Perhaps, she wants a new car?

8-)

Lloyds shareholders set for massive windfall
By Lee Wild | Mon, 3rd August 2015 - 13:10
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Lloyds shareholders set for massive windfallLloyds Banking Group's (LLOY) half-year results may have been mixed, but the high street lender still has an army of fans in the City. Two of them have just upgraded forecasts for 2015 and one thinks the bank could return as much as £25 billion to shareholders over the next three years.
Second-quarter numbers were largely positive, with a sharp drop in impairments meaning underlying pre-tax profit of £2.2 billion beat consensus estimates by 13%. A £1.4 billion charge for payment protection insurance (PPI) mis-selling was "disappointing" though, and the CET1 ratio - a key measure of balance sheet strength - missed forecasts.

But, on the day that the UK government sold its stake in Lloyds down below 14%, JP Morgan says it believes the bank's capital generation exceeds upcoming pressures from risk-weighted assets (RWA) harmonisation and conduct. It also upgrades adjusted pre-tax profit forecasts by 3% for this year to £8.75 billion. Of course, the chancellor's post-Summer Budget tax grab means EPS cuts for the following two years.

"With the shares trading at 9.1x P/E vs European banks sector at 10.5x P/E FY17E and 1.4x P/TNAV for 14.9% RoNAV 16E, we remain overweight," the broker says, repeating its 105p price target.

Coincidentally, that's also what the team at Barclays reckons Lloyds shares will be worth.

"Lloyds shares currently trade at a 1.5x 2015E tangible book multiple. While this may appropriately reflect the returns that the company can generate, we do not believe that it factors in the extent of capital return that we expect over the coming years," says analyst Rohith Chandra-Rajan.

And the return could be substantial. "We continue to see the prospect of capital return and the final exit of the UK government as the main catalysts for share price outperformance from Lloyds over the next 12 months."



(click to enlarge)

Barclays expects Lloyds to be significantly capital accretive with the current 13.3% common equity tier 1 ratio (CET1) ratio forecast to rise above 14% this year and to near 18% in 2018.

"We forecast £14 billion of dividends being paid out to 2018 with capacity to return an additional £7-11 billion of capital to shareholders through share buybacks or special dividends," adds Chandra-Rajan. "That’s a total of £21-25 billion of capital that could be returned, or 35-40% of the company's current market capitalisation."

That works out at 30-35p a share, with about 20p in ordinary dividends and the rest through additional capital distributions. "We shouldn’t have to wait long to see this policy implemented."

Just what shareholders receive could depend on potential changes to risk weightings, particularly in the mortgage book. This, says Barclays, could ultimately result in mortgage RWA floors implemented at somewhere between 15% and 25% (see below).



(click to enlarge)

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

Fred - see post 4810 above :-)

Heading for 80p again. I can't believe it.

I first bought these in 2011 for 39p and ever since have been selling quarter or a third and then buying them back cheaper over and over.

I last sold out at 80p and for the last few months thought it would never come back down again

I think I'm more upset that's it drifted all the way back down here than I am curious to see if I'll get the opportunity to get in around 77-78p

Skinny,

Did read and felt better, but have to admit I sold out at a profit but stupid enough to buy some SBS on the drop and thought double bounce and not smiling as much.

Thought it worth about 100-110p!

.

Support on the 200 DMA?

Seems not! 78p looking likely.

Interpret as you feel fit!

13 August 2015



LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC ("GROUP") - NOTIFICATION OF A TRANSACTION BY A PERSON DISCHARGING MANAGERIAL RESPONSIBILITIES ("PDMR") IN ORDINARY SHARES OF THE GROUP OF 10P EACH ("SHARES")

On 12 August 2015, the Group was notified that Andrew Bester, a PDMR, had acquired 682,761 Shares in the Group following the exercise on the same day of a share buyout award for nil consideration. The details of the share buyout award were announced in August 2012. Mr Bester has retained 360,933 Shares after the disposal of 321,828 Shares to meet income tax and national insurance contributions arising from the acquisition. The Shares were sold at 80.4812 pence per Share.
Following the above transaction, Andrew Bester continues to comply with the Group's shareholding policy requirements.
This disclosure is made pursuant to the Financial Conduct Authority's Disclosure and Transparency Rule 3.1.4. The transaction took place in the UK and the Shares are listed on the London Stock Exchange.


ENQUIRIES:

Investor Relations
Douglas Radcliffe +44 (0) 20 7356 1571
Investor Relations Director
Email: douglas.radcliffe@finance.lloydsbanking.com

Group Corporate Affairs
Andrew Swailes +44 (0) 20 7356 1714
Senior Media Relations Manager, Corporate
Email: andrew.swailes@lloydsbanking.com



=-=-=-=-=-=-=


Date Broker New target Recomm.
13 Aug Exane BNP... 90.00 Outperform
7 Aug Deutsche Bank N/A Buy
5 Aug Nomura 103.00 Buy
4 Aug Exane BNP... 90.00 Outperform
3 Aug Beaufort... N/A Hold
3 Aug Barclays... 105.00 Overweight
3 Aug JP Morgan... 105.00 Overweight
31 Jul Investec 86.00 Hold
27 Jul Nomura N/A Buy
24 Jul Citigroup 93.00 Neutral

Perhaps another holdings announcement due tomorrow?

78p hit.........slip sliding away!

HMG < 13%

Blimey! 73p.......

Can't believe the price but I reckon the upside on RBS is even better

Investec note today:
"We have no intention of joining the growing ranks of the Lloyds “100 club” – analysts with a target price of 100p or more for Lloyds’ shares, which is a level not seen since 2008. Indeed, we would have expected those forecasts which de facto track company guidance to be cut to reflect new guidance for a medium term effective tax rate of 30%, which appears to assume ongoing conduct charges in perpetuity? Be that as it may, although Lloyds is not our top pick, a 17.5% 15 week correction in itself triggers an upgrade to BUY.
Lloyds’ Q2 2015 results beat consensus by 13% at the underlying PBT level with a £41m (1%) “beat” in revenues and an extraordinary 93% (£275m) impairment outperformance.
One “negative surprise” was the scale of the £1.4bn PPI charge, albeit we think that Lloyds may, in part, have chosen to “go large” in order to optimise its usage of the final window for tax relief against provisions for redress payments.
Within the Q2 2015 numbers, we note that the residual unwind on the Enhanced Capital Notes has reduced to £256m; so although there was market disappointment at Lloyds’ 4% QoQ decline in tNAV to 53.5p, this did (in part) reflect a c.£300m hit which we had previously expected to land in H2 2015e.
We think that Lloyds continues to prioritise “margin preservation” over delivery of targeted balance sheet growth, but to be fair, the strategy has so far paid off. Tactical brands offer further scope for liability repricing while we think Lloyds’ candid acknowledgement of limited NIM benefit from initial interest rate moves anticipates a vulnerability to increased mortgage back-book churn.
We simply do not believe the 30% effective tax rate guidance. We ignore it.
Finally, we welcome yesterday’s announcement of a reduction in the Government’s stake to 12.97%. With the share price now below 73.6p, we think that UKFI’s trading programme is “suspended”, which may offer a degree of technical support.
We upgrade from Hold to Buy. 86p RoE-g/CoE-g derived TP is unchanged."

Why Lloyds may be worth 50% more

Lloyds Banking exec reassures City big-hitter

Talk of a possible time limit on PPI claims....DeuscheBank comment:
It is difficult to predict the outcome: there have been lobbying efforts from the industry for a time-bar in the past, but it was not adopted. The article also says the FCA is unlikely to announce a decision immediately today’s board meeting but consult on its final proposals. Meanwhile banks are also awaiting guidance from FCA on the implications of the Plevin case, originally due ‘in the summer’. Either way, we expect further newsflow on PPI in the coming weeks.
A time-bar would be most beneficial for Lloyds.
If there was a time-bar introduced of, say, end-2016, we think this would be taken well by the market as it should give greater clarity and finality over PPI costs, which have been a drag on UK bank earnings and capital generation over the past 4 years. A time-bar would also end the costly process of dealing with false PPI claims. Overall a time-bar would be most beneficial to Lloyds, and to a lesser extent Barclays & RBS. Our current forecasts assume a further £1.5bn of PPI charges in 2015-16 for Lloyds. Each additional £1bn charge = 1.4p off TNAV / 44bps off CET1 capital (as of July there is no tax shield). July the lowest month of payouts since August 2014."

Reuters - Britain's government said on Friday it had recouped almost three-quarters of the taxpayer cash used in the 20.5 billion pound rescue of Lloyds Banking Group in 2008, after a fresh share sale pushed its stake to below 12 percent.

UK Financial Investments, which manages the government's stakes in Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland, has reduced its holding in Lloyds to 11.98 percent, taking the total sum raised to 15 billion pounds ($22.84 billion) and bringing the bank closer to a target of full privatisation in 2016.

The proceeds from the latest share sale will be used to pay down public debt, HM Treasury said in a statement.

Lloyds needed to tap 20.5 billion pounds from the public purse to avert collapse at the peak of the financial crisis, which left the government with a 43 percent stake.

The finance ministry began selling off its stake in September 2013.

UKFI has sold almost 13 percent of the bank since appointing Morgan Stanley in December to execute a trading plan that seeks to sell the the government's shares daily on the stock market.

Seems to be back in favour again, partly due to the time limit set on the PPI liability. My target 80p. Suspect 200 DMA may prove to be too much.