Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Hilary -thanks for the post,quite amazing that there is no reference at all to Sterling?Are we out of favour?

FOREX-Yen plumbs lows vs dollar, euro after G7
Mon Dec 5, 2005 9:28 AM GMT

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The yen sank to a 32-month low against the dollar and an all-time low versus the euro on Monday after Japanese officials signalled on the sidelines of a G7 meeting that they were unfazed by the currency's slide.

The yen was not a topic at the weekend meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the world's leading economies, giving market players more reason to think that Group of Seven officials have no qualms about the currency's weakness.

Speculation had mounted that Japan may be getting nervous about the yen's widespread decline this year as investors have chased higher yields elsewhere, with the Bank of Japan seen keeping overnight rates near zero for an extended period.

But Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said after the G7 meeting that the yen's fall through 121 to the dollar reflected economic fundamentals, sticking to the ministry's script in signing off on currency moves. That comment was repeated on Monday by vice finance minister Koichi Hosokawa.

BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Saturday the weaker yen was not a problem and was consistent with the central bank's policy of fostering growth.

"I think the themes pretty much remain the same, yen weakness and dollar strength now and then, but it really is a yen move. We still like the dollar overall until you see signs that the (U.S.) data is starting to slip. We're looking at more yen weakness in the early part of this week," Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon Bank, said.

Big buying of foreign bonds by Japanese investors, combined with foreigners hedging their purchases of Tokyo shares to protect against a further yen drop, have helped drive the dollar up about 18 percent versus the yen this year.

By 0909 GMT, the dollar was trading around 121.11 yen, up 0.47 percent on the day. It climbed as high as 121.39 earlier, its loftiest since March 2003. The euro was last at 141.76 yen, fairly near the day's peak of 141.97 yen -- its highest since the single currency was launched in 1999.

The euro lost ground against the U.S. currency, slipping to $1.1708 from around $1.1720 in late New York trade on Friday, taking it closer to a two-year low of $1.1640.


BROAD YEN LOSS

Against other currencies, the yen also tumbled to new depths: a 13-year low against the Canadian dollar, eight-year lows versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars, and a seven-year low against the British pound.

A Bank of Japan index showed that through the first part of November, the yen hit a 20-year low on a trade-weighted and inflation-adjusted basis.

More pressure from the G7 put on Beijing to take more steps to loosen the yuan did little to help the yen, which speculators snapped up in the past as a proxy for when China would eventually let its currency appreciate.

China revalued the yuan on July 21 and now manages it against a currency basket, but since then the yuan has appreciated just 0.4 percent against the dollar. Beijing has said it would reform the exchange rate at its own pace.

"The bottom line is that, without a change in Japanese interest rates, it's difficult to buy the yen," said Tohru Sasaki, chief forex strategist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in Tokyo.

He added that the yen had the most to lose against the New Zealand and Australian dollars in the near term due to their particularly sweet rate advantages over the yen.

Australia's cash rate is 5.5 percent, while New Zealand's is widely expected to rise beyond the current 7 percent this week.


EURO ZONE GROWTH

The euro, meanwhile, was little changed by euro zone services growth data, which showed the sector grew at its fastest pace in 16 months in November.

The survey's headline Business Activity Index rose to 55.2 in November from October's 54.9, well above the 50 mark between growth and contraction and its highest level since July 2004. The index beat the consensus forecast of 54.8.

Mellon Bank's Gunner said euro/dollar was likely to move quietly this week with players reluctant to push the pair sharply down ahead of next week's Federal Open Markets Committee meeting on U.S. rates.

"Beyond that (Fed meeting) there's still a big risk of euro/dollar falling," he added.

Last week the European Central Bank raised rates for the first time in five years to 2.25 percent but has indicated there would not be an extended stretch of monetary tightening, limiting the euro's gains against the dollar.

By contrast, the Federal Reserve is poised to raise rates for a 13th straight time on Dec. 13, taking the fed funds rate to 4.25 percent. It is seen rising to at least 4.5 percent next year.

ECB Governing Council members Klaus Liebscher and Vitor Constancio are due to speak on Monday morning, while ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to attend the Euro Group of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels at 1700 GMT.

China yuan exchange reform will not trigger heavy dollar selling - UPDATE

Firstly, must thank the ladies for the briefings, always helpful, and informative..:-)

Despite the excitement of watching water running from the ceiling, and down lift shafts and stairs, as the result of a burst pipe 2 floors above, had to have a little dabble at cable, closed this mornings short for + 40, and ever the optimist, now have cable long from 326......usual warning applies..:-)

cable long stopped out for 0....still better than average!....well mine anyway..lol

Stormy,

I'm sure that you don't need my smart @rsed comments now that cable is 70 odd pips above your entry.

May I suggest though that, when you enter a long, you place your stop just underneath the most recent low and leave it there until the position is safely clear. Vice versa if you're short. I know that it's frustrating to watch a 20 odd pip gain being surrendered but nobody ever said that this game was easy. Those 20 odd pips weren't really enough of a safety net imo.

edit: Fwiw I didn't get a signal to go long cable until around 12 noon which was around the time that you were being stopped. Having got that signal it's been intact all afternoon.

hilary,

Smart **se, my **se..:-)

I am fully aware of my shortcomings in this game, and always happy to accept guidance, I am most grateful to you for taking the trouble!!
The long trade came about as I expected a rebound from about 312, unfortunately I was a little late closing my short, and waited a little longer for confirmation (in my view) of the bounce before opening the long.
Had my timing / nerve been better I should have reversed the short @ 312, giving me the long @ 315... but both failed me...oops...:-)

Thank you again for your suggestions, and I will try to do better in future..:-)

ps, I hope you won't be offended by the question, but what gave you the signal you referred to??

Forex - Major currencies rangebound, Commodity-bloc currencies ease

Stormy,

I sent you a am private e-mail wotsit this morning. I don't know if those things actually work or not, so let me know if you don't receive it.

hilary,

Thank you, that is very kind..:-)
I won't be able to check until I get home as we are not allowed private e-mail here at work, I will have a look at home tonight and let you know!

hils,
Message arrived safe and sound thank you..:-)
Will do what I can.

SC

PS Always the case with me, don't envisage that will change

Sorry everybody, I thought this was ForSex Thread!!

Hi there all. Dont know whether anyone can help, but I was wondering if there is a good web site that gives you a larger selection of exchange rates(than above) that you can look at in one go

This week's Economic Data Release Calendar.

Yes, everybody, it's a funny format (again). However, that's the way our buddies in New York have produced it this week. Last time, they spotted it and fixed it.

If my lady friend at DailyFx doesn't sort it out on Monday, I'll email her.

Your pal,

The FX Fairy.

Calendar updated

Hil: For a moment I thought the Fairy had lost his magic touch . . .

I've got some magic mushrooms if you think they might help, MM.

:o)

Strange day today, cable let me escape from a poorly judged entry early on, out for +1. Got my head together and pulled an overlap trade for +50 and +70 (both longs of course), counts as a real good day for me..:-))
Christmas must have come early!

Forex - Dollar steady above 116 yen

I have arrived, battered and bruised, at the end of my first year trading forex.
Something of a surprise really, didn't think I would survive that long, but managed to avoid getting wiped out.....just..:-)
Actually forex is easier than I imagined, unfortunately I am not as good as I hoped, the net result being very expensive....oops
But I don't aim to give up quite yet, it's too much fun!!

In closing I would like to thank those people who have tried to help me over the past year, (won't embarrass them by naming names..:-) ) and to wish all contributors a very merry Christmas and a happy new year, good luck with the trading!!

Regards

SC