Is Pollen Capital a distressed seller?

Major shareholders as at 06/07/15:
Pollen Capital 97.3m 38.9%
Fidelity 21.1m 8.4%
Old Mutual 23.6m 9.43%
Kames 7.1m

Yesterday a 7m trade went through at 133.0. Today we find out Richmond Group are the buyer but no seller declared through RNS. I thought it might have been Kames but today the selling continue at 133.0 exactly the same price as yesterday, so someone who has more than 7m is selling as they can't be sourced from anywhere else.

All banks up today including the second line ones. This can't rise as there's a brick wall between 132.8 and 133.6

Directors have been buying on the way down at prices between 140 and 167 although not in large volumes.

Interim Management Statement

Key Highlights

· Stable NIM at 5.6% with continued tailwinds expected from deposit book repricing following the Bank of England base rate cut in August 2016

· Continued operational leverage as the Group grows with underwriting remaining robust and disciplined

· The Q3 2016 YTD cost of risk, excluding the controls breach announced on 28 June 2016, remains significantly lower than anticipated through cycle loss rates supported by continued strengthening of controls and risk frameworks

· Organic originations up 23% in Q3 2016 YTD to £1.5bn (Q3 2015 YTD: £1.2bn)

· Net loans & advances to customers increased 19%, exceeding £4.0bn at 30 September 2016 from £3.4bn at 31 December 2015

· Continued implementation of the stated strategy across all divisions:

Ø Property Finance: continued progression of Shawbrook's presence in the Development Finance market through phased growth

Ø Property Finance: continued development of the Lending into Retirement product set with launch expected in Q1 2017

Ø Business Finance: significant developments in expanding the distribution capabilities as the Regional Business Centres are rolled out with a number of centres expected to be operational by the end of 2016

Ø Consumer: announcement of a partnership deal with Saga plc to explore the provision of additional financial solutions for life after 50

Ø Consumer: successful launch of the Direct to Consumer platform for Personal Loans enabling the Group to progressively increase originations

Interims received well

50 MA approaching 200 MA for those that believe in these things

RBC Capital Markets Sector Performer 269.05 210.00 280.00 Upgrades

Thank you Skinny. That explains it's strength today.

I'm still in this trade and happy to stay long for a while longer

Possible offer for Shawbrook:

https://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5506791

Interesting times. I've managed to hold all mine from 133 so will be happy with 333 fora trade which will have taken about a year by the time the transactions goes through.

I think the offer is opportunistic and low but I doubt I will get any more.

This is the most bizarre takeover I've seen in a long time.

Pollen are offering 330p + 2.7p dividend.

Price now 340 with increasing volume going through at psychological 340p barrier.

Shawbrook reject third offer but haven't actually put up a single reason why shareholders shouldn't sell other than the offer is too low.

No coverage in newspapers giving any insight as to what shareholders should do.

I remain in this trade partly because I don't want the capital gains in this tax year and partly because the premium over 332.7 is telling me something.

Completely puzzled.

Shawbrook's (SHAW) largest shareholder, Pollen Street Capital, is not giving up. The asset manager has reasserted its bid for the challenger bank, as part of a consortium with private equity group BC Partners. However, the bidders have not increased their offer - which remains at 330p cash per share - but have instead opted for a takeover rather than scheme of arrangement. The former requires the consortium to secure more than 50 per cent acceptances and does not need the recommendation of the bank's board. The latter not only required board approval, but 75 per cent of acceptances of those voting.

The Shawbrook board has once again rebuffed the offer. A bank spokesperson cited previous statements regarding negative feedback from other major shareholders, and that the deal's terms undervalued the business. Shawbrook management is confident in its ability to deliver on its own growth strategy*.

The bidco's director, Lindsey McMurray, said the offer would provide "liquidity to those investors that seek it and create an ownership structure comprising long-term, supportive investors that will allow the company to adopt a more flexible approach to changing market dynamics".

IC VIEW:
The offer represents a 24 per cent premium to Shawbrook's closing price of 268p a share the day before the first offer. However, it also signifies just 9.7 times forecast earnings for 2017, or 1.6 times book value. We think this looks to be poor value for shareholders. For now, await documents.
Last IC View: Hold, 314p, 9 Mar 2017

Can anyone help me with this.

The takeover price is 330+2.7p dividend=332.7 which will require more than 50% shareholder support.

The actual price in the market varies between 338-342 intraday and has been like this for four weeks.

The bidder already owns 41% of the shares so they only need 9% to get this through.

There appears to be some dissatisfaction with the bid but no press coverage of any note.

This would imply
a) a higher bid is coming but this seems unlikely
b) the takeover will not get enough support but without it I think the share price will fall at least in the short term

Help! I still hold all my position from 133 and at today's price equates to around 10% of my total portfolio. My gut says there's a reason the price is above 332.7 and to hold.

Just guessing - The higher price suggests as you say a higher bid is coming or if they believe there is likely to be a competing bid from another suitor.

This one done with now. Takeover going through at 340.

Bought at 133 at the very bottom and sold out for 339.5 and managed to hold the whole lot.

About 2/3rds of the money redeployed on ALD, PCF and a little more CTO.

Well done CC.