Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

WOW Theresa May getting a right thrashing on the parliament channel over the European arrest Warrant. Well none vote on it like Camoron promissed BEFORE the Rochester By election.

Bill Cash as just turned on here in a vemenous attack.

Never seen parliament so angry.

Hear Cameron and crew has been made another cock up.


Bring back Hague.

Or if you can find which bedroom Boris is in, bring him on.

But do tell him, it is an election which is needed not his erection.

Sounds like you're jealous Fred!

I cringed at the thought.

Not my type!

I didn't mean that - I was referring to his prowess in the bedroom with his various lady friends. Oh well, never mind!

Just remember who Boris reminds me of.


David Mellor without his football shirts.

DB4

I cringe at that thought too.

Prefer a good glass of wine at my age.

Less sweat!

Just wonder what the "spiel" from the dirty tricks brigade at tory party central office will be to morrow.

Can I see Hays peeping around the door, or is that Snappy.

No it is Hays.

He must be running messages for them.

What a joke this crew has made the tories look.

By Roger Bootle

7:40PM GMT 09 Nov 2014

CommentsComments





Only a few short years ago, the future of the British economy seemed to be swathed in gloom. Not only had output fallen dramatically since its previous peak, but there were few signs of, and scant hope for, an early recovery. When growth did resume, it was widely believed that it would be at a weaker pace than we had known before, but doubtless still of the traditional, unbalanced, British variety – that is to say, based on excessive growth of consumer spending.


At about the point of peak pessimism, it was also widely believed that Britain’s endemic problem with regard to inflation was back again. As inflation climbed towards 5pc, many people thought it would go a good deal higher, even as high as 10pc. Meanwhile, the state of the public finances seemed grim beyond measure.


The overall view was that the UK had lived in a fantasy world before the financial crisis and its future would now inevitably be one of straightened circumstances. It would drop down the international league tables. We had to adapt ourselves to a much smaller role in the world. Hence our diminished sense of national self confidence – and those appallingly ill-conceived defence cuts, whose consequences are still very much with us.


One of the few benefits of age is that you have seen most things before. I have lived through umpteen UK crises and several trips on the optimism/pessimism roller-coaster. This gives you a sense of perspective. Things are rarely as bad as they seem in the low spots – and, unfortunately, rarely as good as they seem at the highs.


This was my message to readers during the Brown years of hubris. But in the depths of the economic collapse that followed, I warned that over-optimism had turned to over-pessimism. Although it would be a hard road, the UK would be back.



I am delighted to say that this view has been vindicated. Key elements of the pessimistic consensus have been proved dramatically wrong. Not only did output recover, but the pace of recovery has been just about the fastest of any of the advanced countries. (Indeed, I must admit that the recovery came sooner and stronger than I had anticipated.) Meanwhile, CPI inflation has recently fallen to 1.2pc.

As to the shape of the economy, although net exports continue to be relatively weak, and there is a serious need for the UK to shift away from domestic demand, in 2014 the growth of overall investment will contribute as much to the growth of aggregate demand as increased consumer spending.

One aspect of the pessimistic consensus that still remains to be tested is the view that Britain’s output capacity has been seriously reduced by the financial crash and the subsequent recession. If this view is correct then, welcome though Britain’s current decent growth rate is, before very long the economy will run into capacity constraints. At that point growth will have to fall back, either naturally or as the result of some form of policy tightening.

But the consensus story of equipment being scrapped or becoming obsolete, and/or skills atrophying on a massive scale, never seemed very convincing to me. Rather, the story of the past few years, I thought, was largely about deficient aggregate demand, not lack of supply capacity. If that view proves to be right, then the economy may be able to go on growing at these rates for many years yet without running into capacity constraints.

The implications are huge. Whereas it has been fashionable to think that Britain is bound to be unambiguously poorer than it otherwise would have been, not just now, but forever into the future, there is a hope that Britain may eventually get close to the level of prosperity that it would have achieved if things had continued as before.

What has happened in the labour market reinforces this possibility. It is looking as though we are a long way from exhausting possible supplies of labour, with more and more workers being drawn into the labour market as the economy expands. And now the increase in investment holds out the prospect of the capital stock also rising. So are we on the well-trodden path to over-optimism all over again?

For me, there are four main continuing sources of concern. First, the public finances. This is one aspect of the pessimistic consensus that has held up quite well. The budget deficit has come down a fair way – from over 10pc of GDP in 2009-10 to less than 6pc of GDP in 2013-14. Nevertheless, this remains unhealthily high.

But this is a much less serious issue than weakness of the economy. It is always possible that the public finances will bounce back of their own accord. If this does not happen in the next year or so, then there will have to be big cuts in public spending and/or increases in taxation. This will create a headwind for the economy, but it does not necessarily mean that it cannot keep growing well.

The second problem is the continuing overvaluation of the housing market. This threatens a painful correction once interest rates start rising. As in the past, this could deal a devastating blow to the economy. In practice, however, I am hopeful that the adjustment will be gradual. Interest rates are not going up for a while yet, and when they do they will rise only slowly.

This leads on to my third worry, which will be familiar to regular readers, namely the yawning gap in Britain’s overseas trade. This is as large as it is partly because of the weakness in the eurozone. But it is also a reflection of our weak competitive position, partly associated with overly strong sterling. I feel that at some point the pound is likely to plunge. Ultimately, this could prove to be a blessing in disguise. Yet, paraphrasing Churchill, for a while at least, the disguise might prove to be a rather good one.

My last major concern is our very low rate of productivity growth. For the UK really to bounce back, this will need to recover. I am optimistic that eventually it will. Recent weak productivity has been the flipside of the huge growth in employment, and the latter is an overwhelmingly positive development. I could call it miraculous but that would be misleading. For once, it is quite simply the result of the Government’s radical policies on welfare and tax. Now that’s saying something. It bodes well for Britain’s future.


Roger Bootle is managing director of Capital Economics

roger.bootle@capitaleconomics.com

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/10/labour-problem-not-ed-miliband-voters-dislike-party

Labour’s problem isn’t Ed Miliband, it’s Labour

Voters dislike not just the Labour leader, but a party suffering from a lack of original thinking and political ferment

The question is obvious, simple and urgent. Would Labour do better under a different leader? Unfortunately the answer is both complex and uncertain.

Let’s start with a truth that Ed Miliband himself cannot deny. His ratings are terrible. According to YouGov’s latest poll for the Sunday Times, just 18% of the public think he is up to the job of prime minister; 64% do not. But that’s not the worst of it. Among people who voted Labour in 2010, only 34% now think he is up to the job – a marked fall from his 51% rating just one month ago. 42% of these voters say he is not up to the job, a big jump from 28% in early October.

Other YouGov polls tell a similar story and help to explain why Labour’s lead, 14% at its mid-term peak two years ago, has now evaporated. Compared with November 2012, fewer people see Labour’s leader as strong, honest and decisive. He used to score reasonably well as someone who is “in touch with ordinary people”. No longer.

Cameron at it again...anyone thinking he would live up to his promises must need their heads tested.




Cameron facing rebellion as he denies MPs vote on European arrest warrant

Commons Speaker John Bercow says public would regard surprise decision not to allow vote on EAW as ‘contemptuous’



Rowena Mason and Andrew Sparrow


The Guardian, Monday 10 November 2014 17.48 GMT


David Cameron has withdrawn his commitment to holding a vote on the European arrest warrant in a move that the Speaker of the House of Commons said would be regarded as “contemptuous” by the public.

MPs thought they were going to vote on whether to opt in to 35 EU justice and home affairs measures, including the European arrest warrant, which is opposed by dozens of Conservative backbenchers over fears that Britons are being sent for trial abroad for minor offences.

However, the Speaker, John Bercow, confirmed that there would only be a vote on 11 of those measures, which do not include the controversial warrant. Ministers insisted that this was as good as voting on the whole package, which has to be re-adopted by the UK by 1 December.

In an extraordinary attack on the government, Bercow said: “I think I have given a fairly clear indication that this has been a sorry saga. And the house should not be put in this position. Most of us think that a commitment made is a commitment that should be honoured, and we should try to operate according to sensible standards, rather than try to slip things through through some sort of artifice.

“It may be the sort of thing that some people think is very clever, but people outside of the house expect straightforward. And they are frankly contemptuous, and I use the word advisably, contemptuous of what is not straight dealing. Let’s try to learn from this experience and do better.”



More: http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/nov/10/cameron-facing-rebellion-denied-mps-vote-european-arrest-warrant

can someone remind me .... so does that mean we are staying WITH the eaw or dumping it?

We will be staying with the EAW, most definitely.

Haze,

i refer you to his talk at the CBI.

Well received, sensible and honest!

The latter being not easily associated with Cameron.

What about to-night's tory cock up at HP.

The right wing will not forgive him.


Your party is doomed, Doomed!

Without consent.

The vote is irrelevant. Labour totally support it. The Libs do as well. The bulk of the Conservatives also support it. The majority in favour of it would be huge. The government has lumped together a number of measures of the criminal justice bill relating to EU laws including the EAW and that is what is being voted on.

Slippery, like most of cameroons positions.

He'll pay the price.

The great denier!

You can see the skid marks on Osborne.

These are just parliamentary procedural matters. A lot of fuss about nothing and soon forgotten. We will have the EAW however it is done. It is all on the parliament channel now.