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Phosphorus - its role and nature
Phosphorus (chemical symbol P) is an element necessary for life. Because phosphorus is highly reactive, it does not naturally occur
as a free element, but is instead bound up in phosphates. Phosphates typically occur in inorganic rocks.
As farmers and gardeners know, phosphorus is one of the three major nutrients required for plant growth: nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K).
Fertilizers are labelled for the amount of N-P-K they contain.
Most phosphorus is obtained from mining phosphate rock. Crude phosphate is now used in organic farming, whereas chemically treated forms such
as superphosphate, triple superphosphate, or ammonium phosphates are used in non-organic farming.
The current major use of phosphate is in fertilizers. Growing crops remove it and other nutrients from the soil... Most of the world's farms do not have or
do not receive adequate amounts of phosphate. Feeding the world's increasing population will accelerate the rate of depletion of phosphate reserves.
and...
resources are limited, and phosphate is being dissipated. Future generations ultimately will face problems in obtaining enough to exist.
It is sobering to note that phosphorus is often a limiting nutrient in natural ecosystems. That is, the supply of available phosphorus limits the
size of the population possible in those ecosystems.
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Russia is moving closer to creating a new national fertilizer champion, with Suleiman Kerimovs Uralkali and Silvinit, Russian potash producer, expected to merge in the near future.
Yahoo StumbleUpon Google Live Technorati del.icio.us Digg Reddit Mixx Propeller Russias government is keen to support the fertilizer sector, as it provides the country's third biggest source of export revenues. The prime movers in the consolidation of the sector are billionaire Suleiman Kerimov and his associates, with the Russian metals tycoon having bought a controlling stake in agro-chemicals giant Uralkali.
Now two offshore firms, that are believed to be close to Kerimov, have bought 44% of Silvinit, the country's largest potash producer. This will be most likely added to those 25% in Silvinit Kerimov already owns.
The third piece of the puzzle will be when Uralkali launches a take-over bid for the unlisted Silvinit, which is expected to happen in the coming days. It would create the world's second biggest potash producer, but Dmitry Baranov, an analyst from Finam, believes the Russian anti-monopoly service will allow the deal with certain provisions.
The Federal antimonpoly service will issue detailed instructions concerning a deal to merge Silvinit and Uralkali. Even if a structure with offshore companies is used. There will be strict limits for domestic pricing, with exports accounting for 80-90% of the companies profits.
Agro chemicals are the third biggest export item for Russia after fuel and metals, and the government is keen to encourage its growth. The merged company of Uralkali and Silvinit would hold 30% of global potash reserves and 40% of global exports.
To justify its size, the new company would have to grow both domestically and internationally, with Anna Kupriyanova, a senior analyst at Uralsib Capital, adding that the new market giant will reshape the market itself and also change some regulations in it.
As of today, the share of domestically consumed fertilizer in Russia is 10 % of what is produced in Russia. So, I expect this share will increase to 15-20% within 5-10 years. Obviously, the state will control these prices, and they have always had a huge discount to export prices, but I dont think this will be too negative for fertilizer producers. The export policy will be completely different.
The merger of Silvinit and Uralkali could be just the beginning of consolidation in the fertilizer sector. Recent history in Russia shows, as was the case with energy, that it takes time for a sector to take on a stable form, with the government playing an active role not just in its creation, but also in its operation through influencing domestic prices and export duties.
Potash Bid Narrows Focus On Fertilizer Makers' Market Heft
Today : Tuesday 17 August 2010
The bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. is focusing attention on an obscure corner of the fertilizer market that holds the key to global food output growth.
Potash itself is a potassium-rich salt that serves as the food, along with nitrogen and phosphates, for wheat, corn and other crops. Crop producers need to use it in specific amounts to glean the biggest possible yields.
"There is no substitute for it," said Stephen Jasinski, the mineral commodity specialist for the U.S. Geological Survey.Supplies of potash--the remnants of ancient seas that are mined by fertilizer makers--are of growing importance to developing nations like China and India, which put a high priority on food security for their large populations.
While the fertilizer is widely used, two regions account for 80% of reserves and two-thirds of production: Canada and the former Soviet Union.
There's little active trade in the commodity. Contracts for potash deliveries aren't listed on an exchange and there isn't a big community of "spot" traders that could provide it on short notice.
Benchmark prices are set by a consortium of Canadian potash producers called Canpotex. Potash prices at the port of Vancouver hit a high of $900 a metric ton in 2008 but then plunged during the global recession.
As the commodity is available from only a few suppliers, they maintain a significant amount of pricing power. But farmers can suspend their use of potash if prices are too high in the hope that prices fall before the lower potassium level reduces crop yields.
Canpotex sells 8 million-9 million metric tons of potash a year, according to its website. In 2008, world potash production totaled 32 million metric tons, according to the International Fertilizer Association, an industry group.
Meanwhile, only 12 countries have the potential for significant production, resulting in a massive export market.
"The theory here is that demand for all three nutrients should increase over time, but there is a potential for potash, particularly in the two largest countries, China and India, to grow even faster," said Harry Vroomen, an economist with The Fertilizer Institute, an industry trade group.
Throughout human history, farmers supplied crops with potassium by scattering ash or using animal waste, but only potash provides enough of the nutrient on a large enough scale to support the global food industry.
That's the main reason for the interest of mining giants in acquiring reserves. On Tuesday, Potash rejected Bhp Billiton's unsolicited $38.56 billion takeover bid and adopted a shareholder rights plan to prevent an unwanted acquisition.
Vroomen said the ratio of potash to nitrogen and phosphates in developed countries such as the U.S. is much higher than in developing regions. China and India in particular, which account for more than a third of the world's population, use a significantly lower amount of potash relative to other nutrients, and are now looking to increase their use as they run into plateauing crop yields.
BHP's interest in Potash Corp. comes amid a push to consolidate the fertilizer industry to take advantage of growing demand for wheat. Monday, Agrium Inc. (AGU), Canada's second-biggest fertilizer producer behind Potash Corp., made an unsolicited bid for Australian wheat exporter AWB Ltd. (AWB.AU), as it seeks to make Australia its launch pad to service the growing Asian markets.