Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

Well I got out of my latest tranche at almost the same price but with the share price a fair way below 200 dma, I'm topping up again shortly. Overdone with the drilling programme scheduled and the increase in production. And I suspect it's all just a correction. I stick with Goldman and oil at $200 in the coming 2/3 years.

hope your right Greyhound.

So do I, but you have to make your own decision!

Comments on the Motley Fool disc board worth a read. A bit technical, but add a better insight.

Cant get any lower can it..

everything can always half! ;)
does seem crazy when you look at the fundamentals

Now I'm getting very tempted to double up

Might be worth waiting for FED interest rate decision today.
$ getting stronger & Oil price weakening.

Too late ;).
My view is that the Fed isn't doing anything for a while.

(just listening to Bloomberg tv, probability of fed hikes now coming later rather than sooner)

The Naked Trader said on Friday that these were cheap.. they are now.

down 100p.

What price oil next week? Maybe Goldman are playing a clever game or will they end up squirming?

Not over the long term. Oil prices have generally exceeded price expectations by about some 30% (I was reading).

A rather obscure but canny little hedge I have against Dana, is long term holder of Asos, (ASC). Been working nicely over time.

I'm adding at these levels.

Interesting that banks have come off their highs today rather more than they have done intra day over the past couple of weeks. PMO is also showing signs of life.

Is this the turn around from banks back to miners/oilers?

I was thinking that too dealer could it be the Banks have run out of steam and oils will benefit.

Freddie Mac numbers disappoint

Making a come back I'm fully invested in Dana and Vpc.

Interesting.

Why has PMO gone up and not DNX?

Bought back in today at 1233 after being stopped out at 1380, see if the 12 offers any more support

Yeah, I chose to buy today at 12.52. There's a lot of support at 12 pounds so I'll give the chartists the benefit of the doubt. I kept money back in case it drops more, when it will become more of a bargain. But I hope and think 12 should offer a floor to the price. Interestingly, the retreat in the oil price means shares have risen today, including nonsensically oil shares. duh! sentiment. When oil drops people get so excited that markets will rebound, well dana's been benefiting from the high oil price. Sentiment makes fools of us all. now dana's dropped back to the price of last november, when it had not had 8 months exposure to the high oil price, and more significantly hadn't had a find which added 25% to its reserves and therefore value. I wonder if it fell partly because there was simply no meaningful support from 19 to 12. But this example shows how hollow technicalanalysis is because that jump was for a reason, something new which justified an overnight rerating. Have faith investors. It might not go up tomorrow but it will sometime.

We held dana for 2.5 years, buying at 12 it then fell to 8 a couple of times in the intervening years. We just forgot about it. Then it started jumping from 10, 12 - 14 on the charts, we nearly sold out at 14, the height on the charts for a meagre 10% chart. Fortunatley, we held off and then it jumped on its find, we didint sell, and still hold this , which is annoying, but cest la vie. There was a reason we didnt sell at 19, and that it that it is fundamentally cheap with lots of potential new finds.

Is there a better share out there at a better price than Dana? Maybe Billiton or AQP but in those cases the commodity price has dropped significantly.

Ilike Cairn Energy as well. It's good because the longer they take to get their oil out the more the price of their substantial assets rises. Theyjust have to sit on it.