Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

I was thinking that too dealer could it be the Banks have run out of steam and oils will benefit.

Freddie Mac numbers disappoint

Making a come back I'm fully invested in Dana and Vpc.

Interesting.

Why has PMO gone up and not DNX?

Bought back in today at 1233 after being stopped out at 1380, see if the 12 offers any more support

Yeah, I chose to buy today at 12.52. There's a lot of support at 12 pounds so I'll give the chartists the benefit of the doubt. I kept money back in case it drops more, when it will become more of a bargain. But I hope and think 12 should offer a floor to the price. Interestingly, the retreat in the oil price means shares have risen today, including nonsensically oil shares. duh! sentiment. When oil drops people get so excited that markets will rebound, well dana's been benefiting from the high oil price. Sentiment makes fools of us all. now dana's dropped back to the price of last november, when it had not had 8 months exposure to the high oil price, and more significantly hadn't had a find which added 25% to its reserves and therefore value. I wonder if it fell partly because there was simply no meaningful support from 19 to 12. But this example shows how hollow technicalanalysis is because that jump was for a reason, something new which justified an overnight rerating. Have faith investors. It might not go up tomorrow but it will sometime.

We held dana for 2.5 years, buying at 12 it then fell to 8 a couple of times in the intervening years. We just forgot about it. Then it started jumping from 10, 12 - 14 on the charts, we nearly sold out at 14, the height on the charts for a meagre 10% chart. Fortunatley, we held off and then it jumped on its find, we didint sell, and still hold this , which is annoying, but cest la vie. There was a reason we didnt sell at 19, and that it that it is fundamentally cheap with lots of potential new finds.

Is there a better share out there at a better price than Dana? Maybe Billiton or AQP but in those cases the commodity price has dropped significantly.

Ilike Cairn Energy as well. It's good because the longer they take to get their oil out the more the price of their substantial assets rises. Theyjust have to sit on it.

The only fly in the ointment though is Iran as far as DNX is concerned & as far as the analysts are concerned. That little problem isn't going to go away any time soon.

Well yes, in the sense that it would depress the whole market and oil shares too. But, in this upside down world, the oil price would go up were any action to be taken which would benefit Dana at some point. What chances, a cheeky bid for Dana, ala the one for lonmin today. I'm not surprised Lonmin gave short shrift Xstrata knew Lonmin had been artificially downvalued and were at it. The boards will just wait for value to out. I've just been watching Warren Buffett on CNBC. He looks for inefficiencies and then buys and waits.

I've often thought no-one should be allowed to work in the money markets (analysts, or whatever) until they've invested their own money in a share and held it while it halves. Seeing how you cope under such circumstances gives you fortitude when it happens again. Of course, you have to know what you're doing to buy a good company at a good price initially.

Take heart from Elementis today. I bought at 86 a year ago. It went up to 102 twice I didn't sell , then dropped to about 50p. I couldn't understand it, thought about buying more, didn't , now it's up to 90 today. I'm in profit but I should have trusted my convictions to buy more. I think there's always a part of investors which thinks, if it's dropped almost 50% or so, could there be something wrong, something we don't know about, which produces more selling and sometimes there is. But if you're confident in your research you should be able to sleep at night.

I like the copy of the Intelligent Investor with up to date examples by Jason Zweig, I think it's brilliant. He says that when good shares are 50% down it's like a

SALE Everything half-price, and guess what, great news tomorrow they might drop another 20% price. Wouldn't that be great!

Goldman out with buy/attractive rec today, target 2140p

I expect to see us recovering to the 200dma in pretty quick time (currently 1460p)

Goldman also saying "potentially attractive acquisition target".

A bid on any in the sector would provide a welcome boost, check out lonmin yesterday!

Absolutely! Chances are increasing that it can happen here too. I would like to see a few takeover successes in my portfolio right now ;)

Dana's debt situation is encouraging and following recent finds and rising production, it's dirt cheap. Someone somewhere putting the sliderule over it we hope!

Bought again at 1209 after selling the other day at 1290ish. Hoping for a double bottom! Possibility of it visiting 1050 in which case buy again I suppose

Yes I traded likewise. Bought at 1250 and sold at 1350

Strange that DNX has made much more progress than PMO over the last couple of days.

Dana has said that its results will be released a week tomorrow.

Still dirt cheap along with VPC.

Excellent set of results this morning, looks like the market is gradually waking up to the fact. Plus low debt levels and a lot more drills to come this year.

Record first half production of 43,147 boepd up 67%

Turnover increased by 188% to a record high of 314.5 million

Record Pre-tax Profit of 133.1 million up 138%, leading to Earnings Per Share of 69.95p

More than threefold growth in cashflow from operations to a new high of 193.9 million

Net debt further reduced to 9.0 million, lowering gearing to below 2%

Up 60p great.