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Technical Analysis (TA)     

ptholden - 09 Jul 2007 23:14

I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

dynamix - 13 Sep 2007 17:50 - 481 of 504

they should only be used to confirm a trend or direction when price crosses them. they lag and are useless for entry points in any other way. (apart from the 200 its seems!)

maggiebt4 - 13 Sep 2007 18:03 - 482 of 504

I thought that when the 5 crosses the 20 indicates buy and vice versa sell. Have been checking that out on several charts and it seems to work all be it slightly after the trend starts

cynic - 13 Sep 2007 18:53 - 483 of 504

of course they only confirm a trend, but to rubbish the crossing as being "useless for entry points" is rubbish itself! ...... to repeat; never claimed charts of any kind were gospel, but they sure give a damn good indication, especially when linked to any impetus behind such a move, when might be a good time to get in or out

dynamix - 13 Sep 2007 19:28 - 484 of 504

yes magg those MA's will keep you trading in the right direction which is the aim of the game I suppose, long term though they can eat up any profits gained in choppy ranging market conditions.

explanation (before cynic goes all cynical)

look at a longer term chart with your MAs attached, focus on choppy ranging periods. you will see that the price turns under and above the 20 MA and by time the 5 MA crosses the price is making its way back above the MA, this price action will whipsaw you in and out of positions negatively..

Although the strategy may have a positive outcome over the very long term (it most likely does), I know of many people who used this or similar strategy and gave up because they get impatient and annoyed during the choppy times, whilst giving some of their profits back.

Then you also have the problem of maximising any profits and riding the trends out until the end. If you don't do this then the choppy times will definitely take away what little you made in the trend. So no closing early after a few days of profit. :) You gotta see it through to until the death.

In my opinion you have to be strong willed and disciplined to succeed with a MA cross stategy. I'm not as strong as that. I like to nibble from price action and get out quicker. I have not the patience to keep trades open for months or even years. (only the odd little share buy/flutter)



dynamix - 13 Sep 2007 19:32 - 485 of 504

this is also why I prefer the price crossing say a 50 MA rather than an MA crossing

at least you are following the price and not an MA that is say (if set to 5) 5 days behind the price...

cynic - 13 Sep 2007 20:17 - 486 of 504

strong willed and disciplined ..... you got it in one!..... whichever so-called system you choose to follow, that is still the dictum

dynamix - 13 Sep 2007 20:27 - 487 of 504

Yes it is. I can be disciplined for short term. But get frustrated by positions which dont move for weeks.

dynamix - 13 Sep 2007 20:32 - 488 of 504

I know my own character and flaws in it, so trade accordingly. I learnt the hard way though..

cynic - 13 Sep 2007 20:46 - 489 of 504

managed to be a "good boy" and closed out my Dow long with a modest profit but a profit nonetheless .... if Dow now roars ahead at the cllse, so be it

dynamix - 13 Sep 2007 20:48 - 490 of 504

tut tut posting exits and not entries again ;-)

maggiebt4 - 13 Sep 2007 21:18 - 491 of 504

Just on the foothills of the strong willed and disiciplined mountain but have learned to accept my losses without cutting my throat. Now need to control that demon greed and set stop losses when I've got a profit. I have some shares that i just let sit but that's because I'm loosing sooooooooooooo much there's not worth cashing in. Am also learning to sit on my hands and not rush in until I see some indicators.
Have been watching UKC for some time seems like a good trading share opinions welcomed.

cynic - 13 Sep 2007 21:47 - 492 of 504

don't be a bitchy littkle queen ..... i think i did elsewhere actually, and if you really want to know, bought at 13385 and sold at 13420

dynamix - 13 Sep 2007 21:57 - 493 of 504

I got to the top of that mountain numerous times, magg , and fell back to the bottom.

Its difficult to pick yourself up and climb again.

I took some time out a couple of years ago and read some books on self discipline, and in particular I picked up on using methods of self punishment if I break my rules.

Just silly things, like I create a job which I dread doing round the home or garden and then make myself do it when I break the rules.

It's not exactly a deterrent but it keeps the "rule breaking" fresh in my head and I find I think about not breaking them more often..

I have also got my methods for each instrument I trade priinted out in big black font on a note board to the right of PC monitor. I try to read them whilst I'm watching trades come good (or bad :( )

dynamix - 13 Sep 2007 21:57 - 494 of 504

oh wind your neck in , I put a winking smiley mr big shot

silvermede - 13 Sep 2007 22:48 - 495 of 504

dyna, maggie, have you written yourselves a Trading Plan? If not suggest you research and find a good draft of one, that should instill some discipline if you stick to it, including 'punishments', like cease trading until you have addressed the 'problem'. Hope that helps. Trade2win.com website has an example in its articles.

maggiebt4 - 13 Sep 2007 23:40 - 496 of 504

That sounds very interesting will investigate even if my initial reaction is I'd probably cheat on the punishments. Think I've a long way to go in this self discipline.

cynic - 14 Sep 2007 07:57 - 497 of 504

dyna ..... u did indeed ... my apologies for being blind as well as a bit touchy

could be of concern that, in the end, Dow barely held above 50 dma ....... if London reacts badly to NRK news, then Wall Street could easily follow suit

ptholden - 14 Sep 2007 13:01 - 498 of 504

I think it's safe to say London reacted quite badly to the NRK news Cynic.

Interesting stuff re trading discipline, probably the toughest area to master. Even when you think you have the TA tools / knowledge to trade / invest with moderate success, along come those demons to mess with your stops and limits. Personally I gave this considerable thought over the summer, I came to the conclusion that if I stick to trading trending stocks, the simplest way in which to stick to the plan is to place stops and limits at resistance / support levels and then close no matter what. If the TA is correct in the first place, then one shouldn't go too far wrong.

Sounds awfully simple :)

pth

Druid2 - 03 Oct 2007 22:33 - 499 of 504

Question from someone who has just recently found this thread.

On the UK:BARC hourly chart the SMA(20) has crossed through the SMA(50) today - Is this a Golden Cross? Does this give us any signal for the next few days/weeks?

Thanks in advance if someone can clarify for me.

ptholden - 04 Oct 2007 22:01 - 500 of 504

The so called golden cross is generally viewed as the 50 moving up through the 200, both of which must be on the way up.

20 through the 50 may be positive, although don't use any one indicator in isolation, look at others and especially the trend, resistance and supprt.

All IMHO of course

pth
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