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Technical Analysis (TA)     

ptholden - 09 Jul 2007 23:14

I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

ptholden - 12 Jul 2007 14:21 - 47 of 504

Note, this chart doesn't include today's price action.

I mentioned WNG earlier, like many others I have been keeping an eye out for the inevitable bounce. I actually drew the trendline on this chart some days ago, if you look very carefully you can just about make it out on post 4 of this thread; at the time I was talking about the dangers of RSI so did not draw attnetion to it. Anyway, that was a tentative line and it has bounced exactly off there today. Personally I wouldn't go rushing in quite yet, I would much prefer to see the resistance line on the RSI broken which if it happens will post a confirmed BUY signal. My fear is that following today's rise based on the Shares Mag comments, a retracement will follow, before the recovery is actually confirmed.

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cynic - 12 Jul 2007 14:46 - 48 of 504

WNG - why did sp plummet in the first place?

micky468 - 12 Jul 2007 14:51 - 49 of 504

the reson i thing cynic was ie

(Worthington left investors scratching their heads after it announced that its pipeline of new business is worth 125.3m, not the stated 61.3m. It's one thing to maybe get the decimal point in the wrong place, but to mis-state your pipeline of new business by more than half?)

cynic - 12 Jul 2007 15:01 - 50 of 504

but surely that was good news AND that RNS came on 4th July, several days after sp collapsed

cynic - 12 Jul 2007 15:32 - 51 of 504

DOW
have had a good couple of weeks trading this, having closed my long position at 13601 before the real and unwarranted tumble materialised and then bought back the next day at 13517.

have again (just now) closed out at 13685 as there is some resistance at this level.
however, if 13700 is breached, then next target is 14400, and of course 13700 will become the support or stop-loss line

David10B - 12 Jul 2007 16:04 - 52 of 504

Can you do a chart on COH please might relieve the tension.

cynic - 12 Jul 2007 16:44 - 53 of 504

there's already one (of mine) on the COH site, against which i have also commented

David10B - 12 Jul 2007 16:46 - 54 of 504

Thank you but as you know its all lines and squiggles to me---what does it conclude please.

cynic - 12 Jul 2007 16:59 - 55 of 504

read the comment that attached ..... it's in simple straightforward English!

David10B - 12 Jul 2007 17:14 - 56 of 504

Sorry cynic but I CANT SEE IT where is what post number please.

cynic - 12 Jul 2007 17:26 - 57 of 504

go to COH thread
if you didn't clutter up everywhere with your incessant ramblings, you might have found it quicker.
the chart is in the header.
my comments were posts 1721 and 1723 with your own at 1722!

the black line is 200 dma, red = 25 dma and green = 50 dma

200 dma should provide some support, and failing that 25+50 dma converge at 38p at should give considerably more support ...... only if sp fell through that level with some impetus would i be worried (if i was a holder!)

cynic - 12 Jul 2007 17:49 - 58 of 504

DOW
Index is now +180 on the day at 13760, which i think is too far too fast, even though ultimate target is now 14440.
Have taken my life in my hands (not really) and opened a modest short.

s040371giles - 12 Jul 2007 20:42 - 59 of 504

Hope you had a stop in place Cynic! Will be interesting to see how London reacts tomorrow.

Interesting thread - although I don't use indicators such as RSI, all my trades are TA based. Interesting to see how other rules/systems work.

Steve

cynic - 12 Jul 2007 21:32 - 60 of 504

no i didn't, but no real harm done and may well let it run ..... cannot believe Dow jumped 283, but there you go

David10B - 12 Jul 2007 21:40 - 61 of 504

Thank you cynic--how could I have missed that.

cynic - 12 Jul 2007 21:41 - 62 of 504

10B - trust it made sense, even if you may not agree with the conclusion

David10B - 12 Jul 2007 22:59 - 63 of 504

yes it did, just finished mulling through it--thank you.

You may be right and I sincerely hope you are for those in COH as no one likes to see the punter lose.

But I sill do not find any substance in COH and the latest thingy with Snack Attack further clouds the issue.

maggiebt4 - 12 Jul 2007 23:29 - 64 of 504

Would post the chart if I could so since I can't would one of you kind gentlemen look at the rsi chart on EMG I think it shows a failour swing. SP went up 24 today so would I be correct in saying time to buy??? You did say I could ask questions. No rush on reply just practising!

ptholden - 12 Jul 2007 23:36 - 65 of 504

Time for the evening updates following COP, I'll start with SCHE one of Cynic's fave stocks :)

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SCHE had a reasonable run today, but as I stated the SP would run into a block, namely the lower trendline of the channel (pinkish lines) and it did The RSI is in a downtrend indicating at the very least consolidation if not a reversal. However, there is some further scope for a rise in the SP before it bumps into the resistance line, in which case I would expect the lower of the three trendlines to provide additional resistance. What is absolutely startling and this is for the MACD bearish, bullish divergence afficionados is the very strong bearish divergence. By which I mean the SP is going up but the MACD is making lower highs and not just slightly lower highs but significantly lower highs. From a TA perspective this stock is screaming SHORT. Will the TA be preoven correct? We should find out soon. Short from 560p.

Please DYOR, all TA is but my opinion only.

pth

ptholden - 12 Jul 2007 23:53 - 66 of 504

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WNG had a very good day and the RSI seems to have managed a failure swing but it's not a text book move and I am always suspicious of a substantial move following a write up in a mag. I'm going to wait until the SP lifts the RSI above its resistance before suggesting a confirmed Buy. It might mean missing out on a fair few points but after the results debacle, better safe than sorry. Not really convinced about this company at the moment.

pth
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