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Profiting from DEBT (DEBT)     

EWRobson - 23 Apr 2006 22:13

Surprising that no existing thread on Debtmatters (DEBT). Big run up this year and Shares are expecting more to come. Been watching for a while but recent news of accelrating expansion has encouraged me on board.

DEBT is a relative newcomer to the market: revenue up 230% to 2.44 at interims to Sept 2005 and pbt up 530% to 818K. In comparison DFD turnover to October 2005 (interims) more than doubled to 6.4m with pbt of 1.86m. DEBT achieved 200 IVA's for the first time in September: this became 344 in January and 534 in March. DFD has approaching 20% of the market which appears to be expanding at about the rate achieved by DFD as their share is constant. From this I deduce that DEBT has a way to go at its exceptional current growth rate. OK a pe around 90 appears high but two years could bring it to 30 and then 10.

From the charts there is terrific momentum in the climb. It may be that we have had two legs of a three-legged climb. Best to be on board for the journey!

Eric

Matt7777 - 07 Nov 2006 12:19 - 46 of 68

looks like some form of regulation will start to be applied to the debt co's - should benefit the larger + more "ethical" players - DFD and DEBT - while the banks start to face up to the problems caused by their loose lending policies over the last few years.

I guess the industry will concentrate down to a couple of leading players, who work with (& are recommended by) the UK banking industry; the growth in this subsector should follow that from the US, where penetration rates are over 5x those in the UK currently for this kind of product. (IVA)

Sentiment for the stocks should start to improve , the likely rate rise this week will help, while I can almost see the headlines already about Christmas debt levels...



hlyeo98 - 22 Nov 2006 19:31 - 47 of 68

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DEBT&S

hlyeo98 - 22 Nov 2006 23:11 - 48 of 68

Excellent results...


RNS Number:3933M
Debtmatters Group PLC
21 November 2006


DEBTMATTERS GROUP PLC
("the Company")

Interim results for The Six Months Ended 30th September 2006


Financial Highlights

Strong performance across entire business and accordingly the Board
anticipate that results for the full year to March 2007 will now be ahead of
current market expectations

Revenues up 465% to 13.79million (H1 2006: 2.44million)

EBITDA up 531% to 4.83million (H1 2006: 765,000)

"Approved" IVA cases average 503 per month during the period underpinned
by strong conversion rates

Infrastructure in place to support further growth with additional
Insolvency Practitioners recruited

Acquisition of Loanmakers now fully integrated and performing well with
cross referral opportunities emerging

Regulation ready: ISO9001 accreditation awarded with systems and
procedures in place ensuring Company ready for increased regulation

IVA market continues to grow rapidly. Directors are confident the
Company is well positioned to continue its growth


Ges Ratcliffe, Chief Executive of Debtmatters, commented,

"I am delighted to announce another strong set of results as Debtmatters
consolidates its position as one of the UK's leading debt solutions providers.
Growth is accelerating across our entire business and in order to support this
we have made the necessary investments in both infrastructure and management
systems.

"As a result, we have exceptionally strong foundations in place which will
underpin our IVA and secured loan businesses as they continue to grow their
market share. With 636 approved IVAs secured in September, a near threefold
increase over September 2005, and with ISO9001 accreditation in place we are
primed for further growth."


Enquiries:

Ges Ratcliffe CEO, Debtmatters Group plc 01204 678 200
Rick Thompson / Freddy Crossley Charles Stanley Securities 020 7149 2000
Shane Dolan Biddicks 07947 118 383


Debtmatters Group plc
Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2006

Chairman's Statement

I am delighted to report Debtmatters' interim financial results for the six
months ended 30 September 2006.

During the period under review, the Company has achieved strong, profitable
growth and continues to consolidate its position as one of the UK's leading
providers of consumer IVAs. Financial performance is ahead of the Board's and
market expectations with turnover up 465% to 13.8 million and profit before tax
up 494% to 4.4 million compared with 2.44 million and 0.74 million
respectively for the same period in 2005 (as adjusted for the provisions of FRS
20).

In September 2005 we processed 230 IVAs; by contrast, September 2006 was a
record month with 636 IVAs processed by us, a 275% increase on the previous
year. This sustained growth has been underpinned by the appointment of two
additional Insolvency Practitioners. In addition, we have taken on a further 60
staff in the period since March 2006 and agreed terms on a further 20,000 square
feet of office space. These actions have significantly enhanced our IVA
processing capability as well as secured our reputation for offering industry
leading service levels.

Key achievements during the period include the successful acquisition of
Loanmakers, which has been integrated with our existing business and will
relocate to our Middlebrook premises shortly. Loanmakers' results since
acquisition are in line with expectations.

The Board is confident of further progress in the current year and beyond and
strongly believes that Debtmatters is well placed to deliver steady and
sustained growth in a growing market and anticipate that results for the full
year to March 2007 will now be ahead of current market expectations. I look
forward to updating shareholders with further progress in due course.


Noel Guilford BA FCA MSI
Non Executive Chairman



Debtmatters Group plc
Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2006

Chief Executive's Statement

Business

I am delighted to report an exceptionally strong set of results as the Company
continues its growth momentum and I feel we are well placed for further growth.
Our market share has grown since joining AIM in June 2005 and we hope to
consolidate our position as a leading provider of debt solutions to the UK
market.

The Market

The IVA market continues to grow rapidly and shows no sign of abating. I
anticipate this trend will continue into 2007 and beyond with many commentators
predicting that the market size will more than double by 2009.

I believe that the company has the infrastructure in place to capitalise on this
forecast growth. September 2006 was a record month for Debtmatters in terms of
case volumes with 636 cases approved in the month. In the last six months,
growth has been such that we have again had to accelerate our plans to increase
our office space. The Group now occupies 35,000 square feet, accommodating the
new staff we are recruiting and enabling us to relocate Loanmakers into the
Group's headquarters.

I am particularly pleased to report that Loanmakers has made an excellent start
to its life under the Group's ownership. Volumes of business are in line with
expectations and we are pleased by the encouraging early signs of the levels of
referrals between Loanmakers and Debtmatters. This is an area we intend to build
upon once Loanmakers has relocated in the next few weeks.

Industry Issues

In recent months, we have witnessed a great deal of press coverage concerning
the "debt industry" in general and the IVA sector in particular. Debtmatters
welcomes calls for greater regulation and we believe our continuing investment
in systems and procedures will ensure that when this arrives we will more than
meet the standard expected. We have already invested significant time and effort
in developing a system to meet the rigorous demands of ISO9001 accreditation. In
recent months a number of competing interest groups have been established hoping
to formulate a framework for greater levels of regulation. I believe Debtmatters
is in a strong position to meet the requirements set by whichever of these
groups eventually has the mandate to set standards.

Strategy

With one of the lowest costs of case acquisition and one of the highest
conversion rates in the sector, our strategy for continued growth continues to
be centred around organic growth primarily through direct marketing and
advertising activities. Our low cost of client acquisition and high conversion
rates primarily derive from two key factors:

A tightly managed overhead structure and low cost base (demonstrated by
industry leading net profit margins), coupled with very low staff turnover,
enable Debtmatters to undertake cases at very competitive levels of
supervisory fees.

As we disclosed at the time of flotation, Debtmatters has an
infrastructure of representatives who are able to undertake home visits
anywhere in the UK where an IVA is being considered. These representatives,
who are not incentivised with commissions, demonstrably enhance conversion
rates. The involvement of these representatives also helps to accelerate
turnaround times on cases, providing clients with excellent service and
thereby reducing the number of clients who do not follow the process through
to its conclusion.

Outlook

We will continue to strengthen and develop our established IVA business and
recently acquired loan brokerage and seek to capitalise on the potential
synergies available from a multi product strategy.

We have established a solid infrastructure with robust 'regulation ready'
management systems to address the challenges of greater regulation which will
inevitably arise. These systems will provide a platform for the continued growth
of the business as the Group benefits from a rapidly expanding market and the
economies of scale achieved to date.

The Directors are confident of continued progress and look forward to updating
shareholders in due course.


Ges Ratcliffe
Chief Executive

hlyeo98 - 30 Nov 2006 20:45 - 49 of 68

Good article in the Shares mag on DEBT and DFD this week.

hlyeo98 - 01 Dec 2006 22:49 - 50 of 68

Debtmatter reports strong progress
MoneyAM
Debtmatters Group said pretax profit for the first half beat market forecasts on strong performance across the business and it now expects full-year results to be ahead of expectations.

The company, which provides solutions to consumers in debt via Individual Voluntary Arrangements (IVAs), said pretax profit rose 494% to 4.4m as revenues rose 465% to 13.8m.

CEO, Ges Ratcliffe, said Debtmatters is confident of continued progress as it is well positioned to capitalise on the rapid growth in the IVA market.

hlyeo98 - 04 Dec 2006 11:24 - 51 of 68

IVAs are on a rapid rise...BUY into DEBT at 312p

hlyeo98 - 26 Jan 2007 12:26 - 52 of 68

Huge drop today to 239p...why is that?????

bonfield - 26 Jan 2007 13:35 - 53 of 68

I think its called a 'tree shake'. DFD also hit, it happened a few months back just before results time. We'll see if there's anything behind it.

hlyeo98 - 26 Jan 2007 15:01 - 54 of 68

This is not a 'tree shake' at all. It involves all companies dealing with IVA's - DEBT, DFD, DETS, MDCG etc...maybe regulatory bodies are looking into IVA's.

stockdog - 26 Jan 2007 16:54 - 55 of 68

ACG have announced a profit warning - bad marketing and resistance from creditors (i.e. the Banks), alongside the various press comments that the Banks favour their pet charities to do this work at lower cost to themselves rather than the commercial outfits, on top of general chat about better regulation which, although I do not believe it would cause detriment to the two leaders (DFD and DEBT) is nonetheless playing on market fears.

So, it's more serious thatn last time, although I have no reason to believe DEBT's figures will be less than as announced at their interims.

Ges Ratcliffe, Chief Executive of Debtmatters, commented,

"I am delighted to announce another strong set of results as Debtmatters
consolidates its position as one of the UK's leading debt solutions providers.
Growth is accelerating across our entire business and in order to support this
we have made the necessary investments in both infrastructure and management
systems.

"As a result, we have exceptionally strong foundations in place which will
underpin our IVA and secured loan businesses as they continue to grow their
market share. With 636 approved IVAs secured in September, a near threefold
increase over September 2005, and with ISO9001 accreditation in place we are
primed for further growth."

I look forward with interest to the March pre-close update.

Try to sleep easy over the weekend!

hlyeo98 - 26 Jan 2007 17:03 - 56 of 68

Sleeping is not easy nowadays, sd.

stockdog - 27 Jan 2007 08:01 - 57 of 68

See also DFD's profit warning. Will DEBT follow suit?

NB. Even with a 20% downgrade on DFD and DEBT EPS for 2007, they still pass all fundamental criteria for a growth stock. For example, say DEBT delivers EPS of 19.72p instead of the 24.65p currently forecast and say the SP was still 300p, this gives a PE of only 15.2. But we'll still have had growth in EPS of 135%, giving a PEG of 0.11 - not exactly an ex-growth rating.

Looking forward to 2008, where EPS is currently forecast at 34.05p. Again, downgrade this by 20% to 27.24p - growth of 38%. At 300p this gives a PE of 11 and a PEF of 0.29 - still pretty good.

However, the market as ever will probably not be forgiving in the short term. It will require this current spat between IVA's and banks to be resolved. Whereas the banks may have good reason to try to stop some of the freeer and easier operators from selling their services by claiming to be able to knock 65% off anyones debt and still sting the bank for 7,000 a pop, I doubt if the monopolies commission or the charity commissioners will be impressed by their insistence all IVA's are arranged via their chosen charitable operator who seem to charge 5,000 a go.

If the banks subsidise the charity by giving it the 2,000 difference, they can claim 30% tax relief on their gift = 857. But, hey, the banks get charged 2,000 less. So they make a profit on the deal. Now a fundamental tenet of charitable giving , at least when I worked in subsidised theatre admittedly a while ago, is that the donor should not receive a material benefit in return for its gift. That would preclude their receiving any tax relief.

However, short term I doubt the market will be so forgiving, and it will be a struggle to climb back up to 300p by March update. I do expect a fairly hefty bounce sooner than that - which I do not anticipate will be dead cat in nature - which will be a quick exit point for many among us, so prolonging the recovery to what I see as par value of around 300p. I guess dreams of 450p by time of results is now a rather diminished prospect.

Ah well, good luck to all holders and try to keep your collective nerve.

hangon - 29 Jan 2007 11:37 - 58 of 68

I hope you're right for holder, but I never liked this stock as it trades on a premise of gloom and doom ( but then I don't hold funeral companies either).
The way the sp is going it looks like early investors are takig their profits - so I guess should you and hope for a recovery, by buying on a return to good news.

It's possible the heady days are over - and all the "easy" punters satisfied, therefore it becomes ever-harder to maintain the income - add to that a negative press and this business looks like ambulance-chasers and the like....IMHO

I suspect the fundamentals of this business-model are changed forever, but I am so often wrong.......do you feel lucky?

hlyeo98 - 30 Jan 2007 12:17 - 59 of 68

Below is taken from EK's diary...beware! DEBT may go lower...he is shorting DEBT to 83p.


Debtmatters (DEBT) has quite a lot of debt and I wonder if it starts to have problems whether it will be able to take its own advice? The bottom line is that even though the shares have collapsed they remain a stonking short. Let us take Debtmatters as a case in point. At the half year it generated a post tax profit of 3 million pounds so let us value it at 5 times an annualised figure of 6 million pounds minus debt of 9.5 million pounds equals 20.5 million pounds or 83p a share. The shares still trade at 167.5p so I'd be mad to close my short. I also remain short of Debt Free Direct (DFD)

stockdog - 30 Jan 2007 14:02 - 60 of 68

But why accept EK's PE of 5? Surely 15 would be quite reasonable, given even a reduced rate of growth hereafter. That makes it worth 80.5m or 325p per share.

Let EK plough his furrow. However often he wins or loses, one thing is for certain - he is not making these pronoucements to offer best advice to you and me.

matthewrobson - 30 Jan 2007 16:23 - 61 of 68

well said stockdog but lets watch to see if the directors come out and buy that will show us either way

stockdog - 30 Jan 2007 19:25 - 62 of 68

Interesting concept, matthewr

hlyeo98 - 07 Feb 2007 11:24 - 63 of 68

Looks like Evil Knieval is right again on DEBT. It is starting to slide, stockdog. Now 158p.

hlyeo98 - 08 Feb 2007 23:46 - 64 of 68

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DEBT&S

hlyeo98 - 10 Feb 2007 17:45 - 65 of 68

Daily Mail has an article today on DEBT - ''Don't bet your shirt on debt relief firms''
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