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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

STORMCALLER - 23 Nov 2005 00:26 - 4674 of 11056

Urgently in need of one positive cable trade this week to break my duck, with that in mind I have a cable short @ 224, and everything crossed that didn't fall off last time I waited so long for it to go positve!.........(never did...lol)

STORMCALLER - 23 Nov 2005 22:31 - 4675 of 11056

Always good to post when you have a point to make, and last night was no exception, and that's exactly what I made.....1 point, should have been 40 +, but sleep is sort of compulsory, and stop did the rest.
Most annoying is the fact that was my +ve trade for the week, 2 round trips today for net -35...oops

STORMCALLER - 30 Nov 2005 19:01 - 4682 of 11056

chocolat,
Thank you once again for all the posts....er hope I'm not trespassing on here...:-))

Well someone had to......just in from work, having watched cable climb inexorably most of the day, and unable to find an entry.
Obviously the only avenue left, short cable @ 311

navigair - 30 Nov 2005 21:50 - 4683 of 11056

In my humble opinion--cables going north- COT@100% nice trendbreak on 1hr chart and the return side of a "dish" bottom. Only a guess,would make a change for cable ,long from 250

STORMCALLER - 30 Nov 2005 22:27 - 4684 of 11056

Better close my short then.....+5, better than usual...lol!

hilary - 01 Dec 2005 07:33 - 4685 of 11056

Well I'm shorting it from 1.7304 at around 6pm last evening.

edit: Might find myself reversing that shortly ......... probably if it goes over 1.7320

Bobcolby - 01 Dec 2005 09:13 - 4686 of 11056

Nice call hilary.

navigair - 01 Dec 2005 09:25 - 4687 of 11056

Back long@.305

hilary - 01 Dec 2005 09:44 - 4688 of 11056

It's yawnsville ahead of the ECB. There's more to be had out of shorting the Yen atm.

I'm going to stick my neck out here and say that I don't think the ECB will do anything about rates today, despite the recent huffing and puffing of Trichet. They've been sat on the fence for so long now that they're probably stuck to it.

STORMCALLER - 01 Dec 2005 11:07 - 4689 of 11056

Small short cable @ 309......bored at work..:-)

Bear in mind the usual warning!

STORMCALLER - 01 Dec 2005 14:03 - 4690 of 11056

Taken out for 0, what a waste, if only work didn't keep getting in the way..:-)

MightyMicro - 01 Dec 2005 14:35 - 4691 of 11056

In case you missed it, the ECB raised rates to 2.25%

STORMCALLER - 01 Dec 2005 21:13 - 4692 of 11056

I can't get the hang of this long on cable, tipped out for -20.
Short cable @ 313, can't do any worse than the long..:-)

hilary - 02 Dec 2005 09:42 - 4693 of 11056

Yen suffers on rate view, focus on G7, U.S. jobs

Fri Dec 2, 2005 9:27 AM GMT

By Carolyn Cohn

LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The yen hovered near a 2-1/2-year low against the dollar and a record low versus the euro on Friday after a rise in euro zone interest rates highlighted the drag on the Japanese currency from near-zero rates in Japan.

The European Central Bank raised the key rate to 2.25 percent as expected on Thursday, triggering the euro's rise to an all-time high against the yen, though a tepid outlook for future tightening prompted selling versus the dollar.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet made clear the bank was in no rush to raise rates again, suggesting the dollar would keep its yield advantage in the near term.

Markets will be on alert for comments from Trichet and other central bankers and finance ministers as they assemble for a G7 meeting in London on Friday, while key U.S. employment data is also due.

"The dollar has been reacting to data in the last couple of days and the U.S. data should be strong today, but position-adjustment may take hold again next week," said Adam Myers, currency strategist at UBS.

"G7 may strengthen its comment to say greater flexibility is required, and there is a risk we see dollar/yen correct."

China attends the G7 meeting on Friday and Saturday and markets will watch for any hints on a further revaluation of the yuan. But G7 sources have told Reuters the language on currencies in the final communique, due on Saturday, will not change much from what was last said when they met in September.

Any sign that the G7 is putting pressure on China for more "flexibility" is likely to have a knock-on positive effect on the yen, often used as a proxy for China's currency.

The dollar rose as far as 120.71 yen, close to its highest levels since April 2003 set on Thursday, and was trading near the day's highs at 0854 GMT.

The euro hit a record high of 141.65 yen in overnight trade and was at 141.32 yen.

Against the dollar the euro was down 0.2 percent on the day at $1.17, under pressure following the ECB decision and news conference. The euro hit a two-year low around $1.1640 last month.

The Swedish crown hit 6-week highs against the euro following hawkish comments from the Swedish central bank after it left interest rates unchanged at historic lows of 1.50 percent.

With the ECB rate hike out of the way, dealers awaited monthly U.S. employment data due at 1330 GMT.

The median forecast in a Reuters poll is for the creation of 210,000 new jobs in November, after a rise of 56,000 in October.

Ahead of the G7 meeting, Trichet and fellow ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch are speaking in Luxembourg, and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown speak at a closed meeting in London.

Greenspan is also scheduled to deliver a pre-taped speech in Philadelphia at 1400 GMT.

"Greenspan is going to say something negative on external imbalances, as he did this time last year," said Myers.

Worries about the U.S. current account deficit took the dollar to record lows against the euro at the end of 2004.


JUICY U.S. YIELD

The dollar has capitalised on its yield advantage all year, climbing 18 percent against the yen and around 16 percent versus the euro. Meanwhile, the single currency has appreciated around 8 percent against the yen since early June.

The yen has suffered in particular because market participants do not see Japanese rates rising until at least the second half of next year, despite growing expectations the Bank of Japan will end its easy-money policy by mid-2006.

The U.S. fed funds rate is at 4 percent and widely expected to climb to 4.5 percent by early next year, while rates in Japan have been locked near zero for nearly five years.

BOJ Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said on Friday the chances of a change in policy would increase from April but the central bank could take its time before implementing a further policy shift after that, reiterating earlier remarks by BOJ officials.

"Until yesterday, the market was watching the euro, but the focus is turning to how far the yen's weakening trend will continue," said Hideaki Furumaya, forex manager at Trust and Custody Services Bank in Tokyo.

He added that near-term weakness in the Japanese currency could be compounded by an exodus from the yen into other currencies as Japanese individual investors park their winter bonuses in higher-yielding assets overseas.

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