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Referendum : to be in Europe or not to be ?, that is the question ! (REF)     

required field - 03 Feb 2016 10:00

Thought I'd start a new thread as this is going to be a major talking point this year...have not made up my mind yet...(unlike bucksfizz)....but thinking of voting for an exit as Europe is not doing Britain any good at all it seems....

jimmy b - 22 Jul 2016 10:29 - 4633 of 12628

Haystack that article is a load of tosh ,read the one above ,May knows she will lose the next election if she doesn't restrict the free movement of people .

Haystack - 22 Jul 2016 10:33 - 4634 of 12628

I think you are wrong about that. It depends on how it is presented and how much free movement. The public are very gullible. It may be the price for trade agreements.

jimmy b - 22 Jul 2016 10:47 - 4635 of 12628

Here you go again ... The public are very gullible ... You think everyone is stupid and your Tory party can just run right over them ,well tell that to the 17.5 million people who voted leave .
I shall vote Tory IF the free movement of people is stopped otherwise i would vote UKIP as would many many others ,you had better believe it.

iturama - 22 Jul 2016 10:51 - 4636 of 12628

4629

Not really C, but it was either that or a Moniker. But both my wife and girlfriend said they wouldn't be seen dead with someone that likes a Moniker.. :)

VICTIM - 22 Jul 2016 10:57 - 4637 of 12628

WOW a wife and a girlfriend eh Iturama .

iturama - 22 Jul 2016 10:57 - 4638 of 12628

You forget that Hays passed the 11 plus Jimmy. Even went to Grammar School. Ooh..
Everyone else is stupid and gullible.

iturama - 22 Jul 2016 10:58 - 4639 of 12628

Just bragging Vicky. In my imagination only. It is possible to have both, but not for long.

Fred1new - 22 Jul 2016 11:16 - 4640 of 12628

Happy days are here again.

-=-=-=
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864273


Britain's decision to leave the EU has led to a "dramatic deterioration" in economic activity, not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis.
Data from Markit's Purchasing Manager's Index, or PMI, shows a fall to 47.7 in July, the lowest level since April in 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Both manufacturing and service sectors saw a decline in output and orders.
However, exports picked up, driven by the weakening of the pound.
Business Live: Pound tumbles
Chancellor may 'reset' economic policy
The report surveyed more than 650 services companies, from sectors including transport, business services, computing and restaurants.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said the downturn has been "most commonly attributed in one way or another to 'Brexit'."
"Given the record slump in service sector business expectations, the suggestion is that there is further pain to come in the short-term at least."
Mr Williamson added that the economy could contract by 0.4% in the third quarter of this year, but that would depend on whether the current slump continued.
'Heading for recession'
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the figures provided the "first major evidence that the UK is entering a sharp downturn".

VICTIM - 22 Jul 2016 11:24 - 4641 of 12628

Well you could have voted to remain so don't know why you persist , Freda .

MaxK - 22 Jul 2016 11:31 - 4642 of 12628

Fred only looks one way, it's his Nelson mode.

Haystack - 22 Jul 2016 11:33 - 4643 of 12628

This is what happens if you read too many posts from Fred.

jimmy b - 22 Jul 2016 11:37 - 4644 of 12628

Happy days are here again...............

Fred HATES Britain and all of the British ,i wonder why he wants to see the UK decline .

Haystack - 22 Jul 2016 11:51 - 4645 of 12628

Britain just got its first concrete sign that Brexit is going to destroy the economy

Britain just got its first concrete sign that Brexit is going to crush the nation's economy, after a grim set of PMI data released by Markit on Friday morning showed a "dramatic deterioration" in the economy since the UK voted to leave the EU.

Markit's flash PMI readings for the UK's economy, showed that composite output fell to its lowest level since March 2009, during the tail end of the global financial crisis.

Here is the scoreboard:

Services PMI — 47.4, down from 52.3 in June and at an 87-month low. The figure was well below the 49.2 forecast.
Manufacturing PMI — 49.1, a 44-month low, and well below the expected 50 reading.
Composite PMI — 47.7, a drop from 52.4 in June, and at an 87-month low.
The purchasing managers index (PMI) figures from Markit are given as a number between 0 and 100.

Anything above 50 signals growth, while anything below means a contraction in activity — so the higher the better.

The figures are a flash reading, meaning that they could easily be revised upwards or downwards when final readings come in at the end of the month. However, given that the readings are some of the first hard economic data to be released since Britain voted to leave the EU, and show a massive downturn, they're pretty important.

Speaking about the data, Markit's chief economist Chris Williamson said (emphasis ours):

"July saw a dramatic deterioration in the economy, with business activity slumping at the fastest rate since the height of the global financial crisis in early-2009.

in order book cancellations, a lack of new orders or the postponement or halting of projects, was most commonly attributed in one way or another to ‘Brexit.’"

And here is Markit's terrifying chart, showing just how massive the contraction in post-Brexit Britain has been so far:



Unsurprisingly, the data was not greeted happily by economists, with Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics saying in an emailed note (emphasis ours):

"The collapse in the composite PMI to its lowest level since April 2009 provides the first major evidence that the U.K. is entering a sharp downturn. If the PMI remains at July’s level in August and September, it will be consistent on past form with a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter decline in GDP in Q3. The confidence shock from the Leave vote might wear off over the coming months, but the decline in the new orders index to just 46.2, from 53.0 in June, points to even faster falls in output ahead."

Earlier on Friday, Markit data showed that the eurozone economy is currently showing "surprising resilience" to the Brexit vote, with PMIs falling a little in June, but beating the expectations of economists polled before the release, who had predicted a sharper decline.

jimmy b - 22 Jul 2016 12:18 - 4646 of 12628

Funny ,not doing any further damage to the markets though ?

jimmy b - 22 Jul 2016 13:22 - 4648 of 12628

Your fault for voting out Haystack .

MaxK - 22 Jul 2016 14:10 - 4649 of 12628

He didn't vote out.

That Markit stuff shows only one side (surprise surprise) It might as well have been written by a remainer.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/976bd7e8-3952-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#axzz4F8tzzSf2

Fred1new - 22 Jul 2016 14:45 - 4650 of 12628

Dumbo,

"Fred HATES Britain and all of the British ,i wonder why he wants to see the UK decline .

No. In the majority of its practices and its culture it has a lot going for it.

Climate could be a little better.

Some problems with its antiquated political system.

-===-=-===


But tell me, what it is like for you seeing the rest of the world as your enemy?

Going around terrified about what others are doing, anxiously looking over your shoulders, in case the may be getting more than you think they should have or blaming others for your own position.

But I suppose blaming, or picking on other groups, or individuals, or organisations etc. may relieve you of your anxiety and divert you from your own inadequacies.

But good luck to you.


Haystack - 22 Jul 2016 14:47 - 4651 of 12628

I did vote out, but still concerned at economic effect.

Haystack - 22 Jul 2016 15:03 - 4652 of 12628

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/insight-does-brexit-mean-brexit-could-uk-change-120137576--sector.html

When does Brexit mean Brexit - Could the UK change its mind?
Reuters
By Guy Faulconbridge 1 hour 46 minutes ago
By Guy Faulconbridge

LONDON (Reuters) - Since entering Downing Street as Britain's new prime minister last week, Theresa May has quickly dispelled hopes that the UK might change its mind about leaving the European Union.

"Brexit means Brexit," she said in her inaugural speech.

She added later that Britain will take the time it needs to invoke the now notorious Article 50 of Europe’s de facto constitution governing a member’s divorce from the EU. Both May and her new minister for Brexit have said Article 50 would not be triggered before the end of the year.

Yet once May gets the United Kingdom onto the Brexit runway, can she turn back the plane?

That is the question many UK and continental European legal minds are now pondering. One London firm of human rights lawyers has formally asked the government's legal department to clarify whether a country can invoke Article 50 and begin the process of EU divorce — but then revoke it down the line.

May’s government is also looking into the issue, as ministers study their position regarding the timing and aftermath of invoking Article 50, according to a person close to the government.

Article 50 of the European Union’s 2009 Lisbon Treaty, which was drafted by a former British ambassador to the EU, has never been used, providing no legal precedent for how it works.

Yet how May navigates the 256-word provision is ultimately a political decision, government officials say, that will define her premiership and the future of Britain's ties with the rest of Europe.

If Article 50 can be revoked after it is invoked, then May's calculations of when and how to start Britain's EU divorce could be radically different from the widely assumed "irrevocable trigger" of Article 50, according to lawyers and government sources.

Charles Streeten, a British barrister who has examined the legal arguments around the invocation and possible revocation of Article 50, says a country can unilaterally pull back at any point prior to the expiry of the two-year period during which, according to the Lisbon Treaty, the European Union and the exiting state need to work out the terms of their divorce.

"The benefits of this should not be underestimated. If I am right, Britain would have a much stronger hand to play in the EU negotiations," Streeten told Reuters. Streeten said the government should seek formal advice from the European Union’s Court of Justice on the matter.

Bindmans, a top London firm of human rights lawyers, has written to the government’s legal department seeking clarification on the revocability issue as well. "It would appear to be in the UK’s interests for that issue to be resolved before the Article 50 process is commenced," Bindmans wrote in its letter. The department declined comment.

In Brussels, another view prevails.

EU lawyers say Britain could only revoke an Article 50 notification if all the other 27 members of the EU agreed. Otherwise, Britain could theoretically pull out of its divorce a day before the two-year negotiating period is up and start again, tangling the world’s biggest trading block in years of divorce talks.

UN-DIVORCE?

The June 23rd referendum in which 17.4 million voters cast their ballots in favour of leaving the European Union versus 16.1 million who wanted to remain has opened up the biggest period of British financial, political and constitutional uncertainty in modern times.

The vote has been cast by some lawyers as a "Peasants' Revolt" that is now facing a “counter revolution” because the vote went against the wishes of most of Britain's political, financial and business elites.

Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, Britain’s foremost Brexit politician, has said there is a concerted attempt to slow - or even prevent - a British exit, just like the Peasants' Revolt of 1381 was ultimately crushed.

Since the referendum, several legal challenges have been mounted aimed at giving MPs a say over both Brexit and Article 50. At least seven lawsuits have been started arguing that only parliament has the authority to decide whether Britain should trigger Article 50.

The first of such lawsuits will be heard in October.

"I believe that people have been fooled," Gina Miller, a co-founder of London fund manager SCM Private, 51, who is the main claimant in the challenge.

"They have not realised that the referendum was not legally binding and secondly there is no Brexit plan.”

Dominic Chambers is a senior lawyer who has filed another lawsuit aimed at forcing the government to allow parliament to decide whether Brexit goes ahead. That case form part of Miller's case.

Chambers, who is acting for hairdresser Deir Dos Santos, says he wants parliament involved precisely because he believes "Article 50 is a one-way street; once Article 50 has been triggered it is irreversible.”

Yet two of Britain's top law professors, Michael Dougan and Derrick Wyatt, said they believe Britain could revoke a divorce notification before the two-year negotiation period is up.

Still, Dougan, professor of European law at the University of Liverpool, said any revocation would in practise depend on making a political agreement with the other members states.

Keith Ewing, a law professor at King’s College London, believes there is no provision for revoking Article 50. Yet he too believes there might be the possibility of a political “fudge” with the rest of the European Union.

"But this is all moot: it is not foreseeable that the British government will change its mind," he said.

BREXIT LIGHT?

Any attempt at a fudge would enrage supporters of Brexit, including many lawmakers in May’s government, which has a majority of 16 in the 650-seat House of Commons.

Brendan O’Neill helped organise a protest outside Downing Street on May’s first day in office.

O’Neill, who described himself as a Marxist libertarian, says any attempt to block Brexit would thrust Britain into an even deeper political crisis as the elites would be seen to be frustrating the clearly expressed wishes of voters.

He said he hopes Brexit will happen but that he has his worries.

“What I think might happen is that we get Brexit light.”
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