rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

didn't say that ..... the above is the target provided 5130 and, i think, 10090 respectively are not broken with impetus .... and of course any move in either direction will not be straight line .... rather like that political answer!

As long as we have another good day tomorrow, i'd be quite happpy.

interesting one to call with fed raising rates by 0.25% and gold suddenly back to 1108 .... prob good on balance

copper in demand, VED should come good now. Another on rio would be a nice profit for the week to bank.

Don' you just love it when crude rises......I have a smile on my face at the pumps...a rare happy motorist !.

retailers hold key for stocks
Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:21am
By Ellis Mnyandu

NEW YORK, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Wall Street could keep rallying after notching its best week this year if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gives a reassuring assessment of the recovery and retail earnings show improvement.

Investors are eager to hear more on the thinking behind the Fed's surprise move to raise its discount rate, especially because the Fed's loose monetary policy has provided a crucial spur to equities' advance since their March 2009 bottom.

While the rate rise suggested that the Fed now considers the financial sector to have healed sufficiently to warrant taking back extraordinary liquidity, the increase also sparked unease about a possible broader removal of economic stimuli.

Bernanke's semiannual testimony on monetary policy before congressional panels this week takes on an even more important dimension as investors look for clarity on the Fed's intentions and how Bernanke sees the recovery progressing.

"We will be watching for more confirmation of which track the Fed is on," said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC in Newark, New Jersey. "We will be looking for more color on the timing of the (exit strategy)."

The Fed has said its benchmark fed funds rate would remain exceptionally low for an extended period to sustain the recovery, but there has been little light on the timeline of its exit strategy and what risks might that entail, more so with a high U.S. unemployment rate still a big menace.

"Is (the rate increase) a reflection of its confidence in the stabilization of markets and the economic recovery, or are they very worried about inflation and therefore are hiking rates?" Praveen added.

RETAILERS IN THE BULL'S-EYE

Earnings from major retailers, including Home Depot Inc (HD.N), Target Corp (TGT.N) and Macy's Inc (M.N) will also be in the spotlight, along with key economic data, including February consumer sentiment and January new home sales. For the full economic diary, see [ECI/US]

Luxury home builder Toll Brothers (TOL.N), gold miner Newmont Mining Corp (NEM.N) and grocer Safeway Inc (SWY.N) are on the earnings scoreboard. For the full earnings diary, see [RESF/US]

With consumer spending accounting for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, any indication that consumers are again spending should go a long way in reassuring investors about the outlook for profits and add to the prevailing optimism that has underpinned the stock market's rebound from the recent sell-off .

Of the 422 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings as of Friday, 72 percent have beaten analyst expectations, 10 percent have matched estimates and 18 pct have missed estimates, according to Thomson Reuters data.

That is well above the 61 percent that have beaten estimates in a typical quarter since Thomson Reuters began tracking data in 1994.

BIG BOUNCE

Optimism about the recovery has helped the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX trim its losses since its Jan. 19 peak to 3.6 percent decline through Friday. The index fell as much as 8 percent through Feb. 8.

Investors have been scouring for beaten-down shares in growth-oriented stocks such as commodities, technology and consumer discretionary sectors in the market's latest rebound, helping the S&P 500 score its biggest weekly advance since November last week.

For last week, the S&P 500 rose 3.1 percent, the Nasdaq .IXIC gained 2.8 percent and Dow Jones industrial average .DJI climbed 3 percent.

"The reason stocks begin to work from here is that the data that came out of the fourth quarter was generally positive, visibility is improving and now we are starting to see that delinquencies are stabilizing," said Thomas Lee, chief U.S. equity strategist at J.P. Morgan in New York.

"The macro trends are all moving in the right direction."

Bernanke is scheduled to testify before the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the next day he is due to testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee.

In addition to Bernanke's comments, the direction of the stock market could turn on how much progress the European Union makes in its efforts to allay investors' fears about Greece's fiscal deficit problems and concerns about the stability of the euro.

boy says stay neutral on both dow and ftse

Broker note out this morning:
"UBS SEES S&P 500 FALLING TO 1,086; 2% BELOW YESTERDAY'S CLOSE
*UBS SAYS EQUITIES 'SHORT-TERM OVERBOUGHT', `PULL BACK LIKELY'
*UBS SAYS EUROPEAN STOCKS WON'T EXTEND RALLY `WITHOUT BREATHER' "

Why did I cancel my short UKX order this morning at 5390?

:O(

dunno, it's all looked a bit overpriced to me for a while K!

I must be losing my touch.

Maybe a dose of reality setting in now, and realisation that a double dip is a distinct possibility.
2517

all things are possible,but most unlikely.

'We pays our money and takes our chance'
2517

i have a feeling in my bones that we may see dow -150 or more tonight, though i'm not marrying money to mouth on that point

US new home sales are dire, but market looks to be pretty much ignoring same, presumably on basis that US interest rates (prime rate) will stay low for the time being

One of the guests on CNBC this morning Ogberg? or similar, thought the 1st rise would be in July.
2517

cynic are you watching the dow?

yes, but then i always have that screen on ..... ditto gold and cash nymex

First-time weekly jobless claims surge to 496,000 and have increased by more than 10% in the past two weeks, U.S. says.