ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

John

Good post, you are absolutely right of course that the envelope may push upwards. As I said before, I can't seem to make up my mind on this one!

Incidenatlly, I think to be fair to point out to one and all, that I do not pretend to be an expert on TA. I merely use the basics, trendlines, support, resistance, RSI, volume, MACD and a few well known charting techniques to try and hazard a guess as to what may happen next. I have a load of stuff on candlesticks, but haven't quite got round to reading it all yet. So, as far as TA is concerned, I am very happy to listen to the greater knowledge of John.

regards

PTH

johngtudor, ptholden

Its great having you two guys analysing the charts. Despite having a Maths background, I suspect I am somewhat right-brained when I look at charts and feel happier going by intuition. Its also good having the charts to refer to at pth's post 400. My intuition says that the sp can't bounce off the BB because it is approaching it at right angles (we can't go back in time, or can we?). Another intuitive point on today's trading. Sells heavily outweighing buys - yet the price has risen 0.25p. Why? My suggestion is that the MMs are soaking up stock on the assumption that there is going to be a heavy demand; i.e. their own reading from a combination of newsflow and charts is that demand will be getting significantly heavier in the near future and they want to have the stock to fulfil it, making loads of lolly of course. Is this standard theory or should I give it a name?

By the way, caught PTH giving as a reason to buy CFP that he should win this competition! My response is - read the YOO thread for comments by mactavish today. My feel is that ASC and YOO (possibly 'even' CFP and certainly PET) can move a long way quickly once the momentum builds up.

Thanks again to mysunshine for encouraging comments - as pth, recommend accumulate to overweight position. I'll return later to jgt's comments re maximum stake in a particular share (depends on onjectives).

Eric

Eric, don't rule out my CCN I am up 20%+ already !!

capa

capa

Well done; could well be leader after week 2. Ouch! Was that a 10% fall today - yes, but your +20% allows for that. Mind, I think you're tarred with the same brush as pth. Just looked at your site and: who is doing the buying? yes, you guessed it, capa!

Eric

Yes Eric 10% drop today which meant I was up 40% by yesterdays close.

Personally I hope MPH win I've got a lot more on that stock than CCN.

capa

MPH TO WIN, 100p in a few weeks WHAT A SHARE!!! ramp ramp ramp lol

Order books looking good and encouraging comments from the company recently, beat forcasted predictions, feel theres still plenty of upside to come yet!

I think we should lay out a few rules here. Obviously from Mysunshine's post, there are 'lurkers' possibb lybeing led astray by reading all of our nonsense, so we should establish that no ramping of our respective picks, (or others for that matter), should be allowed.

























Buy CFP, RAMP RAMP RAMP

LoL, Lol.

On a more serious note, I did think ASC might be red today, and indeed they were, for a while. Sells outnumbered buys, but for some reason they were marked back up by the close. A little baffled as to why the price hasn't been marked down more?

Regards to all

PTH

I don't understand the whole buys/sells pricing thing either PTH. Just had a scan through some prices and CWO(I don't own any,just looking)went up 45% with more sells than buys.Shame we weren't that lucky with ASC!

Sorry, my mistake make that 66%.

Eric,

Here's a question for you. I have just copied a sentance from one of your previous posts:

'My suggestion is that the MMs are soaking up stock on the assumption that there is going to be a heavy demand; i.e. their own reading from a combination of newsflow and charts is that demand will be getting significantly heavier in the near future and they want to have the stock to fulfil it..'

Take today's trades re ASC, more sells than buys. So why not mark the price down, pay less for the stock and make more profit when the demand increases? OK, you may suggest that fewer investors will sell if the price is marked down too much, but then again, it may panic more into selling. Now this scenario I could understand, if buys outnumber sells, or are even, but not if sells outnumber buys. Confused today, or is it because it's been a crap allround day and my brain is refusing to work?

Regards

PTH

johngtudor

Said I would come back on some thoughts on relative size of share holdings. Its better to do it before turning in as quite a lot on tomorrow - super performance of Absent Friends followed by good curry plus red wine has left me feeling pleasantly mellow and wishing to spread bonhomie and words of wisdom.

Reference is post 1174 by overgrowth on CFP thread. He recommends a relatively old book called The Zurich Axioms which goes against the grain of much conventional wisdom. One axiom is "put all your eggs in one basket". Perhaps not to be taken literally, but he does argue that the more diversification, the less risk and the less the gain. I was up to 65% on ASC at one time in August before taking some profits. But I am still in about 35%. Of course the 65% was largely the result of the share more than doubling. The associated axiom, I assume, is run your profits and cut your losses; despite the share becoming over-weight. I have been running 4 shares in a portfolio of 100K+. I am now back up to 12 after researching the ASOS Challenge Portfolio and being sold on each one!

However, the first key question concerns the objectives that one has as an investor. My objective is, very simply, capital gain. I am comfortable with risk, because I see risk as two-sided: no downside risk, no upside gain. It wouldn't be a disaster if the shares went down the pan. It would effect my lifestyle as I am counting on withdrawing some capital each year to supplement pensions. But a dividend yield would not meet my lifestyle requirements anyway. In practise, I feel that there is acceptably low risk in holdings like ASC, YOO and AZM plus probably all this portfolio, apart from the energy shares. As I have mentioned before, I see a maximum of 10-15% of my portfolio as being in higher risk sectors / shares (such as the energy shares). The conclusion is that this objective and risk-attitude assessment should precede any evaluation of a specific portfolio.

Interested in other's approaches. Good night, or rather, good morning!

Eric

Eric: Thanks your late night mellow comments, but we all hope you then had a good night's rest!! Re your comments on Portfolio balance, I do agree that allocating the % of a portfolio to invest in a particular share or indeed sector is of course down to the individuals own approach to risk. One approach I use is to consider averaging UP. Now you will read an awful lot about averaging DOWN, some books will say never, others will say that you can in fact do so under certain circumstances...my own view is to not have rigid stop losses or rigid targets at which any gains are taken from a particular positive run up. But if I see a share that I have invested in for whatever reason doing well...why not put more money on the table and top up. That seems to me a good approach. If taking that course of action means I have to sell off some of the other holdings in the portfolio that are not doing so well...so be it. As to your own holdings the balance looks pretty good, and like you I am just looking for capital gains! Have a great day!! John

John: Your advice on averaging UP is a great principle. There are times to take profits. However, ASC is a case in point. I averaged up after the initial rise in April on the realisation it was going places. I took some profits in June but the news release in July sent the price to new levels beforee it came back in August. I then averaged up again at similar prices to my profit taking. I have taken another bout of profits. Originally this was with the idea of making profits elsewhere whilst asc took a breather. I would probably now be on a third bout of averaging up now if I had not been seduced by all these sexy shares in our portfolio and/or had some more cash! I certainly would encourage portfolio holders, and other readers, to go overweight in ASC, whatever that term means to you. e.g. if your normal maximum holding is 10% go to 20% and don't wait too long! The mellowness has given way to a pleasant, optimistic view of the world and our portfolio. The sun is shining, all is well (my favourite religious person is Julian of Norwich but I won't go down that field). Have a super day! Eric

p.s. The price is down this morning on low key profit taking. Buying opportunity at 60p. Sticking my neck out - this price might not be seen again!

Please take time to see the post I've just made on AZM, referring to a broker tip in today's IC magazine, predicting the price to double by Easter, but also saying that YOO has a better chance of beating ASC in doubling its price. Recommending a 10% holding as its a one-sided bet. Will do a portfolio update later this evening.

Eric

Sorry! Pressed the wrong button! Have a nice evening! Eric

Sold SPS today at 58%(not bad in 7 weeks) profit despite 10% rise today on interim results day. I think we are in for some sideways movement before the next move up. What else should i let go before moving back into ASC?
25% Tesco bought 12/02 +52%
15% Nat Grid bought 04/04 +13%
15% Atkins bought 02/04 +8%
10% cybit bought 09/03 -1%
10% bprg 08/04 +21%
10% sps 08/04 +55%
10% mph 06/04 +90%
5% pet 10/04 -24%
5% pci 09/04 +4%
2.5% azm 02/04 -39%
2,5% iqe 06/04 +2%

other shares sold asc +40% trt -5% wpp -15% prm -25% capita +10% codascisys (my first buy back in the late 90's) +140% I then lost this money on bt and vodafone.

Kivver,

Intersting to see you hold IQE. Surprisngly a good rise today base on the back of substantial sells outweighing buys. Read somewhere that the Semi Conductor business is going to come under a lot of pressure, so although the IQE recovery looks good for the moment, will it last? Just a thought.
Clearly you are not adverse to investing in shares with risk, so I wonder why you continue to hold Tesco as the largest part of your portfolio, when the return is but 52%. I say only 52%, because you have just made 57% out of SPS over a much shorter period. I wouldn't presume to advise you what to sell, in order to buy another stock, just an observation.

Regards

PTH

Interesting reading some people talking about mms taking on stock and marking it up... I suppose they buy the stock back and try to get as much as they can for it, also fooling punters into a false sense of security making them think sellers are buyers and causing buyers to get in on it.

If they were to drop the price significantly then it might panic people into selling and lumber them with a lot of stock. Sometimes if mm short of stock they drop the price to try and pick up cheap shares and to panic people out.

I remember when New Star fund manager sold hundreds of thousands of these at 6p.. what a 42 carat plonker!!

ASOS Challenge Portfolio for week ending 14th October.

company_____ EPIC price,p shares__shares_ price_ value_ cap.(m) gain/
_________________ buy____ issued(M)______ 15-Oct 15-Oct________ loss

Civilian Con CCN_ 16.25__ 41.883__ 30700_ 22.50_ 6907.5_ 9.42__ 38.46
Yoomedia____ YOO_ 22_____ 125.538_ 22700_ 27.50_ 6242.5_ 34.52_ 25.00
Broker Net__ BNH_ 77.5___ 15.065__ 6450__ 87.50_ 5643.8_ 13.18_ 12.90
Petroceltic_ PCI_ 15_____ 484.975_ 33300_ 16.25_ 5411.3_ 78.81_ 8.33
ASOS________ ASC_ 56_____ 67.97___ 8900__ 60.00_ 5340.0_ 40.78_ 7.14
Marchpole___ MPH_ 33.75__ 120.455_ 14800_ 35.50_ 5254.0_ 42.76_ 5.19
Sterling En_ SEY_ 17.25__ 822.712_ 29000_ 17.50_ 5075.0_ 143.97 1.45
CFA Capital_ CFP_ 0.7____ 619_____ 714000 0.70__ 4998.0_ 4.33__ 0.00
Stanelco____ SEO_ 4.5____ 78.225__ 111000 4.25__ 4717.5_ 3.32__ -5.56
cybit hold._ CYH_ 1.82___ 988.952_ 275000 1.60__ 4400.0_ 15.82_ -12.09
Petrel Res__ PET_ 124.5__ 58.625__ 4000__ 106.00 4240.0_ 62.14_ -14.86

total___________________________________________________ 58229.5 5.87

capa has taken the lead with impressive rise with CCN. Demonstrates the potential with the small cap. shares. The other two under 10m cap. are SEO and CFP. The former has recovered much of the lost ground from last week; the latter has refused to budge despite the talking up by pth and others. I, for one, have bought the argument and a decent stake in CFP. They are in a win/win situation with the rapid growth of the AIM market (see article in IC today): it grows their business and investors are turning to AIM for growth (see thread).

The three energy shares are the largest cap. PET dropped to 80p at one time on Thursday on large trading volumes only for buyers to then outweigh sellers and much of the drop being recovered. One suspects it will be either top or bottom by the end of the campaign.

Of the others, BNH and MPH have made good ground this week with legend jumping into third place with BNH (if you are going to put all your eggs in one basket, you could certainly do worse). YOO appears to be on a steady ramp up (worth reading mactavish on the YOO thread). Which brings us back to ASC: steady improvement after period of horizontal training. The answer to Kivver's question above must be not to stay out of ASC - it wouldn't take much for the anticipated profit surge to be anticipated in the share price. The others need to double by the New Year to beat them, I reckon.

Overall, a nearly 6% gain which generally leaves portfolio investors in the blue after spread and dealing expenses. Promising and encouraging!

Yes, now a bad week for the hypothetical investor!!! Good analysis EWR