markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
required field
- 25 Sep 2010 15:53
- 4666 of 6492
Thanks for that marky....your posts are superb...cheers...the only thing is that : this is not the north sea and that the only comparison that can be made is that : yes it is at the start but this is in the south atlantic.....and yes it is in british waters.....to me the next well is a gamble...and I'm not sure if I will be in...not at the current sp for Desire...
There could be a lot of oil and gas out there, but it's as if it is already partly priced in...that's the biggest problem ;
If the stock goes to 10 in a couple of years you could look back and say...it was cheap then.... but nothing is sure....
chav
- 25 Sep 2010 22:45
- 4667 of 6492
rf...."that price includes a discovery the size of sealion.."
What is the Mcap of RKH with Sealion oil discovery?
What is the present Mcap of DES, pre Rachel Oil discovery?
chav
- 26 Sep 2010 21:01
- 4669 of 6492
Plenty of upside, should Rachel come good though Marky, at the present sp....if they had Oil already then we would be paying 3.50 odd for them.
Fantastic weather in the FI's still at the moment so the OG should be over Rachel now and gripped for entry.
avsec
- 27 Sep 2010 08:23
- 4671 of 6492
Chav
"OG should be over Rachel now and gripped for entry"
let's keep the smutty comments off this thread...
required field
- 27 Sep 2010 09:16
- 4672 of 6492
So,...anybody shorting for the possible bubble burst ?....
HARRYCAT
- 27 Sep 2010 09:27
- 4673 of 6492
Surely that possibility is over a month away?
HARRYCAT
- 27 Sep 2010 09:36
- 4675 of 6492
DES duster = burst bubble. (RKH value still intact).
(None of the pictures at the top are loading marky).
required field
- 27 Sep 2010 10:04
- 4677 of 6492
I think you must press f11 or f12...Marky....but not sure.....
required field
- 27 Sep 2010 10:11
- 4679 of 6492
Cheers...
HARRYCAT
- 27 Sep 2010 10:17
- 4681 of 6492
All I get is a red X marky! Presumably that marks the spot of the next gusher??? ;o)
avsec
- 27 Sep 2010 10:42
- 4683 of 6492
Just about to do the same Marky but the sun is breaking through here in the SW. DES relatively steady as RKH slips.
chav
- 27 Sep 2010 11:27
- 4684 of 6492
Time DES had a RNS out.
markymar
- 27 Sep 2010 13:06
- 4685 of 6492
Agood post from Synchrouk on iii
Source rock = same as Sealion. The oil has been expelled from above, below and to the side of Rachel. The oil has not had to migrate far. The oil was generated all around the Rachel sand body. The maturity of the source rock has been proved in the Sealion well. No immature oil was found at Sealion, which was a very high pre-drill risk. Mature oil at reservoir depth, means this risk has been removed.
Reservoir = same as Sealion. The sand has been generated in a river, to the east. The sand has been deposited into a Cretaceous lake, on the eastern side of the lake itself. The eastern side of the lake had the deepper water and the water became deeper, quicker, compared to the western side. The organice rich claystones surrounded the Rachel fan. A risk with the reservoir is that the sand grain size distribution is different to Sealion and that this will have a detrimental effect, in so far as the porosity will be different. All the fans drilled in the Sealion well, showed good porosity, so I am confident that this will be the case in Rachel, for the reasons mentioned above, same sand source, same depositional slope gradient.
Seal = same as Sealion. The organic rich Barremian clays were deposited above and below and to the side of the sand body. This meant that the locally prodcued oil could get into the sands, but not escape.
Post Depositional effects = same as Sealion? I have no reason to assume that anything could have happened at Rachel, that would not have happened at Sealion. However, this cannot be ruled out. The main risk to the North Falklands Basin is tuff. A volcanically produced, ash deposit, which can reduce permeability, through chemical alteration, over time. It reduces the ability for a fluid to travel through a rock and may have been present at the Liz location, we will see. Not a great risk, as Sealion did not have this and Sealion is of the same same latitude.
As mentioned previously, I give Rachel a 85% chance of Success.
I'll add some expected STOIIP at some point. These are the current ones from the OUTDATED CPR. I expect the true updated, Rachel predrill figures to be much higher now.
STOIIP
P90 MMbo 163
P50 MMbo 839
P10 MMbo 1892
Mean MMbo 962
Compare these with the pre drill Sealion figures.
STOIIP
P90 MMbo 234
P50 MMbo 568
P10 MMbo 1348
Mean MMbo 710
I'll go into more detail of the geology at a later date also.