A quote from todays Telegraph
" Questions were being asked why it took Cadbury more than 5 months to report the contamination. Although the incident occured in january, the Foods Standard Agency was told only on Monday."
That timing is a good enough indicator for me.
Public announcement
This Cadbury bear is going into hibernation
I shall reappear, I know not when, but it wont be on Monday and thats for sure.

A possible Krafty offer should cheer any holders of these up today.. any out there?

Hmmm 745p turned down - current price 794.5p!

UPDATE: Kraft Will Have To Sweeten Cadbury Bid - Analysts





(Adds detail, comments from Kraft CEO and analyst)

By Michael Carolan and Lilly Vitorovich
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- U.S. food giant Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) will have to sweeten its surprise GBP10.2 billion offer for Cadbury PLC (CBY) by around 7% to have a plausible chance of buying the U.K. confectioner and preventing rival bidders from emerging, analysts said Monday.

Kraft's 300 pence in cash coupled with 0.2589 new Kraft shares for each Cadbury share, equivalent to 745 pence a piece, which has already been rejected, would have be increased to at least the equivalent of 800 pence to get Cadbury's board to the negotiating table.

"We believe that Kraft will need to up its offer to have any serious chance of success, perhaps to 800 pence in cash or higher and may need assistance given that it already has around $15 billion debt," Charles Stanley analyst Jeremy Batstone-Carr said. For now, he maintains an accumulate rating on Cadbury, the world's second-largest confectionary company behind Mars Inc. by product sales.

Sanford C. Bernstein senior research analyst Andrew Wood Monday stood by his two-year old prediction that Cadbury's could fetch between GBP8.30 and GBP9.30 a share.

Other potential bidders for Cadbury include U.S.-based Mars and Hershey Co (HSY) as well as Switzerland's Nestle SA (NESN.VX), according to analysts.

Evolution Securities Warren Ackerman believes "there is a reasonable chance" that Nestle and Hershey could counter bid, with Nestle taking the gum business and Hershey getting the chocolate operations.

He noted Mars paid 34 times price-to-earnings for Wrigley and 18 times earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, so the Kraft offer for Cadbury "looks a low ball bid", adding that it's therefore not surprising that the board has rejected the bid.

At a factory opening ceremony in Switzerland Monday, Nestle CEO Paul Bulcke said the world's biggest consumer goods company remains open to acquisitions, but that growth for the group will mainly come from existing businesses. Bulcke declined to comment on Kraft's bid for Cadbury, however. Nestle spends between 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($1.4 billion) and CHF2 billion on acquisitions annually.

Cadbury, which makes Daily Milk chocolate bars and Trident chewing gum, Monday said Kraft's proposal "fundamentally undervalues the group and its prospects".

Kraft Chairman and Chief Executive Irene Rosenfeld wouldnt comment on whether a higher bid was possible when asked by analysts on a conference call Monday, instead describing its current offer as compelling.

Her view was shared by Neil Saunders, an analyst at U.K. market research firm Verdict, who described Kraft's GBP10.2 billion offer as representing "full and fair value". "The logic of a deal is compelling as it would allow the combined group to compete more effectively, especially against Nestle. The brand portfolios of the two groups complement each other perfectly with minimal overlap, Saunders said in a note.

The 745 pence a share bid is a 31% premium to Cadbury's closing share price of 568 pence on Friday. At 1018 GMT, Cadbury's shares were up 231 pence, or 41%, at 799 pence with around 30 million shares changing hands on the London bourse on hopes of an increased offer or other bids emerging. Its the biggest riser on the bellwether FTSE 100 index, which is up 1.4%.

Company Web sites: www.kraftfoodscompany.com; www.cadbury.com

Cadbury call on Kraft to put up or shut up over bid

Kraft unlikely to walk away, admits Cadbury

Statement re Takeover Panel Deadline (Cadbury Schweppes)





TIDMCBRY

30 September 2009

Cadbury Notes the Takeover Panel Deadline

Cadbury plc ("Cadbury" or "the Group") notes today's announcement by the
Takeover Panel Executive that it has imposed a deadline of 5.00pm on 9 November
2009, by which time Kraft Foods Inc ("Kraft") must, unless the Takeover Panel
Executive consents otherwise, either announce a firm intention to make an offer
for Cadbury under Rule 2.5 of the UK Takeover Code, or announce that it does
not intend to make an offer for Cadbury.

Kraft made a proposal to the Board of Cadbury on 28 August which was rejected
in a letter to the Chairman and CEO of Kraft on 31 August. On 7 September,
Kraft published the terms of this proposal and the Board of Cadbury confirmed
that it had rejected the proposal on the grounds that it made no strategic or
financial sense for Cadbury and fundamentally undervalued the Group and its
prospects. The Board's view has not changed since then and the Board reiterates
its rejection of Kraft's approach.

Roger Carr, Chairman of Cadbury said: "Cadbury has a strong position in the
global confectionery market and the Board is confident in Cadbury's standalone
pure play strategy and growth prospects. We have made our position on Kraft's
proposal very clear and we welcome the Panel's decision today in the interests
of obtaining clarity and certainty for our shareholders and employees at the
earliest opportunity."

Ends

I'm out of these now, which probably means the bid is just around the corner - good luck to any holders/speculators.

Edited - link out of date!

Cadbury raises forecast to ward off Kraft bid

is there a real probability of these plummeting back to 6-ish a share if KRAFT don't make a formal offer by 03 Nov 09? i know there is usually a fall back if they have increased on speculation of an offer. does anyone think that KRAFT will make an increased offer?

Kraft set to go hostile in bid for Cadbury

Irene Rosenfeld, the chief executive of Kraft, is putting the finishing touches to a 10.5 billion hostile bid for Cadbury that will be tabled in the next 10 days.

Kraft vows to be disciplined in pursuit of Cadbury

Kraft, the giant American food company, said last night that it would remain disciplined in pursuing a bid for Cadbury, the British chocolate maker, even as it lowered its outlook for sales for the coming year.

The US groups statement of intent came as reports suggested that Kraft had obtained $9 billion (5.5 billion) of financing for its bid from nine banks. The lead underwriters are understood to be Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Barclays. Kraft declined to comment.

Cadbury to slam Krafts cheap hostile bid

Kraft ready to go hostile with bid for Cadbury as deadline looms

Offer by Kraft Foods Inc. for Cadbury PLC (Cadbury Schweppes)





TIDMCBRY

RNS Number : 1650C
Kraft Foods Inc.
09 November 2009

?
NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN, INTO OR
FROM JAPAN OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION
OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OF THAT JURISDICTION


For Immediate Release


9 November 2009


OFFER


by


KRAFT FOODS INC.


for


CADBURY PLC


SUMMARY


* Kraft Foods is pleased to announce the terms of an Offer for Cadbury
* Kraft Foods will offer to acquire the whole of the issued and to be issued share
capital of Cadbury as follows:
+--------------------------+--------------------------------------+
| for each Cadbury Share | 300 pence in cash |
| | and |
| | 0.2589 New Kraft Foods Shares |
| | |
+--------------------------+--------------------------------------+
| for each Cadbury ADS | 1,200 pence in cash |
| | and |
| | 1.0356 New Kraft Foods Shares |
| | |
+--------------------------+--------------------------------------+





* The terms of Kraft Foods' Offer reflect all publicly available information on
Cadbury, including its recent interim management statement
* The Offer represents a substantial premium to the unaffected share price of
Cadbury
* The Offer represents an attractive multiple of Cadbury's underlying EBITDA
* Kraft Foods' current trading and prospects are strong
* Kraft Foods' estimated cost synergies have been carefully evaluated and are in
line with precedent transactions, including Cadbury's acquisition of Adams
* Cadbury Shareholders will share in the benefits of a combination, including
synergies, through the share element of the consideration
* No other potential offeror has publicly declared its interest in acquiring
Cadbury
* Kraft Foods remains committed to maintaining a financially disciplined approach

Commenting on the Offer, Irene Rosenfeld, Chairman and CEO of Kraft Foods, said:
"We remain convinced of the strategic merits for both companies of combining
Kraft Foods and Cadbury. We believe that our proposal offers the best immediate
and long-term value for Cadbury's shareholders and for the company itself
compared with any other option currently available, including Cadbury remaining
independent."
This summary should be read in conjunction with the full text of the following
announcement.
Enquiries:
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Kraft Foods | | |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Perry Yeatman | (Media) | +1 847 646 4538 |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Chris Jakubik | (Investors) | +1 847 646 5494 |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| | | |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Lazard (lead financial adviser) | | |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Jeffrey Rosen | | +1 212 632 6000 |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Antonio Weiss | | +1 212 632 6000 |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| William Rucker | | +44 20 7187 2000 |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Peter Kiernan | | +44 20 7187 2000 |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| | | |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Citigroup (corporate broking) | | |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| David James | | +44 20 7986 4000 |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| | | |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Deutsche Bank (corporate | | |
| broking) | | |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| James Agnew | | +44 20 7545 8000 |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| | | |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Brunswick Group (public | | |
| relations) | | |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Richard Jacques | | +44 20 7404 5959 |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+
| Jonathan Glass | | +44 20 7404 5959 |
+---------------------------------+-----------------+---------------------------------+

Financial advisers:
Centerview Partners
Robert Pruzan
Citigroup
Leon Kalvaria
Deutsche Bank
Nigel Meek

Cadbury Rejects Bid From Kraft; Offer Worse Than Previous One





LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Cadbury PLC (CBRY.LN), a confectionary company, said Monday that it has noted Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) unsolicited offer and recommends shareholders reject it.

MAIN FACTS:

-Offer consists of 300 pence and 0.2589 Kraft shares per Cadbury share, implying a value for each Cadbury share of 717 pence (based on the closing price of $26.78 for a Kraft share on Nov. 6 and an exchange rate of $1.6609/GBP

-Due to the fall in the Kraft share price since then, the implied value for each Cadbury share is around 4% lower.

-The Offer is worse than the proposal that the Board has previously rejected as fundamentally undervaluing Cadbury and its prospects.

-Confident Cadbury will deliver significant value - which should accrue wholly to shareholders

-By London Bureau, Dow Jones Newswires; Contact Ian Walker; +44 (0)20 7842 9296; ian.walker@dowjones.com

UK Trade Union Remains Skeptical Of Kraft's Jobs Commitment





LONDON -(Dow Jones)- U.K. trade union Unite said Monday it remains very skeptical about the commitment to U.K. jobs in Kraft Foods Inc.'s (KFT) latest bid for Cadbury PLC (CBY).

Despite welcoming the comments on U.K. jobs contained in Kraft's offer document Monday, Unite spokeswoman Jennie Formby said she remains "very skeptical."

Kraft said Monday it will be able to continue operating Cadbury's Somerdale factory in southwest England, "thereby preserving U.K. manufacturing jobs," should its GBP9.8 billion bid succeed. Cadbury is currently planning to close the plant.

In addition, Kraft said "the existing contractual employment rights, including pension rights, of all Cadbury Group employees will be fully safeguarded."

"We'll believe it when we see it," said Unite's Formby. "We'll be very careful not to accept too quickly any assurances without seeing what lies behind it."

Formby said the union had repeatedly tried to engage with Kraft since it originally proposed to buy Cadbury in early September.

"So far they've been more than happy to make comments in the press but they won't talk to us," she said.

Formby pointed out that Unite represents Cadbury employees in Ireland as well as the U.K., and Kraft has made no commitment to jobs outside the U.K.

She added that Kraft's own employees in Europe were also "very concerned" about their jobs.

-By Michael Carolan, Dow Jones Newswires; 44-20-7842-9278; michael.carolan@dowjones.com

Kraft's Latest Offer For Cadbury May Not Be Its Final Move





By Anjali Cordeiro and Michael Carolan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Kraft Foods Inc.'s (KFT) move to leave its September bid for Cadbury PLC (CBY, CBRY.LN) unchanged could lay the groundwork for some horse trading.

Investors and analysts still believe any deal between the two companies is likely to happen at a higher price. But with no counter bidder emerging so far, Kraft didn't feel immediate pressure to raise its bid. Still, Cadbury shares continue to trade around 760 pence, above Kraft's Monday offer that valued the confectioner at 717 pence a share, signaling the market is still counting on a higher price.

Kraft doesn't appear to be completely ruling out talks of some kind, although Cadbury didn't comment on whether it is open to discussion. Kraft sees nothing in its current approach that prevents it from talking to Cadbury about a friendly deal, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Industry watchers believe there may be negotiations ahead. "I don't know [that] this is the end of the game. I would be surprised if a deal went through where it currently stands," said Kevin Dreyer, an analyst at Gabelli & Co. Gamco Investors Inc. (GBL), which is affiliated with Gabelli & Co, holds 3.3 million American depositary receipts of Cadbury and 100,000 ordinary shares. Dreyer specified that he wasn't commenting for Gamco or at what price Gamco might sell its Cadbury shares.

Dreyer said there could be discussions between the two companies behind the scenes, or, if they aren't able to work out a friendly deal, it would be left to Kraft to increase its bid and rely on shareholders. If Kraft were open to a price above 800 pence, that could open the door for some negotiations, he said.

Kraft spokeswoman Perry Yeatman said the company believes its offer is fair and attractive, and Kraft would be happy to talk to Cadbury "about the offer on the table."

Kraft in early September unveiled a stock-and-cash proposal that valued Cadbury at 745 pence a share, although a subsequent fall in Kraft's share price and the value of the U.S. dollar has since weakened the value of that offer. Kraft formalized its GBP9.8 billion ($16.3 billion) hostile bid for Cadbury on Monday but the U.K. confectioner quickly rejected the offer.

Thomas Russo, a partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner, which holds Cadbury shares, said he is still studying Kraft's offer to decide what action his firm will take, saying that he now expects "some horse trading." But Russo said he believes Cadbury can be attractive even without a deal. "Our equity returns can be quite decent even without a transaction," he says.

Still, Kraft may not want to go too high in any final offer. The macaroni-and-cheese maker is likely to remain under pressure from its own shareholders to hold down the price of any final deal. Kraft is already carrying around $20 billion in debt and needs to keep its investment-grade credit rating.

Cadburys board and shareholders face their own dilemma. If Kraft walks away and no other bidder emerges, the confectioners stock price could fall sharply. Kraft has repeatedly said that it will be a "disciplined" buyer.

Analysts in London agreed that Monday's offer was unlikely to be Kraft's final move. Charles Stanley's Jeremy Batstone-Carr said Kraft would now "dig in and wait before raising its offer in the hope that Cadbury's subsequent trading record deteriorates."

Under U.K. takeover rules, Kraft can wait 28 days to post the current offer to Cadbury's shareholders. A 60-day offer period then follows, meaning the process could extend into early February.

ING analyst Marco Gulpers said he is confident that no other bidders will emerge before then. "My view is that Kraft has a pretty good feeling on whether there is a counter offer likely or not, which there isn't, so they have time on their side," he said.

-By Anjali Cordeiro, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2200; anjali.cordeiro@dowjones.com

CADBURY WATCH: Kraft Bid Worth 716P A Share As Of Nov 13

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- U.K. confectioner Cadbury PLC (CBY) Nov. 9 rejected a GBP9.8 billionoffer from Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) as "derisory," after the U.S. food giant formalized its previous approach rather than raise it.

Kraft said in a statement it was offering Cadbury shareholders 300 pence in cash and 0.2589 new Kraft shares for each Cadbury share. The terms are identical to the proposal rejected by Cadbury as too low at the start of September.

The cash and share offer originally valued Cadbury at GBP10.2 billion, or 745 pence a share though a subsequent fall in Kraft's share price and the U.S. dollar has since weakened the value of the bid.

Kraft's stock closed up 0.3% at $26.91 Friday, which means its bid for Cadbury is now worth 716 pence a share and values the U.K. company at GBP9.8 billion, or $16.4 billion. Cadbury shares closed unchanged at 776 pence.

Union demands details of Krafts plan for Cadbury

Unite, the union representing Cadbury workers, has written to Irene Rosenfeld, the chief executive of Kraft, demanding more details about its plans for the British confectioner if its 9.8 billion bid is successful.