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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Fundamentalist - 05 Dec 2005 21:37 - 494 of 1009

Buy Note From Daniel Stewart Dated 5/12/05 - Price Target 1.80:

Retail Decisions (ReD), a leading provider of services to the payments industry, has announced the acquisition of E Com Industries, Australias largest supplier of electronic stored value cards, for 12.9m. The acquisition is complementary to ReDs recent acquisition of Fuelserv (see note 14th November 2005), as ReD looks to expand the breadth and depth of its card-issuing and processing offering.
E Com, founded in 1998 by the current CTO and based in Sydney, hasaround 50% of the Australian gift voucher market. Revenues in the year to 30th June 2005 were 2.5m, up 160% on the same period last year and the company has achieved 93% compound growth over the past three years. The company also reported a small maiden operating profit. The transaction will be funded through an 11m increase in debt and 1.5m from existing cash resources.
Although the consideration looks full in terms of historic performance we expect E Com to contribute 6.1m of additional revenues and 1.5m of EBITDA in FY06, increasing to 8.8m of revenues and 2.8m of EBITDA. This suggests a forward transaction multiple of 8.6x. The increased level of debt will increase net interest payable by 0.9m but interest cover will be a healthy 19.7x.
E Com is the only independent provider of stored value solutions with access to the entire bank-acquiring network in Australia. The company boasts a blue chip client base of retailers (Woolworths, Coles Myer, Dymocks, Harvey World Travel and RM Williams). It has also expanded into New Zealand and had planned a launch in the UK.
E Com derives its revenues from electronic gift card programme management (62%), voucher sales (24%) and the balance from the pass-through of operational costs of managing gift card programmes. This represents a mix of set-up and transaction fees as well as the value of vouchers sold.
A stored value (pre-paid) card enables a user to spend a pre-determined balance that has been previously loaded onto the card. The cards can be single use or reloadable and can be limited to one ormultiple merchants. Card types include gift, incentive, insurance claim, benefits, loyalty and pre-paid fuel cards.
The European pre-paid market was estimated to be worth 20-25bn in 2003 and is forecast 30-35% CAGR over the five years to 2008 (Source: Mastercard). An increasing percentage of UK retailers are now offering gift cards.
As noted in our note of the 14th, Fuelserv has historically turned down a number of potential customers because of credit control issues. Through this acquisition, ReD will be able to address this market with a pre-paid card. There is also scope to cross-sell E Coms offering into ReDs existing Australian fuel cards business as well as launching gift cards in the UK, US and Europe.
Revised forecasts reflect the impact of the acquisition as well as the share consolidation (effective November 28th). The impact of the acquisition is to increase FY06 earnings by 5.2%. The enlarged group is trading on a FY06 PER of 14.0x. We believe that ReDs high revenue visibility and cash generation makes this rating undemanding. We maintain our BUY recommendation and set a revised price target of 180p, equivalent to 19.1x FY06 earnings.

Douggie - 06 Dec 2005 13:54 - 495 of 1009

But ........ we aint goin anywhere fast are we !!

having said that blue at 0.5p every day we'll get there ;o\

Fred1new - 06 Dec 2005 14:03 - 496 of 1009

Douggie, it is better to buy a slowly well built house than one put up on poor foundations and with flimsy material. It is climbing quite nicely.

Douggie - 06 Dec 2005 16:54 - 497 of 1009

it's all foundations here .............. start the building !

55011 - 06 Dec 2005 17:05 - 498 of 1009

Looks like the foundations have just sunk.

First SETS auction this evening. I dare say folk are still trying to adjust to the new systems. It seems to wobble in thin trading, and the buys versus sells are not necessarily a guide to overall price movement. Today is a pretty good example of that.

Not having L2, I do not know who the key players are. Last time I did have L2, I was playing a stock where the named MMs were never on either the bid or offer, and if they approached either then that proved to be a good signal to act. Indeed they were mostly extremely keen to keep their distance from the action. Unless of course they were playing anonymously........ A happy time!

SETS is not all that some make it out to be. Caveat emptor, as always.

55011 - 07 Dec 2005 09:21 - 499 of 1009

Another day. Another angle. Anyone wanting some of these in a hurry has "had it". Max buy size is 1,500. You don't see many buyers, Not surprising. "The market" is not allowing it. Want to sell. Go right ahead! But no takers.

So what do we make of all this. Very thin conditions, bigger fish behind the scenes(just as in the good ol' MM days) trying to accumulate without causing the price to soar? GS and MAN are "in" and probably want more. A decent stake they can later sell on at a profit.

Who knows. Isn't the Stock Exchange the greatest enigma going?

55011 - 07 Dec 2005 11:40 - 500 of 1009

And here is another statement of confidence, issued at 11.08 and coming just after a 42,200 "X" trade.:-

Director/PDMR Shareholding

RNS Number:2737V
Retail Decisions PLC
07 December 2005

Retail Decisions plc (the "Company")

Directors' Shareholdings

The Company has today been informed of purchases of Ordinary 5p shares in the
Company ("Shares") by Directors of the Company as follows:


Director No. Shares Date of Price per
Purchased Dealing Share (p)
Nigel Whittaker - Non-Executive Chairman 9,584 06/12/05 131
Richard Amos - Finance Director 8,334 06/12/05 128
Geoff Westmore - Non-executive Director 8,334 06/12/05 131
Carl Clump - Chief Executive 8,000 07/12/05 127.4


All these shares will be registered in the names of the respective Directors,
with the exception of Nigel Whittaker, who's shares will be registered in the
name of SG Hambros Bank & Trust Ltd.

Following these purchases, the resultant holdings of these Directors are as
follows:


Director Total Holding
Shares %
Nigel Whittaker - Non-Executive Chairman 600,000 0.77
Richard Amos - Finance Director 30,000 0.04
Geoff Westmore - Non-executive Director 225,000 0.29
Carl Clump - Chief Executive 138,563 0.18


Further enquiries:

Richard Amos
Group Finance Director
Tel: (01483) 728700




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END

RDSBBBDDSGGGGUR


55011 - 07 Dec 2005 11:40 - 501 of 1009

.

55011 - 07 Dec 2005 11:40 - 502 of 1009

.

Douggie - 07 Dec 2005 12:04 - 503 of 1009

. .

optomistic - 07 Dec 2005 12:14 - 504 of 1009

The 1500 limit buy doesn't seem to be in place now.

55011 - 07 Dec 2005 13:11 - 505 of 1009

No. It evened out after the rise, then went the other way..... and now it's evened out again. Might see some decent trading volumes now.

Fred1new - 07 Dec 2005 14:18 - 506 of 1009

FOR Douggie, Rome wasn't built in a day.

















I know it is rule by a different board of directors now. 8-)

Douggie - 07 Dec 2005 17:38 - 507 of 1009

..... ;-/

Douggie - 13 Dec 2005 09:54 - 508 of 1009

mourning all ......... all this red whiped :0) of my face :-[[

Douggie - 14 Dec 2005 12:40 - 509 of 1009

still RED ..... :-[[

optomistic - 14 Dec 2005 22:08 - 510 of 1009

Douggie, perhaps this will put a little blue about tomorrow:

14 December 2005
RETAIL DECISIONS ENTERS GIFT CARD MARKET
Retail Decisions (ReD), the fuel card issuer and a world leader in card fraud prevention and payment processing, is pleased to announce that it is launching a range of pre-paid card services including Gift Cards and Electronic Gift vouchers.

This follows ReD's recent acquisition of E Com Industries Pty Ltd (E Com), Australia's largest electronic gift voucher and gift card operator. In Australia the services are currently used by, amongst others, Coles Myer and Woolworths, Australia's two largest retailers as well as other retailers across a wide range of sectors including high street retail, supermarkets, travel and entertainment.

ReD is combining its existing knowledge and experience of delivering fraud prevention, payment processing and card issuing with the industry leading gift card capability acquired from E Com Industries to deliver market leading solutions to the UK, European and US markets.

The benefits to retailers that adopt gift card schemes are significant.
For example, gift cards enable merchants to provide a more modern consumer offering than paper based vouchers, with better merchandising and branding opportunities. They also provide significant operational cost savings around security, administration and fraud prevention.

Carl Clump, CEO of Retail Decisions comments: "We are delighted to be able to offer a range of gift cards and electronic gift voucher services not just to our existing clients but to all retailers. ReD's expertise in fraud prevention and payment processing coupled with our new pre-paid capability will give retailers a comprehensive payments solution which will increase revenue and customer loyalty whilst reducing costs and fraud."

Douggie - 15 Dec 2005 11:07 - 511 of 1009

Thanks opto. worked so far will it hold ?.. ;o\

IT MOST CERTAINLY SHOULD !

pachandl - 16 Dec 2005 13:30 - 512 of 1009

Is this up or down?
1. Name of company

RETAIL DECISIONS PLC


2. Name of shareholder having a major interest

THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. ('GS INC.')


3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect of holding
of the shareholder named in 2 above or in respect of a non-beneficial interest
or in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that person's
spouse or children under the age of 18

(A) GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO, a wholly-owned direct subsidiary of GS INC., acting as
custodian for its customers; and
(B) GOLDMAN SACHS INTERNATIONAL, a wholly-owned indirect subsidiary of GS INC.


4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the number of
shares held by each of them

(A) GOLDMAN SACHS SECURITIES (NOMINEES), LIMITED 1,690
(B) GOLDMAN SACHS INTERNATIONAL A/C CREPTEMP 3,889,782


5. Number of shares / amount of stock acquired

NOT INFORMED


6. Percentage of issued class

NOT INFORMED


7. Number of shares / amount of stock disposed

NOT INFORMED


8. Percentage of issued class

NOT INFORMED


9. Class of security

ORDINARY 5P SHARES


10. Date of transaction

NOT INFORMED


11. Date company informed

15 DECEMBER 2005


12. Total holding following this notification

3,891,472


13. Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification

4.99%

optomistic - 16 Dec 2005 13:34 - 513 of 1009

Reduced a little, about 40K. Or so I have read.
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