Nigel Farage is just the beginning of Ed Miliband's problems
By Dan Hodges Politics Last updated: September 25th, 2014
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100287754/nigel-farage-is-just-the-beginning-of-ed-milibands-problems/

Tomorrow belongs to me?
This morning Ed Miliband has finally given the green light for air strikes – on the UK Independence party.
As the people’s army gathers for its annual conference in Doncaster – a bold incursion into Ed Miliband’s own South Yorkshire heartland – Labour has launched a pre-emptive attack on the tweed insurgents. “Ukip claim to be on the side of working people, but the truth is they’re more Tory than the Tories”, shadow minister Michael Dugher claimed in a typically conciliatory press release. “Ukip is a party of Tory people and Tory money. Now they want to go even further than the Tories by giving another tax cut to millionaires.”
Nigel Farage has got Labour rattled. Though to be honest, at the moment everything’s got Labour rattled. The party was supposed to have emerged from its annual conference poised to sweep to power. Instead it finds itself in the midst of an existential crisis. “What kind of party are we?” asks the headline on the front of the normally ultra-loyalist Labour List website. A party having a nervous breakdown, is the answer.
A year ago Labour’s leaders believed that the party's vaunted 35 per cent strategy would see it safely across the finishing line in 2015. Now they fear Labour’s flanks are crumbling.
The resilience of the Tory vote – as evidenced in the European and local elections – alarmed Labour strategists. But they felt they had electoral insurance in the form of Ukip, (who they saw primarily as a problem for David Cameron to deal with), and Lib Dem switchers. They don’t feel that any longer.
First there is Scotland. It’s difficult to overstate the psychological – never mind political – impact the referendum campaign has had on Ed Miliband and his party. When he arrived in Scotland a week before polling day he genuinely thought he would be welcomed as some form of saviour. The man who would send the despised Cameron clan packing, and enable the Scottish people to safely remain part of the union. The truth cut his legs from under him.
“We’re finished in Scotland,”, one senior Labour adviser told me this week, “The SNP are going to hammer us in the general election.” The Scottish people may not have voted for independence. But they’ve declared a form of unofficial UDI, with serious implications for Labour. If Nicola Sturgeon can maintain Alex Salmond’s momentum, then from Labour’s perspective the West Lothian question will become moot.
Now there is Ukip. Everywhere they look, Labour MPs are starting to see Nigel Farage’s ghost. “We’re in real danger from them in the south” one Labour campaigner told me last month. “You don’t think they’re a threat to us in the north?” a Labour MP told me a fortnight later, “You’re living in a dreamland. All we get on the doorstep is Ukip.”
This week a sinister apparition has even been spotted in the Labour heartland seat of Heywood, site of the by-election to elect the successor to the highly respected Jim Dobbin. “Labour faces Ukip threat in Heywood” reported the Financial Times, in a headline that was echoed by several Labour insiders.
One MP described this dual threat from the SNP and Ukip to me as a “pincer movement”. But the problem for Labour is that the threat is actually coming from the same direction – Labour’s working class base.
It’s not 1997 new Labour switchers that are flirting with the purple peril, but hardcore Labour traditionalists. And it’s a flirtation that is currently terrifying Ed Miliband and his advisers.
That’s because it wasn’t supposed to be happening like this. Miliband, not Nigel Farage, was meant to be the insurgent. It was the Labour leader, not Alex Salmond, who was supposed to be seizing the mantle of change. The threat from Ukip and the SNP doesn’t just represent a shift in the political mood, but a repudiation of the Labour leader’s entire political strategy.
It also presents Ed Miliband with that thing he hates most, a series of difficult decisions. To insulate his core English base from Ukip would require him to shift-right. Tough lines on immigration, welfare and law and order would have to be deployed. But those are not the sort of messages that would necessarily appeal to voters north of the border. And they’re certainly not messages that would appeal to the Lib Dem refugees who have been attracted to Labour’s ranks by Miliband’s new political metropolitan liberalism.
Personally, I think the Ukip threat is being overstated. Labour voters will face the same choice at the ballot box as Tory voters – Prime Minister Miliband or Prime Minister Cameron. Prime Minister Farage is not an option.
The collapse of Labour in Scotland is more serious. Not least because there are no easy solutions. There are only so many times Gordon Brown can be sent out to act as Ed Miliband’s rather unconvincing body-double.
But in any case, Ukip and the SNP represent the symptoms, not the disease. The fact Labour is scrambling to react to the risks posed by these two minor parties simply underlines their failure to effectively take their fight to the real enemy, the Conservative party. Labour’s 35 per cent strategy was a flawed one from the moment it was conceived, the political equivalent of attempting to parachute onto a tiny island situated in the middle of a shark infested sea. There was no room for error. And as we saw in Manchester, the errors are now coming thick and fast.
Ed Miliband has ordered air strikes on Nigel Farage’s insurgents. But air strikes alone are never enough.