78p hit.........slip sliding away!

HMG < 13%

Blimey! 73p.......

Can't believe the price but I reckon the upside on RBS is even better

Investec note today:
"We have no intention of joining the growing ranks of the Lloyds “100 club” – analysts with a target price of 100p or more for Lloyds’ shares, which is a level not seen since 2008. Indeed, we would have expected those forecasts which de facto track company guidance to be cut to reflect new guidance for a medium term effective tax rate of 30%, which appears to assume ongoing conduct charges in perpetuity? Be that as it may, although Lloyds is not our top pick, a 17.5% 15 week correction in itself triggers an upgrade to BUY.
Lloyds’ Q2 2015 results beat consensus by 13% at the underlying PBT level with a £41m (1%) “beat” in revenues and an extraordinary 93% (£275m) impairment outperformance.
One “negative surprise” was the scale of the £1.4bn PPI charge, albeit we think that Lloyds may, in part, have chosen to “go large” in order to optimise its usage of the final window for tax relief against provisions for redress payments.
Within the Q2 2015 numbers, we note that the residual unwind on the Enhanced Capital Notes has reduced to £256m; so although there was market disappointment at Lloyds’ 4% QoQ decline in tNAV to 53.5p, this did (in part) reflect a c.£300m hit which we had previously expected to land in H2 2015e.
We think that Lloyds continues to prioritise “margin preservation” over delivery of targeted balance sheet growth, but to be fair, the strategy has so far paid off. Tactical brands offer further scope for liability repricing while we think Lloyds’ candid acknowledgement of limited NIM benefit from initial interest rate moves anticipates a vulnerability to increased mortgage back-book churn.
We simply do not believe the 30% effective tax rate guidance. We ignore it.
Finally, we welcome yesterday’s announcement of a reduction in the Government’s stake to 12.97%. With the share price now below 73.6p, we think that UKFI’s trading programme is “suspended”, which may offer a degree of technical support.
We upgrade from Hold to Buy. 86p RoE-g/CoE-g derived TP is unchanged."

Why Lloyds may be worth 50% more

Lloyds Banking exec reassures City big-hitter

Talk of a possible time limit on PPI claims....DeuscheBank comment:
It is difficult to predict the outcome: there have been lobbying efforts from the industry for a time-bar in the past, but it was not adopted. The article also says the FCA is unlikely to announce a decision immediately today’s board meeting but consult on its final proposals. Meanwhile banks are also awaiting guidance from FCA on the implications of the Plevin case, originally due ‘in the summer’. Either way, we expect further newsflow on PPI in the coming weeks.
A time-bar would be most beneficial for Lloyds.
If there was a time-bar introduced of, say, end-2016, we think this would be taken well by the market as it should give greater clarity and finality over PPI costs, which have been a drag on UK bank earnings and capital generation over the past 4 years. A time-bar would also end the costly process of dealing with false PPI claims. Overall a time-bar would be most beneficial to Lloyds, and to a lesser extent Barclays & RBS. Our current forecasts assume a further £1.5bn of PPI charges in 2015-16 for Lloyds. Each additional £1bn charge = 1.4p off TNAV / 44bps off CET1 capital (as of July there is no tax shield). July the lowest month of payouts since August 2014."

Reuters - Britain's government said on Friday it had recouped almost three-quarters of the taxpayer cash used in the 20.5 billion pound rescue of Lloyds Banking Group in 2008, after a fresh share sale pushed its stake to below 12 percent.

UK Financial Investments, which manages the government's stakes in Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland, has reduced its holding in Lloyds to 11.98 percent, taking the total sum raised to 15 billion pounds ($22.84 billion) and bringing the bank closer to a target of full privatisation in 2016.

The proceeds from the latest share sale will be used to pay down public debt, HM Treasury said in a statement.

Lloyds needed to tap 20.5 billion pounds from the public purse to avert collapse at the peak of the financial crisis, which left the government with a 43 percent stake.

The finance ministry began selling off its stake in September 2013.

UKFI has sold almost 13 percent of the bank since appointing Morgan Stanley in December to execute a trading plan that seeks to sell the the government's shares daily on the stock market.

Seems to be back in favour again, partly due to the time limit set on the PPI liability. My target 80p. Suspect 200 DMA may prove to be too much.

Lloyds shares go on sale to public

UK chancellor to announce £2bn worth of Lloyds Bank shares to go on sale to the public today

Lloyds Q3 results: tips and estimates

Q3 statement tomorrow......07.00 hrs

Speakers on!

The results are going to have quite an impact on the sp tomorrow, imo. The TA guys on IG are saying the trading range is anything from 70p to 82p. I am expecting the results to be 'in-line', which should encourage divi hunters that 2016 might be a good year for LLOY. Am a seller at c81p....will wait for profit takers to bump the sp back to c74p....then will buy back in. That's the plan anyway!

They are one of my biggest holdings and I'm about 45% up on the total holding.

I'm hoping longer term that they will become a significant element of my SIPP.

I also have a largish S/B on from just shy of 76p and hoping for a short term turn.

I am trading them profitably at the moment but will start to stockpile when I think there is a likelihood of a decent divi.

I'm less hopeful on RBS on Friday, but IAG could be interesting if you don't hold/trade!

Interim Management Statement

Improvement in profitability and returns
· Underlying profit of £6,355 million, an increase of 6 per cent on the first nine months of 2014
· Total income flat at £13,205 million1
- Net interest income of £8,578 million, up 4 per cent, driven by margin improvement to 2.63 per cent
- Other income 7 per cent lower at £4,627 million
· Operating costs down 1 per cent despite additional investment and Simplification costs; cost:income ratio improved to 48.0 per cent
· Impairment charge down 64 per cent to £336 million; asset quality ratio improved 15 basis points to 0.11 per cent
· Underlying return on required equity of 15.7 per cent, up 1.7 percentage points on the first nine months of 2014
· Other income weaker in the third quarter partly offset by lower costs and impairments
· Statutory profit before tax up 33 per cent to £2,151 million (2014: £1,614 million). PPI provision of £500 million in the third quarter primarily reflects sensitivity run-rate previously disclosed at the half year
· Statutory return on required equity of 4.4 per cent, up 0.5 percentage points on the first nine months of 2014

Balance sheet further strengthened
· Strong balance sheet and liquidity position
- Common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13.7 per cent (31 Dec 2014: 12.8 per cent, 30 June 2015: 13.3 per cent)
- Total capital ratio of 22.2 per cent (31 Dec 2014: 22.0 per cent, 30 June 2015: 21.7 per cent)
- Leverage ratio of 5.0 per cent (31 Dec 2014: 4.9 per cent, 30 June 2015: 4.9 per cent)
· Tangible net assets per share of 55.0 pence (31 Dec 2014: 54.9 pence, 30 June 2015: 53.5 pence)

Our differentiated UK focused business model continues to deliver
· Delivering growth in targeted areas, gaining market share in SME and Consumer Finance and meeting our Helping Britain Prosper Plan commitments by supporting first-time buyers and business start-ups
· Cost discipline and low risk business model providing competitive advantage
· UK government stake reduced to less than 11 per cent (as at 9 October 2015)

Guidance for 2015 updated
· Net interest margin for the full year now expected to be in line with year-to-date performance (2.63 per cent)
· Asset quality ratio now expected to be lower than 15 basis points for the full year
· Other income expected to recover in the fourth quarter but full year now expected to be slightly below 2014
· Remaining guidance unchanged

Outlook
· The robust UK economy and our differentiated business model underpin our continued confidence in generating strong and sustainable returns.

1 Total income, operating costs and impairment exclude TSB.

Lloyds hit by further charge for insurance mis-selling