Bought these the other day on results day and was certainly taken aback by their fantastic growth over the period focussing in on Asia. Ive copied a report from Killik Brokers who sum up the potential far better than I ever could.

Take note of the last Paragraph.

CROSBY CAPITAL Final Results

We highlighted Crosby Capital last year as an interesting opportunity. Its rather complex business structure makes it difficult to analyse and its introduction to the AIM market through a reverse takeover of a cash shell meant that investors have gradually got to know the story over the past twelve months. Nevertheless, it is fair to say that from a placing price of 15p, the rise to 29p suggests the action is underway.

The group is headed by two well known investment bankers including Simon Fry who was former head of Nomura in structured finance alongside Guy Hands. The company was established to house their interests in handling transactions in the Asian region and late last year, the first fruits were delivered with the injection of its oil and gas agreement with Medco which provided them with a carried interest over disposal proceeds above a $120 million benchmark (the expectation is for a sum significantly higher which will provide Lodore Resources with a useful cash injection). Crosby, having placed down 70 million Lodore shares for 10 million gross (5 million net to Crosby), retains 214 million shares worth around 32 million or around 15p per share.

Partially reflecting this disposal, Crosby has reflected part of the profit as it announces for the year to December 31, 2004, it generated a profit of $34 million on $55 million of revenue. The company states that the actual profit to be recognized on the Lodore transaction will be $82 million or 42 million. The total value of Crosby at 29p (new high up 3p) is 60 million. Simon Fry alludes to a healthy pipeline of new merchant banking opportunities coming through and hopes to conclude some this year.

For investors, it appears one is paying a modest premium over current assets for potential significant further upside. ENDS.

DYOR

Speculative punt, that could be a winner.

cheers GF.







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I read somewhere it's price is being affected by it's stake in IBDaiwa-something has gone wrong there. don't know what as I don't hold but that's the reason for you to check out.

m343bhp

They were a bit more communicative yesterday, managing a few lines which tell us little.

Crosby Capital Partners Inc
25 September 2006

CROSBY CONFIRMS IB DAIWA SHAREHOLDING UNCHANGED

REITERATES COMMITMENT TO IB DAIWA

September 25, 2006 - Crosby Capital Partners Inc. ('Crosby') notes the recent
sharp decline in the share price of IB Daiwa, and wishes to confirm that its
shareholding in IB Daiwa is unchanged from the Interim Report of June 30 2006.
Crosby currently owns 102,425,000 shares, which represents 24.02%, of IB Daiwa's
issued share capital. Furthermore, Crosby remains committed to supporting IB
Daiwa in the continued transformation of its business, and in the development
and exploitation of its reserves and portfolio of exploration prospects.

Can't work out what's going on here. The news from IB Daiwa on the gas drilling programme has been regular and pretty encouraging for the last six months, yet the company's JASDAQ listed SP for the same period looks like a ski-slope!!
Does anyone out there have any solid info on this?

It must have something to do with the big fall in the price of natural gas, (if I rembember correctly IB Daiwa is mostly in gas drilling), which has fallen over 40% the last month, from $ 7.5 to $ 4.5 today. I've watched the large canadian gas producer Paramount (pou.tx) and that company has also lost a huge part of is SP the last month (about 28%). I've read that the gas - oil price ratio is suppose to be about 1 : 6 which means that natural gas is very much undervalued at the present, the ratio has increase a lot the last month. There is a lot of natural gas on storage right now, but I thing the sharp fall is also due to some large selling by hedge funds that have been burned by the fall in the price of natural gas.

I'm trying to calculate the value influence of IB Daiwa to Crosby Capital, to see if the fall in sp of IB Daiwa and Crosby is closely correlated or if Crosby has fallen to much.

Thanks, ejvind - at least this provides us with a logical reason for what's happening. Logical I can cope with.

From the FT - 21 Sept 2006: "Crosby Capital Partners, the Asia-focused merchant bank, dropped 16.7 per cent to 49p on rumours it may be about to take a write-down on the value of Japan-listed IB Daiwa, in which it has a 24 per cent stake. IB Daiwa has an interest in a gas development in Louisiana."

FWIW, a little thinking out loud:

Currently CSB's stake in IB Daiwa is worth JPY 77 per IB Daiwa share, or 35p per share, or 35.7 mil approx.

However at 12th Jan 2006, ID Daiwa was trading at 292 yen. At the end of June 2006, the price of IBD shares was still just above 200 Yen;the chart is not very clear, but the price looks to be around 220 Yen (100p), implying a decline of 65% or loss of value to CSB of 66.3 million. This is about 50% of the reported value of Total equity and liabilities of US$254.5 million.

Spread the loss of value of 66.3 mil over the shares in issue (243 million) and that's a loss of 27p per share. The SP has dropped more than this since the end of June; where it will end up is anyone's guess, and that applies to IBD's share price too, after its release of earnings revisions for the year ending March 2007, confirmed today by the president on the company website, precipitating a further 14% slide in IBD's share price.

Of course, there could be another explanation, i.e. that CSB is holding shares in Stanelco that they haven't told us about !! :o)

I've been in CSB since the 30p days and I think now represents very good value for money.
Going back over previous reports from CSB, there is much more to the company than IB Daiwa.
All IMHO and DYOR etc., but it looks a good bet at the moment.
Alan

Al, I'm inclined to agree that things are looking better value, but would want to do more homework first. It might be a good idea to wait for the next quartelies for some guidance.

IB Daiwa's website is very informative and should help provide some idea of where the bloodletting might end.

IB Daiwa English homepage

As I understand on IB Daiwa's web side the financial "problem" is mostly due to technical delays in production and the low gas price at the present. The resereves are intact. The gas prices probably stay low for some time due to the large amount in storage but production volume should get back on track.

I have some shares at the present and think the stock is cheap now, but I'll wait for the next quarter report before increasing my stake.

Maybe it would be a better play just to buy shares in IB Daiwa directly? (get 100% of the "come back")

How able is the japanese stock market to correctly evaluate oil / gas companies?

Wonder whats set a fire under these today?
Alan

Dunno but Pantheon Resources is up 16p, approx 12% and they are drilling at Plum Deep in which IB Daiwa also has a stake.

Am I right to be concerned?? The RNS of 01/11/2006 promised the quarterly results today and we have not had them yet.
Worrying, but why??
Alan

After too long of being quiet, a very interesting RNS today to market a new form of breast cancer screening in Japan.
Markets reacted well.
Alan

Alan, last time I was in these they paid a good divi. Do you know whether that's still the case?

Bought in earlier this am and now up brilliantly at present. Is this the start of a real turn around in fortunes?

Cheers, Madison

Hi Madison,
No Divi at the moment, or any plans I am aware of, but the cancer thing could be very big.
Huge potential to screen with a piece of hair rather than a mammogram. I cannot see how this would not prove popular if it is proven.
Alan

Thanks Alan

Yes, I've been thinking about getting back in here for the last month irrespective of this news. Shame about the divi though!

Cheers Madison

How rubbish is this?