how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Thanks MegaBucks, here's the link to make it easier.

Real Time Dow

Excellent, MegaBucks!
And it's free!

Megabucks and Snoball:
Brilliant sites for charting and free aswell. Thanks a lot
rgds
zarif

No problem:-)

goodmorning everybody,
What are your views on trade today. I reckon we are going north today.
rgds
zarif

Afternoon everyone:
An intersting article that i came across on my sorties in cyberspace.

Re: The 50% retracement article for the dow:

That level represents the half-way point between the all-time high of 11,722 reached by the Dow ($INDU: news, chart, profile) and its low last year of 7,286. The blue-chip average has been hovering around this level for several weeks now, closing modestly above it on some occasions and below it on others before ending Tuesday's action at 9,576.

As Jack Adamo of Jack Adamo's Insiders Plus newsletter put it recently: "According to Dow Theory, when a bear market rally makes up more than half the decline from the previous top, it is more likely to test the old high than the old low. Obviously then, that halfway mark is an important juncture."

Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, adds: "I'm interested to see whether the Dow can pull up and away from 9,504, or whether 9,504 will act as a 'magnet,' and in the end be too much for the Dow to overcome."

I nevertheless have my reservations about this 50 percent retracement principle, for several reasons.

First, it's not clear that either Charles Dow, for whom the Theory is named, or William Peter Hamilton, who spelled out and interpreted the Theory in a series of Wall Street Journal editorials in the first three decades of the last century, ever mentioned this principle.

That's according to Bill James, a Sacramento-based investor and author who has devoted much of his life to studying the Dow Theory. James has been working on a book about the Dow Theory for 20 years, and not only has he not found any reference in Dow's or Hamilton's writings to such a principle, he believes that they would have "quickly discarded" it as being "too much in conflict" with the rest of their Theory.

Apparently, the 50 percent principle was instead introduced by E. George Schaefer, who published a newsletter in the middle years of the last century by the name of Dow Theory Trader.

On one level, of course, it shouldn't matter whether this principle is or isn't part of the Dow Theory. The key question is whether it is a helpful market-timing tool. And I'll get to that in a minute.

But it is important to be clear and precise about what any theory entails, for without that precision it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to judge its effectiveness in a scientific way. For example, if someone told you that the Dow Theory has a poor track record, you wouldn't know whether the Theory that was tracked included the 50 percent principle or not.

All in the interpretation

In any case, the key question is whether the 50 percent principle is effective. Answering this is not as straightforward as you might imagine, however. It depends crucially on how it is interpreted.

For example, Adamo's formulation of the 50 percent principle is true, but only trivially so. Even if the stock market's movements were entirely random, the 50 percent principle would still appear to be true.

After all, if I'm closer to the market's high than to its low, which would be the case once it has retraced 50 percent of the previous bear market, random volatility alone would make it more likely that the market sooner makes it back to that high before making it back to that low.

To study the effectiveness of the 50 percent retracement principle, I therefore measured the stock market's performance following periods in which it had retraced 50 percent of a previous decline. If the principle is in fact useful, then the market should have performed better following such periods than following other bear market periods when it had failed to retrace 50 percent of its decline.

Here's how I designed my study:

First, I identified the 18 major bull market tops that occurred between 1896, when the Dow was created, and today.

Then for each of these market tops, I identified the first date thereafter at which the market had declined by 10 percent. I examined all trade days from then until the market subsequently surpassed its previous top.

Next, I segregated all these dates into two categories. The first contained those on which the Dow Industrials had retraced at least 50 percent of the decline from its previous top; the second contained all others.

For all dates in both categories, I measured the Dow's performance over subsequent periods lasting three, six and 12 months.

What I found was that the market performed almost exactly the same regardless of whether the 50 percent retracement principle had been satisfied.

On average, over the three months following trade dates that satisfied the 50 percent principle, the Dow gained 1.0 percent. Over the three months following trade dates that did not satisfy that principle, the blue-chip barometer on average gained 1.3 percent.

Though this difference is not statistically significant, notice that the market actually performed better following periods in which the 50 percent principle was not satisfied.

Consider next the difference over the subsequent six months. On average following periods in which the principle was satisfied, the Dow gained an average of 2.4 percent, as compared to 2.7 percent following periods in which the principle wasn't satisfied. This again is not statistically significant.

And over the subsequent 12 months, the average gain was identical for dates in both categories: 6.1 percent.

To be sure, my particular formulation of the 50 percent principle is not the only way of interpreting it. But the results of my study suggest that it may not be as effective a market-timing tool as many consider it to be.

And that, in turn, suggests that the 9,504 level may not be all that significant after all.

Where is everybody today??

Down 111 at 8465 as I write.
Where are the 'Men in Black'?
Maybe they will step in at 8400.
Who knows?
don't worry zarif - we are here.
There is more to life than the Dow. lol!

check this out: The Men In Black

I bet MegaBucks is piling on the longs.

The ADX on the Dow has signalled a sell.
My guess is that the Dow will turn up soon.

And it is only a guess.

Snoball and Megabukcks:
My shorts are doing brilliantly. I closed out most of them quids in at when 100
down and have taken some longs out for tomorrow.
best rgds
zarif

ps: what do you reckon will happen tomorrow? Surely it will recoup atleast 50 points then I can close some longs out.

Hopefully it is going to be a LONG LONG DAY tomorrow
rgds
zarif

Nicely done zarif. Way to go.
My feeling is a bounce at 9400.
I've just noticed my mistake in post #52.
That should be 9400.
50 points is possible I'm sure (but which way?).

Tell me, why were you short?
Are you following a 'system'?

Snoball: The reason I was short was not because of any system, but gut instinct in that "everyone looks at the same info and there is tendency to follow the herd. So once in a while I take a contrarian approach as everyone is expecting the market to behave in a set way and it always does the opposite.

rgds
zarif

ps: I want the 50-100pts to go upwards

test

zarif. What level are you long from?
Dec Dow futures are bouncing off 9400.
Up to 9410 at the moment.
Bounce looking likely?

Snoball:
My long for Dec Dow Was From 9380 and I closed it out at 9420.
I have taken Chaser Shorts and am looking at positions.
rgds
zarif

What do you think we well do today beside tear our hair out???

Snoball, megabucks, jules99 and everyone look at this:

Buy Kleeneze at 150p or below.

Current mid price: 136p
bid/offer: 132/140
stop loss: 120
Limit buy: 150
Sector:retail
Target : 190
market cap: 64million
Epic Code: KLZ

What do you think?

rgds
zarif

Up, up and away.
Is this the reason why?

Snoball:
I think you have hit it on the nail.
good luck
rgds
zarif

Shite. Down 81.
Now you know why I don't do this any more.

morning all,

have no dow longs open :-)

Mega...