Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Just watched George Osborne answering questions on the rebate,


Thought I was watching a new series of "Would I Lie to You".


No George, but you would try.

have i got news for you! ....... the rebate is exactly what i said it was, didn't i?

Max, hes been lying through his teeth.

Watching the same debate on SKY news.

Osbourne taking a right thrashing.

On the parliament channel aswel.

Manuel,

have i got news for you!

That is a "joke" program.


Damn, missed your point.

I understand what you mean.

He is funny!

8-)

it's often very funny indeed as well as pretty scurrilous ...... amazed that they get away with some of the comments

I think George's and Cameron's "Had to be paid by December 1st" means "the rebate is due on December 1st".

Also, total up the figures and looking how the lying Bs are postponing 2nd payment to after the election

When their cry in opposition will "we wouldn't have paid it".

The have an expert liar as a PR man to support two in government.

This is why the public are switched off politics.

Indeed indeed Fred.

I just thinking what some politicians and PM's could have on their tombstones.

There are some who could have that "He lied for Britain".

On Cameron's it would be he "He Lied to Britain"

==============

It seems that the recent Murder in Blackwood was carried by an unsupervised, or insufficiently supervised Paranoid Schizophrenic, who was not on his appropriate medication.

Medication, which he was on while he was intermittently in prison!

The reasons for lack of supervision has been put down to inappropriate cut backs by this government in Probation Services, Nursing Services and Social Services.

Similar problems can be expected in other areas.

==-=-=-=-=-=-=

Thanks George and IDS.

are you absolutely certain this does not date back an awful lot further?
it's a genuine Q, for i gather he was in/out of prison for many years ..... whether or not he should have been allowed at all is a different Q

WOW Theresa May getting a right thrashing on the parliament channel over the European arrest Warrant. Well none vote on it like Camoron promissed BEFORE the Rochester By election.

Bill Cash as just turned on here in a vemenous attack.

Never seen parliament so angry.

Hear Cameron and crew has been made another cock up.


Bring back Hague.

Or if you can find which bedroom Boris is in, bring him on.

But do tell him, it is an election which is needed not his erection.

Sounds like you're jealous Fred!

I cringed at the thought.

Not my type!

I didn't mean that - I was referring to his prowess in the bedroom with his various lady friends. Oh well, never mind!

Just remember who Boris reminds me of.


David Mellor without his football shirts.

DB4

I cringe at that thought too.

Prefer a good glass of wine at my age.

Less sweat!

Just wonder what the "spiel" from the dirty tricks brigade at tory party central office will be to morrow.

Can I see Hays peeping around the door, or is that Snappy.

No it is Hays.

He must be running messages for them.

What a joke this crew has made the tories look.

By Roger Bootle

7:40PM GMT 09 Nov 2014

CommentsComments





Only a few short years ago, the future of the British economy seemed to be swathed in gloom. Not only had output fallen dramatically since its previous peak, but there were few signs of, and scant hope for, an early recovery. When growth did resume, it was widely believed that it would be at a weaker pace than we had known before, but doubtless still of the traditional, unbalanced, British variety – that is to say, based on excessive growth of consumer spending.


At about the point of peak pessimism, it was also widely believed that Britain’s endemic problem with regard to inflation was back again. As inflation climbed towards 5pc, many people thought it would go a good deal higher, even as high as 10pc. Meanwhile, the state of the public finances seemed grim beyond measure.


The overall view was that the UK had lived in a fantasy world before the financial crisis and its future would now inevitably be one of straightened circumstances. It would drop down the international league tables. We had to adapt ourselves to a much smaller role in the world. Hence our diminished sense of national self confidence – and those appallingly ill-conceived defence cuts, whose consequences are still very much with us.


One of the few benefits of age is that you have seen most things before. I have lived through umpteen UK crises and several trips on the optimism/pessimism roller-coaster. This gives you a sense of perspective. Things are rarely as bad as they seem in the low spots – and, unfortunately, rarely as good as they seem at the highs.


This was my message to readers during the Brown years of hubris. But in the depths of the economic collapse that followed, I warned that over-optimism had turned to over-pessimism. Although it would be a hard road, the UK would be back.



I am delighted to say that this view has been vindicated. Key elements of the pessimistic consensus have been proved dramatically wrong. Not only did output recover, but the pace of recovery has been just about the fastest of any of the advanced countries. (Indeed, I must admit that the recovery came sooner and stronger than I had anticipated.) Meanwhile, CPI inflation has recently fallen to 1.2pc.

As to the shape of the economy, although net exports continue to be relatively weak, and there is a serious need for the UK to shift away from domestic demand, in 2014 the growth of overall investment will contribute as much to the growth of aggregate demand as increased consumer spending.

One aspect of the pessimistic consensus that still remains to be tested is the view that Britain’s output capacity has been seriously reduced by the financial crash and the subsequent recession. If this view is correct then, welcome though Britain’s current decent growth rate is, before very long the economy will run into capacity constraints. At that point growth will have to fall back, either naturally or as the result of some form of policy tightening.

But the consensus story of equipment being scrapped or becoming obsolete, and/or skills atrophying on a massive scale, never seemed very convincing to me. Rather, the story of the past few years, I thought, was largely about deficient aggregate demand, not lack of supply capacity. If that view proves to be right, then the economy may be able to go on growing at these rates for many years yet without running into capacity constraints.

The implications are huge. Whereas it has been fashionable to think that Britain is bound to be unambiguously poorer than it otherwise would have been, not just now, but forever into the future, there is a hope that Britain may eventually get close to the level of prosperity that it would have achieved if things had continued as before.

What has happened in the labour market reinforces this possibility. It is looking as though we are a long way from exhausting possible supplies of labour, with more and more workers being drawn into the labour market as the economy expands. And now the increase in investment holds out the prospect of the capital stock also rising. So are we on the well-trodden path to over-optimism all over again?

For me, there are four main continuing sources of concern. First, the public finances. This is one aspect of the pessimistic consensus that has held up quite well. The budget deficit has come down a fair way – from over 10pc of GDP in 2009-10 to less than 6pc of GDP in 2013-14. Nevertheless, this remains unhealthily high.

But this is a much less serious issue than weakness of the economy. It is always possible that the public finances will bounce back of their own accord. If this does not happen in the next year or so, then there will have to be big cuts in public spending and/or increases in taxation. This will create a headwind for the economy, but it does not necessarily mean that it cannot keep growing well.

The second problem is the continuing overvaluation of the housing market. This threatens a painful correction once interest rates start rising. As in the past, this could deal a devastating blow to the economy. In practice, however, I am hopeful that the adjustment will be gradual. Interest rates are not going up for a while yet, and when they do they will rise only slowly.

This leads on to my third worry, which will be familiar to regular readers, namely the yawning gap in Britain’s overseas trade. This is as large as it is partly because of the weakness in the eurozone. But it is also a reflection of our weak competitive position, partly associated with overly strong sterling. I feel that at some point the pound is likely to plunge. Ultimately, this could prove to be a blessing in disguise. Yet, paraphrasing Churchill, for a while at least, the disguise might prove to be a rather good one.

My last major concern is our very low rate of productivity growth. For the UK really to bounce back, this will need to recover. I am optimistic that eventually it will. Recent weak productivity has been the flipside of the huge growth in employment, and the latter is an overwhelmingly positive development. I could call it miraculous but that would be misleading. For once, it is quite simply the result of the Government’s radical policies on welfare and tax. Now that’s saying something. It bodes well for Britain’s future.


Roger Bootle is managing director of Capital Economics

roger.bootle@capitaleconomics.com