cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
HARRYCAT
- 30 Jan 2010 08:24
- 4746 of 21973
I read the other day that a key pivot point for the FTSE was 5190. Should it finish below that level, further downside was expected.
Are you still in touch with your Guru, Cynic, to confirm or deny that?
cynic
- 30 Jan 2010 09:08
- 4747 of 21973
it's the Dow that concerns me, as i really thought we would see a decent rally last night after the GDP numbers and also as people closed short positions at the end of a grim week ..... not so
5190 is indeed a key FTSE number and SHOULD provide support, though he suggested a stop loss at 5075/5100 ..... and after last night's beastliness in NY, 5135 is the indicated opening level for monday
very worrying times
cynic
- 30 Jan 2010 09:47
- 4748 of 21973
despite the above, i do not buy into the double-dip recession fear .....
As published, US Q4 GDP rose by 5.7%
This doesnt look like a freak, as assuredly chemical shipments from US are continuing apace.
The implication is that companies (F/E?) are restocking in a hurry, but this does not necessarily apply directly to UK
HARRYCAT
- 30 Jan 2010 10:26
- 4749 of 21973
Thanks. Was tempted to pump a bit more cash into the market (particularly the miners) next week to take advantage of the dip, but if there is further to drop, may just wait & watch.
required field
- 30 Jan 2010 11:28
- 4750 of 21973
My view is that it's just a normal pullback ; where is the bad news ?, it's already in the price of the drops....I reckon when all this pans out : ftse will jump up by 100 points very quickly as investors realise that the drop is overdone...when will this happen...can't say......could be triggered by an upsurge overnight on the Australian market...
cynic
- 30 Jan 2010 12:25
- 4751 of 21973
timing is always the major or indeed the only issue ...... if we were vestal virgins we just might have a better idea of when that might be
required field
- 30 Jan 2010 12:32
- 4752 of 21973
Everybody was tipping gold only 2 weeks ago...now people are saying : told you so......it's just guesswork about when the rebound will come.....I would say : very tight stoplosses on the shorts....I made the mistake of going long on PVCS, made one profit and then got greedy for a second lot.....now I shall have to ride it out or take a bad loss.....this is a tricky market and I'm no expert...unless there is another banking disaster waiting in the wings I would like to think that a good recovery is going to happen with ftse putting a lot of weight on in the second half...it's just that at the moment the market has doubts.
cynic
- 30 Jan 2010 12:50
- 4753 of 21973
i rather get the feeling that the market has (i hope had) taken too much + too soon recovery into the prices .... i don't see another banking crisis looming, and i suppose we'll get used to the galaxy-sized debt that the world has got itself into ..... certainly there are a lot of strong company results coming out, but with the markets distinctly bearish (at the moment), these are ignored and the stock is sold down regardless
required field
- 30 Jan 2010 13:01
- 4754 of 21973
I hope we don't get a snowball process that means that everybody starts selling....
cynic
- 30 Jan 2010 13:14
- 4755 of 21973
ah well, there's the nub, and confess i keep vacillating between the two views ...... hard to imagine that monday will be cheery though, especially at opening - unless F/E takes an unexpectedly upbeat view of US GDP numbers ...... shall try to remember to post indicators here tomorrow night (if available) or earlyish monday morning
Chris Carson
- 30 Jan 2010 14:21
- 4756 of 21973
Speculation Speculation Speculation! I guess (emphasise the word guess) why trading these markets are so fascinating for me personally anyway, thank God I don't do this for a living. I have only been trading for four years as a hobby with money I can afford to lose but even with my limited experience, I have learned that fear and greed rule the roost, doesn't seem to matter whether their is good news or bad news out there, sentiment rules the day. Nobodys died yet! :o)
cynic
- 01 Feb 2010 18:27
- 4757 of 21973
what a very difficult market this is ..... seems to me that one just has to suck one's teeth and take a position (or not) as to what's going to happen next.
for all that, it's certainly encouraging - and a great relief - to see both FTSE and Dow surging back up through their "failed" support levels ..... always provided it's not a 2 day wonder
HARRYCAT
- 01 Feb 2010 21:29
- 4758 of 21973
DOW +119. I will have a stab at predicting that morning (long) trading in London should be reasonable. Hope that the miners are looking to bounce back & may take profit at lunchtime.
cynic
- 02 Feb 2010 15:34
- 4759 of 21973
now it starts getting interesting or even difficult ...... Dow up quite strongly yesterday, and heading firmly north again ...... sustainable or too far too fast?
KEAYDIAN
- 02 Feb 2010 16:14
- 4760 of 21973
Too far to fast.
cynic
- 02 Feb 2010 16:20
- 4761 of 21973
quite possibly ... am long Dow and have put in a sensible stop to lock in a useful profit if it gets hit
required field
- 02 Feb 2010 16:58
- 4762 of 21973
3 blue days in a row.....hope there's more to come....quite a few risers across the board today.....DGO and TLW up notably.
cynic
- 02 Feb 2010 17:06
- 4763 of 21973
this should help the good guys ....
Ford says January vehicle sales jumped 24% from a year earlier.
required field
- 02 Feb 2010 17:07
- 4764 of 21973
And ...alleluia....oil is up by nearly $2.....should push oilies a lot... lot higher tomorrow if this stays as it is.
required field
- 03 Feb 2010 11:01
- 4765 of 21973
Ftse rising.....4 blue days in a row ?...possible..