The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

We have support at just above 120 so thats a good thing at least. Hope it holds till news.

Hi dexter,Toyko,Millidog and all.

I do indeed read millidog's postings aswell as bahouse on iii. It inspires me every time I read a post from either, toyko or yourself. You may say that you are a novice but you are more experienced than myself and many more people who posts on this BB and the others.

Always look forward to reading all your posts. I only get the chance to read at nights as I work long hours. Sad I know but PET is the only thing that keeps me going through the day.

Good luck all.

wilbs

Cheers Wilbs, we aim to please!!! IMHO we have another 2-3 weeks wait before we all become alot richer!!!!!

Tokyo

From the FT today

Developing the risks over Iraqi contracts gamble
By Kevin Allison
Published: October 9 2004 03:00 | Last updated: October 9 2004 03:00

When Edwin "Colonel" Drake dug the first oil well in Pennsylvania in 1859, sceptics called it "Drake's folly". But when the oil started flowing, the Colonel had the last laugh, and the petroleum industry was born. Petrel Resources, the Irish oil company, is involved in another big gamble, this time in Iraq. The shares soared to a high of 133p this week compared with 5p at the outset of the war in March 2003 as it appeared closer to winning contracts to develop two big oil fields there. But is this leap justified? The company, which made pre-tax losses of 244,065 last year, has invested heavily in the country, cultivating relationships among tribal leaders and technocrats since 1997. Petrel has connections but these alone will not win contracts. If it succeeds, the pay-out could be enormous but so could the risks. One field, Hamrin, lies within the infamous Sunni Triangle. Control Risks Group, the risk consultancy, says attacks there are likely to continue. Petrel plans to use local militias to provide security and says a similar strategy has worked in the Philippines. But success in Iraq remains far from certain.Kevin Allison

"Petrel has connections but these alone will not win contracts."

They are background processes which will underpin the contract(s) once work gets underway.

good news just coming off CNN, cease fire agreed, insurgents have agreed to hand over their weapons in parts of Iraq(sadr was mentioned). Will keep watching for an up-date if this is true then I would expect monday's press to be full of it, could be a turning point in iraq.

Tokyo

http://www.iraqenergy.com/

check out the stories on iraq energy web page, to back up the CNN story above, good news for Monday's stock price, lets hope there is more positive news for pet & iraq in todays papers, please post any sunday newspaper stories on pet here

thanks
Tokyo

This from the ample thread, not my figures I'm afraid, but might be of use to those trying think of a reasonable SP after announcements

Estimated PET stock price

Just checked my own maths and can't see anything wrong in the cold light of dawn except that I didn't add the current value to the value of won contracts therefore, IMHO the share price projection is:

1 contract = 1.99 + 83p = 2.82
2 contracts = 3.98 + 83p = 4.81
3 contracts = 5.97 + 83p = 6.80

Even if you discount PETs estimate of the value of the contract wins by say 30%, that is still very healthy.

Thanks fr the info. Tokyo. Would'nt it be nice if the price reached to 2 pounds by the end of next week!!!

Recent article in the Telegraph..........


Petrel's only for strong stomachs

Petrel Resources has seen its shares soar in the past two weeks, from 44.5p on September 22 to 130p last night, ahead 12.5 on the day. Not bad for a company whose house broker has never issued any research and which (currently) has no City spinner to talk up the shares.

So what is going on? Petrel is a small Irish oil and gas company hoping to hit the big time in Iraq. Petrel's advantage is that it is Irish (and so neutral) and has been in Iraq since before Saddam Hussein was toppled. Petrel has already won the right to drill for oil in Iraq's western desert. The company is drilling four wells, hoping for a one in three hit rate.

In the next six weeks it will find out if it has won one of three licences to develop known fields in the north, south and central parts of Iraq (each with more than 100m barrels per day).

But the real excitement is what is below these three (relatively shallow) fields. Petrel is hoping there is a lot more black gold to be found and it will be able to take a share of around 30pc of any newly discovered oil.

Valuing a business like Petrel is difficult. The drilling rights in the western desert could be worth 60p a share, while each production licence could add another 30p per share. But there are a lot of "ifs" here, not least the political risk of investing in a country that does not yet have a permanent government.

Petrel's shares are a highly risky play. Just about the only certainty about its shares is that they are unlikely to stay where they are now for long. If you've got the stomach for it, buy. Otherwise avoid.


articles in the Times & Telegraph this weekend, insurgents handing over weapons, DH reportedly off to Iraq next weekend, should make for another interesting week for the Share price!!

Tokyo

Lets see if anything happens tomorrow...

Buy Petrel Resources at 121.5p Recommended by Stewart Dalby of www.oilbarrel.com


In July on Oilbarrel we wrote that there was some unpleasant news coming out of Iraq. The news since then has not got any better. We thought then and now that although there are clearly security problems, and it will take longer to bring the oilfields up to par than was originally envisaged, the oil industry will be revived one way and another. We believed companies like London and Dublin quoted Petrel Resources which have been patiently involved in Iraq since 1998 and could be in the pole position to benefit from any oil deals

We wrote this when the shares were selling at 45p. Since then they have motored up to 121.5p on the back of a belief that Petrel might just pull something off. Well, now it looks as if it might have done just that. The company has recently stated that it has been summoned to the oil ministry in Baghdad for "an urgent and direct discussion to finalise all technical and commercial matters". This is the call Petrel has been waiting for.
The discussions relate to the three tenders submitted by Petrel between April and June of this year for three major oil development projects: The Khurmala Dome, Hamrin and Subba/Luhais oil fields. The three projects are likely to be among the first to be sanctioned for the for development by the Iraqi government because in the words of Petrel chairman, John Teeling: "They are proven, ready to go and all the preliminary work has been done."
The Subba/Luhais project in southern Iraq envisages daily production of 200,000 barrels of oil . It used to produce around 180,000 b/d before going into decline. Khurmala, in the Kirkuk area of northern Iraq and Hamrin in central Iraq, are each targeted to produce in excess of 100,000 barrels of oil per day. The Three oil fields may hold in excess of 2 billion barrels of oil and could be on stream within 24 months.

But this could be just the start . Iraq is known to have 115 billion barrels of oil reserves, second only to Saudi Arabia which is usually credited with 265 billion barrels. But much of Iraq remains under-explored. The whole of the Western Desert is in theory up for grabs. David Horgan, the Managing Director at Petrel says: "There is tremendous opportunity at the Jurassic, for example , which is productive in Saudi Arabia but which has never been produced in Iraq.. That is not because it is not there. There are some big structures on the seismic."

Of course questions of security have still to be worked out. A company of Petrel's size and resources might not realistically expect to get all of all three concessions to itself. There will be farm outs presumably. But 2 billion barrels are a lot of reserves, look at what the discovery of less than this amount by Cairn in India did for that company's share price. Any involvement at all will be company making for Petrel - at 121.5p it is capitalised at just 91 million pounds. The company looks to be ahead of the field as the major s are still standing back from involvement in Iraq. Petrel's shares have come back this morning on profit taking. All they still worth a punt? Definitely.
Key Data
EPIC: PET
Market: AIM & Dublin
NMS: 5,000
Spread: 120-123p
Market Cap: 91 million pounds

thought a chart might help

Weekend Share Watch (p.M4): Petrel Resources: success in Iraq remains far from certain

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=462988

Universe

Felt very concerned about your awful problem of having to pay CGT on 100K profit - kept me awake thinking about it. A simple answer then occurred to me. Don't sell the shares but tuck them away for a couple of eyars to take advantage of the AIM allowances (assuming you are happy that they won't fall back - given that its only a matter ot time before the oil gushes, that could be unlikely). Then borrow the 100K to invest in the next PET, or two, or three. If you are old like me, equity release means you effectively don't pay interest; quite some advantages in being old, yet young enough to enjoy the profits.

Eric

just catching up on all the posts here, really nothing of importance in the weekend press as far as stock tips "If they succeed the upside is massive if they fail the opposite is true!" - well no shit Sherlock, I could have written that story anytime throughout this year.

The two bits of news which could have some effect on PET share holders today, could be Friday's unfortunate news on the beheading of Ken Bigley, Panic sellers who were unable to get out on Friday may wish to Monday morning, although on the positive news on the cease fire may attract more investors over to PET as the situation in Iraq appears to be settling down for the present.

I shall try to get back for 4pm (UK 8am) to see what happens on the market today, also if there are any newspaper stories on the cease fire.

Could be a good week, remembering of course that the Iraqis are in Ireland for another week, then David Horgan is reportedly off to Iraqi for meetings with the oil ministry (hopefully to put pen to paper on tenders 1 & 2!!!!)


See you guys later


Tokyo

morning tokyo,
you`ve been busy over the weekend !,some good and interesting posts.people seem to be getting a bit nervy,understandable though.
dexter

morning dexter01 - yeah quite a few nervous investors popping up, shame really as all this share needs is a bit more time, another 2 weeks in my opinion. All imho of course

Tokyo

i know all these bombings etc are well documented and reported worldwide,but no-one seems to have picked up on what the iraqi prime minister said last week or so.,that 13 of 15 provinces in iraq are stable.now to me thats not as drastic as everone would have you believe,i know the remaing two are in a very bad state and there are unspeakable goings on
tokyo, PET is being backed by a japanese co.,what is the japanese stance on iraq,as far as them being neutral?.
dexter