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"Significantly exceeding expectations" (FDG)     

Confidant - 31 Aug 2006 09:44

MKT Cap 7.5m DEbt 8.6m at half year

Sales likely to be in excess of 20m , EBITDA c 3m These are my figures. Debt repayments ould be c1m in 2H alone

Market expectations PE 8.6x this years earnings before today's comment !!

Appears new management are running this company very well and the stock seems incredible cheap

Confidant - 11 Sep 2006 10:40 - 5 of 26

Today a possible bid for Sports Cafe Holding

This is a very similar company to FDG on turnover, margin etc. Altohugh different year ends does cloud the quick comparison done here

But Sports Cafe has market cap of 16m and debt of 12m = EV 28m

FDG has Market Cap of 8m and deb to 8.5m = EV 16.5m. Equal EV to sports cafe would mean a 150% rise in the FDG share price

Noted SCA net assets are c3m higher than FDG and net current liabilities are lower, but given the FDG recent statement. What am I missing ?

Confidant - 02 Nov 2006 13:45 - 6 of 26

Should be seeing results in next 4-5 weeks I am surprised the share price has not been strong as looks to be trading on c 7x this years earnings.

Nobody seems to be interested though -- on vols etc so I'll guess I wait for the results -- last full year stock moved 50% over results period.........

Confidant - 21 Nov 2006 10:55 - 7 of 26

Okay still no one interested even though on c 7X ye 9/2006 !!

The price has not moved 1 way or other since early Sept. Despite trades everyday. Suggests one seller and a few small buyers Today the bid has moved up a penny --- not a big shift Okay but exciting for this stock.

Results by year end should be easy 20% from here by then and still the stock will trade c 7.6x 9/2007 on my guestimates. Gearing immense but so should the cash flows be. 300p must be real target still

Confidant - 21 Nov 2006 14:36 - 8 of 26

tick,tick,tick,tick......................

Confidant - 28 Nov 2006 16:14 - 9 of 26

tick, tick, tick.............

Confidant - 30 Nov 2006 08:12 - 10 of 26

nice cutting of debt with this move. Focussing of group and funds for growth. Looking rosy at the moment as mangement appear to implement.
We will know for sure this time next week. I AM holding my breath.....

Matt7777 - 30 Nov 2006 14:34 - 11 of 26

looks like a good couple of deals - 8m mkt cap co just raised 1.5 m cash, should finance further expansion, and debt levels nicely under control now. Trading update on 7th December.

potatohead - 30 Nov 2006 16:39 - 12 of 26

the header is a bit of an overstatement isnt it. you should check out ERX, now that deserves that sort of a header

Confidant - 01 Dec 2006 09:44 - 13 of 26

the header is just the quote from the late August update PH

The company makes money, will be on historic PE of c8x this time next week. Just took in cash of 15% of mkt cap in two site diposals.

Has price to sales of less than 0.5X, less tha 4x EV/EBITDA

Debt is high but with the net cashflow looking v positive --- my guesstimate of well over 1m excl the 2 sales above could see debt down as low as 7.5m, now that is not at y/e. This depends on expenditure to fund growth though

Leaves a compnay having a great time nicely leveraged and massively cheap tp peers. New management delivering and franchise possibilties around the globe. It's the best I can do at the mo

As for ERX there might be a statement at some time, as for FDG the statement is next Thursday where those expectations will be "significantly exceeded. No the header is not overstated


Confidant - 01 Dec 2006 15:29 - 14 of 26

to use some football terminology......

Confidant - 06 Dec 2006 10:05 - 15 of 26

........here we go .......

to use some more football terminology -- it's not all over until the whistle blows -- tomorrow morning with the results. Plenty to play for only concern remains an own goal

Pond Life - 06 Dec 2006 12:05 - 16 of 26

And judging from the way this is moving today, the market is pricing in some very god news. I don't hold, but it's on my watch list. Good luck.

Confidant - 06 Dec 2006 13:11 - 17 of 26

"God news" Pond Life now that would send the share price flying :-)

Tend to agree that probably 50% of near term move is done. BUT it does depend on just how far the numbers are above August estimates 20% above which on comment should be lowest, current level will have stock on 9x historic i.e 21p of earnings. Upto 25p could be possible but I'll be happy with 21p of earnings and nice cashflow and growth comments

Confidant - 07 Dec 2006 07:53 - 18 of 26

blown away, just blown away 29p eps. need to look at details but these are pretty spectacular

Pond Life - 07 Dec 2006 08:21 - 19 of 26

'God news' indeed Confident. These results are heaven sent!

Confidant - 07 Dec 2006 08:27 - 20 of 26

:-o

240-250p probable next stop. But the comment, current trading etc is exceptional. Rating to get anywhere near peers suggest 300p.

Not gone thorugh detail but note untaxed this yr, not next

That's the only downer. Real upside is cash -- debt below 7m now folloiwng Nov lease sales. Scope therefore for growth. LFL over 5% is excellent. Management are delivering. p/s still less than 50%. With debt falling this should be 60% at least and then rating still well below peers.

Confidant - 12 Dec 2006 08:35 - 21 of 26

Xmas has come early -- get me into London so I can celebrate in one of FDG's bars

Confidant - 09 Jan 2007 10:05 - 22 of 26

good update with sales flying. EV still below Sports Cafe despite latters warning

New management are showing they know how to manage a bar company even though difficult to see more favourable conditions

Seller seems to be around taking big profits no doubt and looks to take advantage of good news to get rid. This means stock still lowly valued.

Confidant - 19 Jan 2007 09:25 - 23 of 26

Here we go again ?? No idea here possible in a share mag . Any ideas ?

Confidant - 01 Mar 2007 16:28 - 24 of 26

27.155% OF SHARE CAP HAS JUST CHANGED HANDS AT 230P !!!!

good or bad ?
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