The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

By Glenn Kessler
The Washington Post

WASHINGTON Secretary of State Colin Powell emphatically said yesterday that if the incoming Iraqi interim government ordered the departure of foreign troops after June 30, they would pack up without protest, but emphasized he doubted such a request would be made.

Powell said the United States believes a U.N. resolution passed last year and Iraqi administrative law provide necessary authority for coalition forces currently numbering about 170,000 to remain even beyond the scheduled June 30 handover of limited sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government.

"We're there to support the Iraqi people and protect them and the new government," Powell said at a news conference with other foreign ministers from the Group of Eight nations. "I have no doubt the new government will welcome our presence and am losing no sleep over whether they will ask us to stay."

But were the new government to say it could handle security, "then we would leave," Powell said.

Powell said he was "not ducking the hypothetical, which I usually do," to avoid confusion on the extent of the new government's authority.

His statement, which was echoed by L. Paul Bremer, the U.S. civilian administrator in Iraq, and the foreign ministers of Britain, Italy and Japan, came one day after conflicting testimony by administration officials on the issue.

Testifying before the House International Relations Committee on Thursday, Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman appeared to say the interim government could order the departure of foreign troops, only to be contradicted by Lt. Gen. Walter Sharp, Joint Chief of Staffs director for strategic plans and policy, who asserted that only an elected government could do so. Iraqi elections are scheduled for January.

The new government's ability to assert its authority after the occupation authority dissolves has been a central question in the international consultations over the shape of the incoming government, with the United States under pressure to transfer as much political power as possible to the Iraqi people.

"The Iraqi government has to be in a position to govern, and that's why I mean that it has to be a break with the past," French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier said. In Baghdad, Bremer told a delegation from Iraq's Diyala province that American forces would not stay where they were unwelcome.

"If the provisional government asks us to leave, we will leave," Bremer said, referring to an Iraqi administration due to take power June 30. "I don't think that will happen, but obviously we don't stay in countries where we're not welcome."

White House spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters the Iraqi people still want help from the United States and coalition forces to provide security.

"Iraqi security forces are not fully equipped and trained to provide for their own security and defend their country against terrorists," McClellan said. "And so, after the transfer of sovereignty on June 30, we expect to continue to partner with the Iraqi forces to improve the security situation."

French, Russian and Italian officials pressed yesterday for the new Iraqi government to be given the authority to halt military actions by U.S. forces.

Powell rejected that, saying the forces will remain under the command of an American who "has to be free to take whatever decisions he believes are appropriate to accomplish his mission."

But Foreign Minister Franco Frattini of Italy, a strong supporter of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, disagreed. "If we imagine a unilateral decision by coalition forces after June 30, without listening to the Iraqi people or without giving them the power to say no, there won't be a transfer of power," Frattini told reporters.

"And, in fact, what we want is that there is such power for the Iraqi people."

Material from The Associated Press is included in this report.

oops just heard that a security minister has been killed in a car bomb in Iraqi, perhaps time to get for a while until things settle

tokyo sounds like you'r doing a bit of de-ramping you after cheep shares. or is it to hot for you

I'm afraid I'm out of this one for now Yes just a little too hot for me), caught the report on CNN this morning, and sold just before the big drop , although surprised and happy to see it pull back so quickly. It's probably gonna be my loss on this one, but I wanna stick my cash somewhere a little more stable for the time being.

Good luck to all those who held on, I hope you all get the rewards you wanted.

Tokyo

Just thought you folks would like to know that Fleet Street was flogging this tip for about 450 plus other golden tips as well. Paid them the fee only for them to tell me 4 days or so later that this share was not such a good buy after all....they did refund my fee. Clearly not impressed....and William Rees Mogg...I do have the evidence in case you think otherwise.

drinkgood...can you refer to their quote...eg what were their exact words. I would appreciate knowing

I note Sunday Times gives PET a bit of a write up today.
My view (which is not expert I might add), is as follows

1...they are the only listed oil company on USA and London Stock Exchanges that are still in Iraq
2..they have been relatonship building for about 8 years with the Iraqi powers and also providing work for Iraqi people
3..they have 3 bids on table and await response in June/July
4..the chief exec at a recent conference in States said 'we have a 33% chance of getting all three'...(me...well I would settle for one!!)
5..they are a neutral company ( Irish) which helps their position
6...even if they do not win the any business then the major oils would obviously want to buy in to them as they have very good contacts

in summary a very risky punt that could bring a hefty loss or a hefty profit...if you like these risks, then they are for you...if you dont like risks then you have to keep out...rgds...p b

I bought back a few shares on Friday with cash that I can afford to lose, as I couldn't stand to be out of it if something huge really happened, looks like major contracts are a little way away, atleast until July time, but speculation on who will win the contract will probably push these up near 75 pence. Only 4 companies bid for the contract and all of them small, hopefully the points made above by piston broke, will all work in Petrel's favour to gain the all important contract.



Interesting article below, enjoy. What do you make of the fact that they have already brought other companies aboard to help them?


May 23, 2004

Irish oil minnow tenders for lucrative Iraqi deals



PETREL Resources, a small listed Irish oil exploration company, is one of only four firms to have submitted tenders to design and operate two large oil fields in northern Iraq but David Horgan, its managing director, has been advised not to return there until the security situation improves, writes Ciaran Hancock.

Petrel, which is quoted on the Alternative Investment Market in London and has a market value of 21m (31.29m) has brought subsidiaries of General Electric and Halliburton on board to provide equipment and design skills.The winning tender is expected to be announced by the Iraqi Ministry of Oil in about two months.

Horgan returned from Iraq earlier this month and said ministry officials had advised that he shouldnt return for the time being. Its now not recommended to go into the field. Foreigners are being targeted there and being Irish is no guarantee that you wont be shot.

Petrel has submitted tenders for fields at Khurmala, part of the Kirkuk oil field, one of the biggest in the world. It has also tendered for Hamrin, north of Baghdad. Khurmala has reserves of 2 billion barrels and is expected to produce 120,000 barrels a day at full production. Hamrin, meanwhile, has reserves of 1 billion barrels and is expected to produce 100,000 barrels a day at full tilt.

Horgan said it could be up to three years before either field reached full production.

Three other oil minnows are believed to have tendered for the contracts but no oil majors have lodged bids.

The tendering process was delayed several times by the deteriorating security situation. The oil ministry was also looted after the fall of Saddam Hussein and a number of maps and other key documents were destroyed.

Petrel has been scouting for opportunities in Iraq for a number of years and Horgan estimates the company has invested about 3m to date.

Horgan acknowledged that a number of hurdles remain. One is security, which is now the chief concern of foreign companies. America is also due to hand over power to a local administration by the end of June, after which the new government could decide to scupper the tendering process and start again.

This seems unlikely though. Theyre very serious about this and want to get the process moving as soon as possible.

Oil production in Iraq has collapsed since the start of the second Gulf war. The country is now estimated to produce about 1m barrels a day for export, down from 3.5m in 1990. Oil production has collapsed and the industry has undergone a tough period, said Horgan.

Hi Tokyo...was the above the Sunday Times article...or from somewhere else...rgds..pb

Piston Broke - It was from the Sunday Times, what do you make of it?

On one hand it says get out until the end of June - No decision until then, so perhaps a drop in share price, but only 4 small oil companies put in tenders, so even without Petrels advantages they have a 25% change of winning - I'm starting to believe they could atleast win one.

Good luck to all

check out sonoran energy,they recently put in tenders for these contracts after buying another company from the region.fairly sharp fall today,but i`m still keeping mine
dexter

As the outlook seems so good, ie even if they don't get a contract (and I can't see that after the work they have done), they still have the results of all the work mapping etc, any other company doesn't want to repeat the time consuming work already done, so I am holding on with money I can afford (not want) to lose, I know it is risky so I only bought 1250 shares but if it pays off I will be ok and if it crashes I will hold in case they come back up. Not the best strategy I know, but that would be a "high" interest account!

Chris

I agree that the outlook is possibly very bright, but my experience is the Stock Markets do not like uncertainty...Having read the Times article, I took the call today to get out at 35p and took only 100 profit, but my view is that they will now fall before starting a recovery in about a month...I may lose shedloads by getting out but uncertainty causes shares to fall even more so than bad news. I am not in anyway saying I know it all, but my plan is to buy in again in about a month when I fel they may be 25p ish...be lucky all you Pets

after contacting petrel about the situation in iraq,i recieved this reply;
we are pushing on with our work without interruption-but without going into the field(on the advice of the ministry).
our geological sampling team is now with the jordanian NRA on the jordanian side of the border,taking samples from the field as well as cores.
our engineering team is finalising the third tender.we have world class partners(GE,haliburton&caterpillar groups.
i think this sounds quite positive,what does anyone else think?

dexter.

If their taking cores (from this I assume reserviour cores via a drill rig) their serious about the work in Iraq as it's not cheap.

Additionally if they are indeed drilling on the Jordonian side and the reserviors are connected I would suggest they can suck from that side and square up some sort of profit share with the Jordanians??

PET - Bounced 21% in 4 days, buyers back in for the ride up to 4!!;

Lets hope PET hit 4, lots of buyers coming back and PRM starting to come back as well, bought at 121p a while ago.
Chris

hi all,
don`t know if you`ve read it ,but an article on
www.lemminginvester.com/petrelresources makes interesting reading .
let me know what you think.
dexter

Hi Dexter

I've a bit invested in these but I can't get on this page - are you sure this is the correct web address? You couldn't paste article in here please?

Regards

gildph

Hi Dexter,
I also have a bit in here but am unable to get this page up, go on, give us an idea, (tic) good or bad?
Chris

I got onto it by searching for lemminginvetor on google (http:)
http://www.lemminginvestor.com/PetrelResources.html

Article is 27th 2004 so maybe a bit dated now. The risks are highlighted but what makes theM a firm hold for me is the key advantges we have even if we don't get any of the contracts, in particular

- the data we've accumulated and the relationship bulit up with the IRaq Oil administration which will be invaluable to whoever gets the contracts, especially the big boys

Also note a private investor Douglas Wright (c2% of company), whom I believe is an actuary, estimates the stock to be around 10.....

Draw your own conclusions and as always DYOR