The CEO states Tullow sp is much too low and I bought in on the comments---todays results are excellent and I feel this one is being overlooked on here. check it out bargain hunters-I'd welcome some expert feedback!

SocGen summary:
For the second time in two weeks Tullow’s share price is down by more than 5% intraday, triggered by the announcement of disappointing exploration results (Zaedyus, Okure). The fall in the share price (and associated volumes) significantly exceeds the value we were carrying for each of these wells in our risked NAV; this indicates to us that long term investors may have begun to question Tullow’s long standing premium valuation to its peers (e.g., $69/b EV/2P reserves vs. $32/b average) which we think captures an impressive exploration track record over the past six years.
Clearly, the downside from here is that investors continue to mark down the stock’s 50-60% premium to Core value (771p/s est.) as Tullow pursues its highly volatile exploration-led strategy. We caution that Tullow has not become a poorer explorer overnight, in our view, and we expect further clarity on its fully funded 2013 drilling programme with its January trading statement – noting that clarity on the portfolio upside could well dispel investors’ misgivings. The next catalyst for investor sentiment is likely to be results from the high risk high impact PaiPai well in Northern Kenya by year end (+32p/sh unrisked).
Valuation. Our 1,450p TP is in line with our risked NAV at $100/b (771p core + 375p contingent + 304p exploration). Risks to TP. Drilling success/failure should drive investor sentiment near term, together with success in ramping up of production on the Jubilee field in Ghana. Industry specific risks include spills and commodity prices.

A buy in shares mag . I have bought into Tullow last week, With the shares in the doldrums following a worse than expected result from the appraisal drilling off the coast of French Guiana. The shares trade at some way below an estimated sum-of-the-parts (sotP) valuation from broker investec of £13.99 a share. Its not just a matter of luck that Tullow has a record of around 70% of its appraisal and exploration wells have found oil or gas. They have a large experienced team of geologists and drilling specialists.According to Chief operating officer Paul McDade, Tullow aims to identify at least 400 potential targets each year from which it comes up with its list of 40 wells.
In 2013 the company is set to go after multiple prospects in Kenya, French Guiana and Mauritania. Broker Jefferies estimates success with the groups Kenyan drilling alone could be worth 500p a share.

If the potential for Kenya drilling is so good for Tullow you would be better off
buying Afren which is a cheaper share ( PE terms ), as they are also in Kenya.

Plus they have exciting potential in Northern Madagascar which may be drilled
in 2013 and also proven reserves in Kurdistan almost ready to produce a bonanza.

My personal target for Afren at 130p would be 165p very soon,
but who knows in these dull markets.
Danger is that oil prices could be weak in 2013 because of adequate supplies
coming on stream.

Afren seem to be better value that Tullow ?

My shares for 2013
Sterling Energy ( SEY ) low risk as cash rich, and waiting for action to start
Man Group lowish risk waiting for improved world economics
Afren a low risk oil share - could increase by 50 % ??

Moving outside the seasonal retail business, Tullow Oil will give us a trading statement and operational update on Friday. The share price slid in December, a month in which the firm announced the acquisition of Norwegian explorer Spring Energy for an amount that could be as high as $672 million (based on a core price of $372 million plus conditional bonus payments of up to $300 million), and told us it is offloading some of its North Sea assets.

This appears to be a move towards more speculative -- and therefore higher-risk -- prospects, which may well have scared away some of the company's investors. But at 1,279p today, the Tullow share price has tripled since late 2008, so someone clearly knows what they're doing

TLW has very strong management and outstanding R&D (i guess that's the right term)

Lets hope 2013 is a better year for them.

Im out

i've been nursing a loss for some time, but perhaps foolishly, i shall stay put

There was a broker downgrade yesterday.

Investec cuts Tullow Oil to sell from hold, target price 1,000p from 1,399p.
(I don't currently hold)

i'm afraid there have been several of late, but the company is intrinsically more than just solid ..... if i feel a desperate urge to invest elsewhere, and am short of funds, then i can and would sell these, but currently i have no need

One for the future.

Trading Statement and Operational Update

Strengthened balance sheet; increased Jubilee production, Uganda farm-down proceeds, debt re-financing and reserve additions

Significant ongoing portfolio management; focus on high value oil and early monetisation

Exploration & Appraisal campaigns to target 1 billion boe with over 40 wells planned for 2013

hasn't done sp any good, but the brokers/bears rather have their teeth into TLW at the moment - hey ho

Canaccord note today:
"At Twiga, Tullow is guiding to test rates of 500bbls/d per interval from the ongoing test program, owing to "the limits of test equipment, reservoir energy and reservoir quality". The capacity of the pump is 800bbls/d, and if true this might suggest a combination of reservoir energy and quality is insufficient to fully utilise the pump capacity. 2012 production of 79.2mboe/d is 3% below consensus expectations, with a N. Sea shutdown in December impacting production. 2013 guidance of 86-92mboe/d is light vs. the expectation of 95mboe/d released at the H1 results, at the mid-point the '13 production guidance is 6% below the expectation from July '12.
Drilling at Paipai (6p/sh risked, 70p/sh unrisked high case fig) is ongoing, with results now expected in February (the well is in the top seal of the reservoir). Reserves are expected to increase by 380mmboe as the TEN project moves into the development phase. This represents substantial growth in % terms but is from a very low base of 283mmboe.
We believe the guidance on test rates in Kenya could potentially disappoint the market. Whilst we concede it is early days in Kenya we attribute ~$3.2bn of risked value for Kenya in our NAV. Expectations are very high for this region.
The '13 exploration drilling campaign will target 1bnboe of net mean unrisked resource potential; our risked NAV (which gets us to a SELL rating and 1100p target) includes 1.2bnbbls of net risked exploration resource potential. We believe we are adequately reflecting the undeniable potential of Tullow's exploration portfolio. Tullow trades at a 69% premium to our Central NAV (producing assets and discoveries under appraisal) compared to Premier, which trades at a 29% discount to our Central NAV (PMO : LSE : 369p | BUY).
Overall we don't see anything to make us more positive on Tullow. We still believe the premium attributed to exploration is too large. Although the production disappointments do not significantly impact value they do reflect the difficulties of turning exploration success into cashflow. We think the guidance on test rates in Kenya might raise some concerns over a region for which expectations are high."

wake up cynic! ...... don't fall in love with a stock

Will keep an eye on these .

Bearing in mind that TLW have a 50% stake in the PaiPai exploration, onshore Kenya, this might be worth a punt if it drops further?

TLW are def out of favour at the moment ...... hali might say, "always told you they were overpriced!"