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FTSE / DOW YTD

Imho the market is mostly wandering around a the moment based on the strength or weakness of the pound based on economic data and Brexit.

Good news on Brexit means FTSE falls due to reduced value of dividends in pounds (e.g. RBSB & BP.). Likewise LLOY should rise on good Brexit news or rising interest rates but often the sell bots just sell everything for a while, until the investors arrive and start pushing LLOY up.

You can see it all over the place right now and clearly see how much of the algo trades are based on the exchange rate. Some of them appear very badly programmed and whilst this has worked for a long time, they seem to fail to differentiate between "brexit is fixed, so profits will fly, therefore go long" and instead go "exchange rate indicates cost of debt rises, therefore go short"


You can see this today on INTU and HMSO. With retail sales figures being really good I would have expected them to rise, based on rationale of retailers profits improve equals rent stable or going up, but deffo not worse. However, what's actually happened is some algo has thrown significant sell volume at INTU presumably on basis of the cost of their debt will rise and repatriated profits in euros will be down as indicated by the exchange rate."
I'm running with good retail sales indicates improving economy equals good for retailers, the algos are running with the opposite. Some 40 minutes after the data the "investors" are starting to arrive and the price has at least stabilised.
Or put another way the algo's logic is "retail sales up" = short retailers. I assume by the same logic "retail sales down" = buy retailers.

So, as I indicated I think some of the current anomalies in the market are due to stupid algo's running proxy trades, which will have worked for the last year but now we come to the turning point, are going to get badly burnt.

At least that's my theory. Make of it as you will. I see rising interest rates as part of a growing strong economy repairing itself after years of under-investment and recession. Others appear to see rising interest rates as the devil in disguise, with the cost of increased debt ready to paint red all over companies profits.

Anyway I'm long INTU intraday. The algo's and one large buyer are having a fight. Neither is winning at the moment. We will see what happens later. So far in 50 minutes I've covered the spread and my trading costs although that could disappear in an instant.

Morning all.

...Well it's like this 🤭

GBP 10-y Bond Auction 1.60|1.9 1.46|2.2

CC,

Thank you.

When, or if, I say my prays before I go to sleep tonight I will read that post again and then ask god to guide me the correct direction during the night as what decisions I should make, if or when I wake up in the morning.

As an atheist, I don't think I will be any more enlightened.

So it will be back to uninformed guesswork.

haha Fred. When I make money I'm completely in tune with the market and a genius. When I lose money I'm still right and the city boys couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag.

Anyways cable getting close to 1.33. A significant move. FTSE is doing well not to fall given sterling strength today

FTSE/DOW without the false April gap in the MAM chart above.

Interesting times. I am off tomorrow.

It's witching. Triple witching I think.

Which means we should get some proper direction once that's over.

Good morning or afternoon for Stan when he rolls out of bed. :-))

Good morning.

The Papers

Good morning!

Morning all...and D/C -);

'There's something the European political elite don't want you to know'
'Are you prepared for the collapse of the Euro?'.

These ads are driving me mad. Does Moneyam really have to sink so low as to accept advertising like this?

Wow Stan, good morning. :-))

Britain posts much larger-than-expected budget deficit in August

May: EU must respect UK in Brexit talks