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How to profit from Betting Exchanges (BEX)     

Scripophilist - 27 Oct 2004 23:40


ladder.gifBA_Logo.gif


How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

Click here to learn more


Harlosh - 07 Jan 2005 16:20 - 491 of 10502

Just greened up on Mercedes golf championship.
Only small stakes just to get the feel but worked out really well.
I backed two players, one whose odds shortened, the other lengthened.

When I laid the loser it added the stake to the current winnings on the former. I then greened up.

Very weird how it works but I'm not complaining. The more I see of this the more I am amazed.

Scripophilist - 07 Jan 2005 16:41 - 492 of 10502

Just uploaded this:-

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics/minimum_stake.htm

For people who are experimenting on Betfair. It will let you place a bet for less than the minimum amount. This means you can throw away your pennies testing strategies or just getting used to the markets.

Scripophilist - 07 Jan 2005 16:42 - 493 of 10502

"Just greened up on Mercedes golf championship"

Golf is a goodie but usually liquidty is only high during the main season. Good volume on darts at the moment.

Scripophilist - 07 Jan 2005 16:42 - 494 of 10502

FA CUP starts this weekend. A great tournament to get on!!

Scripophilist - 08 Jan 2005 14:13 - 495 of 10502

Brilliant result in the Sheff Utd - Villa match! Ideal scenario!

Harlosh - 08 Jan 2005 14:34 - 496 of 10502

Scrip,
Wasn't sure about this match, how did you play it?

Scripophilist - 08 Jan 2005 14:43 - 497 of 10502

Looking for a late match leader preferably the home team then start from there to take some money out of the market. Wasn't going to try and predict the result at all or position take before the match started. Fortunate that there were two goals very quickly.

Scripophilist - 08 Jan 2005 14:46 - 498 of 10502

Just scanning some of the other matches but need to look after the kids this afternoon so that's probably it for today.

The FA CUP is more difficult to make money on as the scenario is different. When you are about to get knocked out of the competition you have nothing to lose by pushing forward. So be careful on knockout matches the probabilities are different. Also the trend in recent years is for wholesale team changes by the big teams so difficult to really get any handle on the performance.

Try and pick matches where you have some ability to judge the match, I.e. matches where stronger teams are playing at home with a full squad.

Scripophilist - 08 Jan 2005 16:58 - 499 of 10502

Wow, Some interesting results out there. Not that I did but you could have laid Man U with 70 and made 1000!!!

Fundamentalist - 08 Jan 2005 18:41 - 500 of 10502

Youd have to have been mad to do though scrip lol

Been out most of the day but made a few quid this evening on Newcastle rugby match and backed everton at kick off then layed at 2-0 - nice

also backed a horse 50 e/w at 14-1 - it came second, a payout but not as nice as it could have been

DocProc - 08 Jan 2005 20:48 - 501 of 10502

Don't forget that some match results might be fixed!!!!

manure.gif

Harlosh - 09 Jan 2005 14:37 - 502 of 10502

Strange offerings from Betfair on the football. Yesterday (Sat) they had two UK games in play and two foreign. Today they have one UK game and six foreign.

Why the apparent bias to foreign football? I would have thought the Arsenal v Stoke game would have been ideal yet they seem to prefer to offer other insignificant foreign games.

Backed Celtic today at odds of 3 in the second half when it was 1-1. Greened up at 2-1.

jeffmack - 09 Jan 2005 14:45 - 503 of 10502

98M

Scripophilist - 09 Jan 2005 20:59 - 504 of 10502

Harlosh, I know, I can't figure out the criteria they use. Very little of interest on offer this weekend. I know they need decent feeds to make a market in play but there were some good opportunities that they didn't offer.

Scripophilist - 09 Jan 2005 21:39 - 505 of 10502

Just noticed Villa Real and Barca was in play so nipped in for a few quid.

fade - 10 Jan 2005 09:26 - 506 of 10502

Does anyone know what the bloomberg ftse stamp was for the 09:00 intraday market? I managed to lay it at 1.03 and was confident it was under the mark, obviously not.

Scrip, I shall be signing up for the course in feb. Great thread as well guys, very interesting reading so thanks

Scripophilist - 10 Jan 2005 09:49 - 507 of 10502

Sorry fade, wasn't in the market this morning. Looking at my client software I have a price 15 secs either side of the hour and it was 4854.5 then 4853.5

Piptrader - 10 Jan 2005 09:57 - 508 of 10502

fade - according to my FutureSource feed, which so far has always agreed with Betfair/Bloomberg, the first price after 9 was 4854.50. On this occasion, that also happened to be the last price before 9.

You can get the same info from Betfair's next hourly event, because they use the settlement price of the previous hour as the new above/below price for the current hour.

Scripophilist - 10 Jan 2005 10:00 - 509 of 10502

Only four guesses so far on the total volume of matched bets in November (All markets).

Harlosh - 290m
Fundamentalist - 180m
Jeffmack - 98m
Chartist 2004 - 25m

Any more guesses? I'll give you the exact figure on Tuesday morning.

fade - 10 Jan 2005 10:07 - 510 of 10502

thanks guys

my guess would be 500m
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