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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Beeblebrox - 18 Feb 2004 18:38 - 466 of 11056

rhetoric has had an effect tonight,
got down to 189.47, which is an uncomfortable level,
still anything above 188.70 is a higher low,
and uptrend still ok.
off to bridge now, c u for us open - golf in morning if weather ok.

Ruth - 18 Feb 2004 18:40 - 467 of 11056

well was very interesting today doing forex for first time, but seems sharescope charts only run till 5-30 from what i can see,but boy does it move, thought the dow was crazy , but its even worse than the dow, dont know if ide like to scalp though, think i would burn out in under a week, might look for slighly longer term positions, any suggestions?

Beeblebrox - 18 Feb 2004 18:43 - 468 of 11056

you following me, or me you ?
longer term the whole world thinks we're going to 2.00 to the ,
so many would take this dip ( 1.8946 currently ) as a good buying opportunity,
but wtfdik as usual........

Ruth - 18 Feb 2004 18:47 - 469 of 11056

Edit,chart sorted now, back live :-) needed to alter time scales

hilary - 19 Feb 2004 06:56 - 470 of 11056

TOKYO, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The dollar was a touch softer on Thursday as scepticism lingered about whether a broad-based rebound a day earlier, which included a two-percent reversal rally from record lows versus the euro, was sustainable.

Against the yen, the greenback erased some losses and inched up towards the day's high on suspected intervention by Japan.

"After the dollar's rally yesterday, (the Japanese authorities) seem be letting exporters sell dollars and at the same time preventing the dollar/yen rate from going lower," said Jun Takeuchi, general manager at Gaitame.com.

By 0245 GMT, the dollar had edged up near the day's high around 106.80 yen from a low of 106.30 yen. The greenback rose as high as 107.15 yen on Wednesday.

Against the euro, the dollar stood at $1.2716/19 , down a quarter cent from late New York levels but up nearly two cents from record lows around $1.2930 hit on Wednesday.

The pound drifted about two cents below the previous day's 11-year highs around $1.9140 , while the Australian dollar was about a cent below seven-year highs around $0.80 .

While suspicion was growing that the dollar's precipitous two-year downtrend may have run its course, an absence of any clear change in the market's environment kept traders wary about trying to pick a bottom.

"The dollar rose across the board, but to see a real self-sustainable recovery, the U.S. current account deficit problem needs to peak out and this is likely to take until later in the year," said Takashi Yamanaka, senior economist at UFJ Bank.

Dealers said that Wednesday's rally was not driven by any fundamental news but a result of buy-backs by some major fund managers that snowballed into a wider short-covering spree.

TURNAROUND?

Although most traders thought the dollar's downtrend remained intact, others warned that a turnaround could not be ruled out.

"There is no consensus in the market yet, but there is a feeling that something may be changing," said Toru Umemoto, currency strategist at Morgan Stanley.
He noted that Wednesday's rally was all the more impressive as it -- ironically -- came only hours after surprisingly strong Japanese growth data, which showed the economy was booming at a seven percent annual pace in October-December, and after the dollar plunged to new lows against the euro, sterling and the Australian dollar.

"It could just be that people who had bet on an accelerated drop in the dollar on the Japanese GDP figures were disappointed by a lack of such an outcome. They didn't get a big down move after the Group of Seven meeting earlier this month either, so they might be a bit frustrated," Umemoto said.

"But we might be seeing what may be change in the trend."

Japan's Nikkei stock average (.N225: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed almost one percent at one point, buoyed by an easing of the yen against the dollar and the strong market debut for Shinsei Bank (8303.T: Quote, Profile, Research) . It ended morning trade up 0.78 percent at 10,760.40.

In the foreign exchange market, speculation was growing about whether U.S. investment fund Ripplewood Holdings would repatriate funds generated from Shinsei Bank's $2.35 bln initial public offering (IPO), as such a move could give a boost to the dollar.

Dealers recalled Oracle Corp Japan's (4716.T: Quote, Profile, Research) IPO in April 2000, which resulted in a huge amount of repatriation flows in just several days and sparked a dollar-buying spree.

For now, the market was awaiting the U.S. weekly jobless claims report due later in the day. The European Central Bank's governing council was also due to meet but no interest rate announcement is scheduled.

hilary - 19 Feb 2004 13:02 - 471 of 11056

Cable putting on ahead of the US jobs data. The market doesn't look as though it's expecting much from the data ....... the data might need to be really sparkling to push it back.

Beeblebrox - 19 Feb 2004 13:08 - 472 of 11056

Morning all, back from golf, and missed a bit of fun on ftse,
are figs 1.30 hils ?
that pullback last night was a big surprise - caught me off guard

hilary - 19 Feb 2004 13:14 - 473 of 11056

Indeed they are, Beebs. 352k expected.

hilary - 19 Feb 2004 13:33 - 474 of 11056

344k better than expected

Beeblebrox - 19 Feb 2004 15:23 - 475 of 11056

long cable 188.82

Limpsfield - 19 Feb 2004 15:55 - 476 of 11056

I'm long too at 18878 looking for 1.9200. If that low at 1.8784 goes I am out.

Beeblebrox - 19 Feb 2004 16:13 - 477 of 11056

nice entry limpy,
got a small baseline 188.80 that both you and i hit,
next below i make 188.40ish, but like you hope not to visit it.
my upside taget - more than yours, but i'm a greedy bugger,
good luck.

back to this resistance 189.20ish - if it goes we should get some
more upside

Beeblebrox - 19 Feb 2004 17:01 - 478 of 11056

philly fed helped clear that 189.20 level
bless them

Tellon - 19 Feb 2004 17:15 - 479 of 11056

Not for long thou... :(

Beeblebrox - 19 Feb 2004 17:18 - 480 of 11056

tellon ;~)
getting better now they've worked out it's not good for the $ !

Tellon - 19 Feb 2004 17:33 - 481 of 11056

IG Index keep closeing the Market (So you can not Buy/Sell) Im a bit new to the online world. Is this the same for CMC?

Beeblebrox - 19 Feb 2004 17:36 - 482 of 11056

nope - cmc you can trade thru the night,
i'm on cfd's, price now 189 63-67, i.e 4 pip spread

Tellon - 19 Feb 2004 17:52 - 483 of 11056

Cool Cheers

dclinton - 19 Feb 2004 18:05 - 484 of 11056

Hi Ruth. Welcome to forex :-) Know what you mean about scalping - it's very stressful.

My approach at the moment is to try and establish a position over a couple of days, adding to it as the price rises, trying to capture the longer trend.

As Hil has pointed out, you need to be willing to set quite wide stops and take a drawdown to get into and stay in a position, but it can be quite rewarding.

Haven't been able to trade the past couple of days as I'm offline in Telford doing day-job stuff but looks like I've managed to miss a particularly difficult whipsaw period so perhaps it's for the best.

Limpsfield - 19 Feb 2004 21:02 - 485 of 11056

Moved my stop to breakeven so we'll see what tomorrow brings
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