 2004.
The 4.8m Oxford Facility completed on time and to budget.
Contracted business for financial year 2005 stands at 2.7m.
Financial:
Revenue: H2 2004 up 30% to 2.0m compared with H1 2004 1.5m
FY 2004 down 42% to 3.5m (FY 2003: 6.0m)
Gross margin: H2 2004 49% compared with H1 2004 39%
FY 2004 45% (FY 2003: 57%)
Loss before tax: H2 2004 reduced by 17% to 1.03m compared with H1 2004 1.24m
FY 2004 2.27m (FY 2003: 0.82m profit)
Cash at bank: Sept 2004 3.2m compared with Mar 2004 3.8m (FY 2003: 7.3m)
Loss per share: FY 2004 12.3p (FY 2003: 6.9p earnings)
Director Speak
Commenting on the results, Peter Fothergill, Executive Chairman said:
'Our second half improvement and the current position of our order book are
significant achievements. Management moved rapidly during the year to focus
sales and marketing in the US and from DNA to virus and protein production. This
was no mean feat and we are cautiously optimistic for the future.'
Company Outlook Statement.
Management is actively seeking to broaden the customerbase particularly in the US biotechnology clusters and is examining ways toexpand the service offering including later stage manufacture and there by developing longer-term relationships which can reduce the impact of the high levels of clinical trials failure. These initiatives are already beginning to gain traction with contracted business currently 2.7 million for the financial year 2005 ('2005'), with 52% from North America. If this improvement continues Cobra will recover value for its shareholders.
Fundies.
Presently loss making but looks like the corner has been turned. Awaiting next trading update/results.
Beta.
Fairly High.
Conclusion
Highly Speculative, but the rewards if recovery does take place could be very rewarding.
cheers GF.
goldfinger
- 21 Feb 2005 12:06
- 46 of 140
From Hemscott..................
Cobra Biomanufacturing - Friday 18th February 2005
The loss-making biopharmaceuticals minnow saw its shares rise after revealing its DNA-making technology is being evaluated as part of an EU-funded HIV/AIDS vaccine clinical trial. The news is a boost for the group as its DNA business collapsed last year on falling demand. Kam Patel suggested the stock merited a speculative punt earlier this month, and now sticks by that call.
Cobra said the Phase I trial is being conducted by a consortium (Eurovacc) of organisations including Cobra and will be carried out initially in the UK and Switzerland. The AIDS vaccine involves an initial injection with DNA, designed with the participation of Cobra and using its proprietary DNA manufacturing technology.
The news is a boost for Cobra as it had a miserable time last year with the collapse of the DNA business. In its 2004 statement in January it reported that its sales had halved due to its pharma clients experiencing a large number of failures of trials using DNA based treatments, reducing demand for Cobra's DNA-making expertise.
In response, the company decided to heavily expand its capability for making proteins and viruses, where demand remains buoyant and deal newsflow has been very good.
More good news for its DNA business could come from, surprisingly enough, the Chancellor Gordon Brown. Earlier this year he put forward proposals that call for a doubling of public funding for research in HIV vaccines to 80m per annum.
Brown also wants to entice further industry and private equity investment in the area. He is expected to use Britains presidency of the G8 this year to implement a global effort in HIV vaccine research.
Brown also wants major industrialised countries to commit themselves to buying the first 300m vaccine courses at a cost of US$20 a course, so setting up a US$6bn
guarantee of a future market. Sav Neophytou, analyst at housebroker Seymour Pierce, says this could ensure further business investment, which currently stands at around 60m per year primarily by small biotechnology companies and university laboratories.
He points out though that although an HIV vaccine is the holy grail of infectious diseases, it also represents a very high risk strategy without significant proof of concepts and is viewed with a lot of scepticism by much of the scientific community.
Cobra Biomanufacturing is involved in the manufacture of seven experimental HIV vaccines. Increased funding for Cobras clients via initiatives being championed by Brown may allow for a recovery of its DNA business.
If Browns proposals are implemented, Neophytou reckons Cobras DNA revenues would grow by 30%, although he stresses the product candidates that Cobra has an interest in are very early stage and very high risk. He is currently not factoring them in to his forecasts.
As we pointed out earlier this month, Cobra has managed to drastically reduce its reliance on DNA by expanding its protein and virus making capacity. Deal newsflow for the latter two is expected to be good going forward, especially from the key US market.
Today's news then is welcomed as it provides some support for a part of Cobra's business that has been through the mill. But it is extremely early days as regards the possibility of the EU-backed trials coming up with a successful vaccine. If Brown manages to deliver with his proposals, it could make things even more interesting for Cobra's DNA business.
The full-year consensus forecast is for a pretax loss of 450,000, and a loss in earnings per share of 2.02p. Cobra is projected to move back into the black next year with full year 2006 pretax profits seen coming in at 170,000, with earnings per share of 0.94p.
In the wake of the statement Cobra's shareprice rose 3p to 50p. Still a speculative buy.
goldfinger
- 21 Feb 2005 12:14
- 47 of 140
An earlier article aswell from Hemscott, note the broker comments........
Cobra Biomanufacturing -Friday 11th January 2005
The biopharmaceuticals group's shares jumped after it announced it has won a 3.6m protein manufacturing contract. Cobra had an awful 2004 after the collapse of its DNA business but a new focus on protein and virus product manufacturing looks like it is beginning to pay off. It is well worth a speculative flutter, says Kam Patel.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The new deal will cover the manufacture of eight proteins for a US-based biotechnology company. Cobra says the contract, along with others concluded over the past month, takes the value of its contracted business for the 2005 financial year to 4.9m from the 2.7m it reported in its full statement of January 2005. The total value of its forward order books stands at 5.9m.
The fresh momentum in its business follows the collapse of its DNA business last year. In its full year 2004 statement in January it reported that its sales had halved due to a large number of failures of trials using DNA based treatments, reducing demand for Cobra's DNA making expertise.
In response, the company decided to heavily expanded its capability for making proteins and viruses, where demand remains buoyant.
Protein products now account for 46% of its current forward order book while virus products make up 37%. Orders from the key North American market constitute 72% of the current forward order book, it said today.
[b]Seymour Pierce analyst Sav Neophytou says today's announcement could provide upside to his full year 2005 revenue forecast of 7.3m. He is confident there will be further good deal newsflow over the year, especially from the US, and says the company may even manage to breakeven this year, ahead of his expectations of a move into the black in 2006.[/b]
cheers GF.
goldfinger
- 22 Feb 2005 00:20
- 48 of 140
Should maintain momentum and move further north.
cheers GF.
mickeyskint
- 22 Feb 2005 11:06
- 49 of 140
Out of all my holdings this is the one I feel least confident about. Give me some assurance someone.
MS
goldfinger
- 22 Feb 2005 11:47
- 50 of 140
Watch out for news in shares Mag and IC this week. Remember all the good stuff came out after these had gone to print last week.
cheers GF.
Ps, thought you said you werent going into this one? too risky I think you said.
hampi_man
- 22 Feb 2005 11:49
- 51 of 140
GF, what makes you sure there will be news in the mags this week regarding CBF
cheers
mickeyskint
- 22 Feb 2005 11:55
- 52 of 140
It was your Midas touch that persuaded me GF. You other tips have come good so I thought this one would be the same. Please keep posting on this one, just to keep me from having a nervious breakdown.
LOL
MS
goldfinger
- 22 Feb 2005 12:16
- 53 of 140
HM, because they have followed it closely before even when it was under the cosh. You usually have financial journalists with a portfolio of shares who tend to update on those in their portfolio just like ourselves out on the boards.
Fingers crossed it doesnt always run to form but it quite often does, hope that makes sense. Another tip, on tip sheets look out for the news at the back that as come late and they can only give it a few lines. Sometimes month after it is the main tip.
Mickey, futures in US are well down, get your bottle of Whisky out for this afternoon. Better still Meths.
cheers GF.
goldfinger
- 22 Feb 2005 23:13
- 54 of 140
Not hit that hard today, less than a penny.
cheers GF.
goldfinger
- 23 Feb 2005 10:45
- 55 of 140
Dont sell off, the markets getting a shock taste of reality. There will be a bounce in the US.
cheers GF.
goldfinger
- 23 Feb 2005 11:26
- 56 of 140
Just out from Killik brokers....................
Sentiment in the near term appears to have turned with active profit taking in the second liners after a terrific run to the start of the year. How far things will come back is the obvious key question but so far, it does not appear as if too much stock is coming out and this feels more like a healthy correction rather than something more significant.
cheers GF.
goldfinger
- 23 Feb 2005 15:37
- 57 of 140
Holding its ground pretty well.
cheers GF.
goldfinger
- 25 Feb 2005 01:02
- 58 of 140
Continuing talk on other boards of a new deal. Seems to be recovering very well.
cheers GF.
snaylor
- 25 Feb 2005 09:02
- 59 of 140
Good result with another new deal GF, seems like CBF are really motoring after the change in direction. Any ideas on how much the new deal is worth to CBF? If it sees them into profit at next results this could be a real turning point.
hotrott
- 25 Feb 2005 09:19
- 60 of 140
Snaylor,
It seems the terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed.
See link below.
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=5221085&action=article
goldfinger
- 25 Feb 2005 09:21
- 61 of 140
Yup excelent new deal. and stock already up 13%, news delivered right on cue.
Cobra Bio-Manufacturing PLC
25 February 2005
For Immediate Release 25 February 2005
Cobra signs long term deal with Neovacs SA to supply Phase I clinical trial
material for a novel protein active immunization therapy-TNFa Kinoid
Keele, UK, 25 February 2005 - Cobra Biomanufacturing Plc (AIM:CBF.L), the
international manufacturer of biopharmaceuticals, announces today that it has
signed a long term manufacturing agreement with Neovacs SA to supply clinical
trial material for a protein biopharmaceutical, TNFa Kinoid. This novel active
immunization therapy against the human cytokine, Tumour Necrosis Factor a
(TNFa), will be tested for its efficacy in auto-immune and inflammatory
diseases. The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed.
Overproduction of protein cytokines, such as TNFa, is the cause of many
inflammatory diseases. Neovacs Kinoid technology involves inactivating cytokines
and conjugating them to a carrier. The resulting cytokine protein complex
(Kinoid) serves as an active immunization therapy that induces a natural and
potent antibody response by the patient's immune system. This enables the
harmful cytokines to be neutralised and the disease treated. In addition to TNFa
Kinoid, Neovacs is developing other active immunization therapies against
numerous human cytokines to treat a range of diseases.
Alain Huriez, CEO of Neovacs, commented:
'We were impressed with Cobra's expertise and track record in protein process
development. We feel confident that Cobra will deliver us quality Kinoids on
schedule for our Phase I clinical trials.'
David Thatcher, CEO of Cobra, said:
'We are pleased to be selected by Neovacs to produce this novel cytokine protein
complex for European clinical trails. This long term agreement recognises
Cobra's expertise in producing emerging protein therapies and vaccines.'
-Ends-
cheers GF.
The Oxman
- 25 Feb 2005 14:56
- 62 of 140
anyone got any recent broker feedback re revised forecasts, eps and price targets - am inclined to believe further significant recovery is on the cards now, back to 100p hopefully. co seems to be developing strong momentum. Mind you I did buy sometime ago and am still nursing losses but management are performing and as I said I think there is still some way to go for now. enjoy the ride and dyor.
goldfinger
- 25 Feb 2005 16:07
- 63 of 140
Im waiting for Evolution to produce a note, as soon as its out Ill post it. I agree with you Recovery is now well under way.
cheers GF.
upndown
- 26 Feb 2005 00:41
- 64 of 140
looking good now.Has broken clear of the upper trend line,although not correct has a GOLDEN CROSS that didnt break down.
NORTH FOR CHRISTMAS
Troys
- 26 Feb 2005 10:33
- 65 of 140
Is MLB Plc connected to this company still?