Not sure if this thread will catch on, because no-one here seems to have much to say about individual british banks, but thought i would add this header to see if we could discuss dividend yields, exposure to sup-prime, good ones, bad ones, take-over targets, when the crisis will end? do you think they have learnt their lesson? I, for one, as a property developer have seen first hand how much stricter they have become with lending habits, struggling to get decent rates for re-mortgaging, basically they appear scared to lend to anyone.

rights issue has been denied by the Company. However, for both the S/Times and S/Telegraph to have mentioned the possibility, presumably there was some close contact . If there has been a leak, this in itself could ruin the timing of any issue since a fall in sp, as a result,could erode the discount the issue price would have with the issue price. I do not hold bb. but would agree with spitfire43 that it is better to take action sooner than later if further funds are required. Large institutional holders I believe include LloydsTSB and Legal and General, so I suspect they would have to agree with any proposal in order to gauge support.

Have you noticed that when times are good, companies can't be bothered going to share holders for a rights issue. They just go for placings, so denying small share holders the chance to take part.

Paragon had a rights issue a few month's back, and it was taken up with over 90% acceptance, I would like to see the press run some articles on this, and remind companies when the good times return.

Golman Sachs warn of bloodbath in coming months.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/14/bcngold114.xml

Thanks mitzy, a little cheery bedtime reading for me.

Interesting article, and I'm sure it's spot on unfortunately, I will continue to slowly buy into high yielding blue chips, but very slowly over the next 18/24 month's. And go long or short when the opportunity present's.

I seem to be more bearish as time goes by, hope I can snap out of it when time is right. If not may have to see a doctor, and ask him to give me something.

Now to bed with a nice pot of honey.........

Its funny but GS were predicting a oil price of $110 a barrel in 2010... its that today in fact its $112 they got that one wrong.

Best short the banks and airlines and hold oils.

cheers.

banks are also not negotiating on any credit card debts............so unless you can pay, then you will go bankrupt.
i notice credit card debt has gone from 1.2 billion to 2.8billion.
Now with HBOS having majority of housing mortgages, if people are struggling with paying, then they might use credit card.......and so the struggle continues.

i can see hundreds of thousands losing their homes.........or being bankrupt either this year or next year...........oh, and poles and other folk will soon see uk aint that great and go back home where theres plenty of work.
And is weak too so that helps people leave uk too.....all people leaving will drive house prices down much further.....and these folk mortgsages getting higher and higher but property getting less and less.

Theres predictions of at least 25% down in house prices and up to 50%.
Maybe i'll buy a house in 18 months or 2 years time when half a million folk are out on the street.

I feel really cheered up now.

Wow, thanks!

And I thought I was miserable.
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i aint miserable.......its just the way things are going to be in UK. The question is how many are going to be on street.........is it 60,000 homes x say 2.5 people per home = 150,000 on street or is it up to 2 million homes x 2.5 people per property = 5 million on street.....haha.

as long as these folk voted labour, i wouldnt mind.
i predicted the doomsday forecast 4 years ago in my office and folk called me pessimistic....amongst other things.
Remember, US prices aint gone up as much as UK. House prices will go down at least 25%....maybe 50%. And there wont be much increase in property for at least 3 years, probably 4.
If one looks at property, there has only been increase of 3% per year until this gov came to power where its up 179% in 10 years. Its been politically driven........you cant live in never never land.

Most people are apathetic and dont know or care about what happens in UK....and so are not aware of tax increases, stealth taxes or other creepy dodgy things this gov does. You reap what you sow in life ultimately. If you vote for crap govrnment.....then if you get crap, why are folk complaining.

Crap in = crap out

A good time to be in BEG, TNO or VTS then, I chose TNO a few weeks back they haven't moved, but BEG are up around 10%.
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From a more optimistic perspective lower house prices are good for first time buyers or people wanting to step up the ladder, they have to borrow less

FTB's will need a decent deposit and the lending rates will be unfavourable. The banks and building societies are in part (large) to blame for the current situation for bombarding households over recent years with offers of cheap money without any thought as to whether the payments could be made. This is not to exonerate the individuals concerned for having the breaking strain of a kit-kat, and a lack of regard as to how they would make the repayments. Unfortunately the banks management will not be the ones suffering.
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falco

problem is house prices need to PLUMMET for 1st time buyers....as mervyn king has ACTUALLY STATED THIS.

to go up 179%, then u need about 50% decline to give 1st time buyers a chance.....oh, ok.....lets say average price now in uk of 200,000 and maybe end of next year, price is 100,000. then maybe 1st time buyers will have a chance.....but millions of people will people will be crying then.......as i say, what goes up, must come down

oh, and banks should be ashamed what they have done esp HBOS. HBOS should be sacked with immediate effect.....they increasing rates more and more making housing crisis a TOTAL CRISIS. as i say, millions will be re-possessed or bankrupt.

Like i said, people haven't quite cottened on yet, there are now very few buyers around, far less than the numbers of properties on the market and that will only get worse, therefore the only way to sell at present (and i'm talking majority, but not prestige or well located homes) is to be substantially cheaper than your competitors... again just been for a walk last hour and no shortage of for sale signs, in fact really quite surprised just how many are available, but i have to say i didn't see one sold sign, - proof enough and exactly what happened in early ninties - the buyers have largely gone...

The widely anticipated BOE 50bn facility announcement seems to have had little effect. It will be interesting to see which bank is brave enough the use this facilty first in a large way, would it not be the same as Northern Rock going to the BOE last year, then when the news broke it caused a lose of confidence in the bank. Another possible danger might be that a bank that uses this facilty first may be heavily shorted, because they could be seen to be the weakest link.

I would imagine that banks would rather go down the right issue route, rather than to the BOE, also I have read the terms are fairly stringent.

This is bad news for the banks.

Just back from a conference involving some of the banks. Very interesting views.
We were banned from using the word crisis, which speaks volumes in itself, but there was some interesting bits getting said.
A large Building Society claims it is not even near a crisis. It was simply a long overdue market correction.
The banks are all saying the same about the 50 Billion though.
The overall lending of the lenders who have withdrawn from the market or folded amounted, last year, to 52 Billion. Therefore, even if the UK banks took the entire BoE offering, it would still not be quite enough to make up for lost market players.
More to the point, the BoE is a central bank, and therefore the money is not ringfenced for UK lenders. It is available to any lender, anywhere in the world, subject to the banks status.
The problem for the banks is not a lack of money, or even really capital adequacy. It is the end of the merry go round of moving money. Perversely, this may benefit banks, if it goes on long enough.
Let me explain. A bank lends money on a 2 year fixed rate. It thoroughly expects that 2 years later, the loan will be repaid in full as the borrower moves elsewhere, and so the redemptions coming in make up the bulk of the money it needs for new lending that month. The rest is raised through LIBOR, or bank reserves.
Now, LIBOR is too expensive and reserves are low, but worse, people are not redeeming their mortgage. This causes a problem because the fees associated with the new mortgages are where lenders make their money. No new mortgages equals no new profits, but the ones staying with them pay a much higher rate and so profitability comes, just much more slowly. Perhaps 18 months rather than straight away.
Either way, they do make money, but it is a conundrum as to whether they want to end the problem now, or not.
Finally, they think that we are heavily dependant on USA sentiment and that will change with a new president in November, though it may take up to 6 months after that for the benefits to migrate across the atlantic.
Very interesting day.

Wish it was as simple as that, the underlying problem is that financial institutions are still unable to put a value on the various derrivatives they are holding as there is little or no market for this dubious paper. Hence the ongoing need to make massive provisions. Injecting liquidity into the market will not in itself make these " dud" pieces of paper any more valuable until confidence returns to the market.

Interesting post Alan as always. What really concerns me is that if Sir Fred Goodwin and his team think there is no need for capital raising in February (and I believe they were genuine at that time) then find the need 12BN or more a couple of months later, they really do not have a clue what is going on within their business. The numbers for the various financial instruments are so vast against the banks capital bases that who knows what will happen next. Suspect it will all come right in the end, but the bonuses taken by some of these guys over last few years, whilst driving their business in what now appears to be an uncontrolled manner, make a grumpy old man like me very angry.

Why has AL. drop 50p today? Is it a likely candidate for rights issue next?