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SKY BEATS YET AGAIN (BSY)     

l2e - 14 May 2003 07:33

sky putting in a good set of results again but the market wont let them geo higher untill they secure those football rights.
If they do will the sky leap over the 7 mark or will the market be expecting subscriber growth to slow.
considering there is no divi pay out there isn't much cover from bears who want to short at these prices.
http://www.polskishop.com/14_05_03.htm

scotinvestor - 04 Aug 2004 15:40 - 5 of 12

is it worth buying in to sky now after the sudden collapse today?

Masive amount of trading volume too which is usually an indicator for a reasonable rise again in share price

partridge - 04 Aug 2004 16:13 - 6 of 12

The saying goes that profits are sanity and sales are vanity. Sky has delivered in profit terms and excellent cash generation, cutting debt by some 700M in 12 months. All concern seems to be on slowdown in future growth - parallels with mobile telephony companies a few years ago when emphasis on number of punters rather than profits. With such volatility, buying in the hope of a rapid bounce must be an act of faith, but underlying business looks so strong I have bought at 500p with a view to long term - perhaps as well as I am 10p per share down within a few minutes!

brianboru - 04 Aug 2004 17:16 - 7 of 12

Investors should not forget that Sky still has many attractive fundamentals. Annual profits have just doubled, annual revenue per user has risen to 380, debt is shrinking and the company is pledging to return more money to shareholders. The scale of discount to the sector now seems overdone.

ft lex

Fundamentalist - 04 Aug 2004 23:56 - 8 of 12

Attractive fundamentals - what is the current PE? What is the current debt levels?

partridge - 05 Aug 2004 09:08 - 9 of 12

How about last three years figs (to June 30th in M, 2004 last)
Group t/o 2776,3186 and 3656
Op Ex 2721,2938 and 3175
Op profit 55,248 and 481
Pretax (1139),122 and 480
Net cash from operating activities 250, 663 and 882
Net debt 1528,1105 and 429

I particularly like the last two rows, particularly as subsrciber income now presumably largely on direct debit. I was a reluctant convert to Sky earlier this year and think Sky+ is excellent. Hope they do not chase additional subscribers at any cost and focus more on reducing churn rate, currently remaining stubbornly high at over 9% - they could much more quickly achieve targets if this was cut to say 5% and think of the admin savings. Competition is gettting stronger but they still have market leading position.Latest earnings 16.6p gives current P/E of around 30, but this should continue to fall. Not for the faint hearted, but could reward the patient - and now producing some (modest)dividend income.

brianboru - 05 Aug 2004 09:21 - 10 of 12

Telegraph - Once the market had closed and analysts put the tops back on their red pens, the shares stood on a multiple of around 18 times next year's forecast earnings.

This is no longer too much of a premium to the 15 times 2005 earnings multiple for ITV, which has far inferior growth prospects. When the dust settles, it seems likely investors will recognise that Sky has not gone ex-growth just yet.

hannibal - 05 Aug 2004 15:53 - 11 of 12

The Bears seem to have beaten it back down from 515p to 501p today. SKY is a great business model - the marginal cost of serving new customers is virtually nil, all they need to do is get them to sign up for the first year, through cheap connection deals. However I think the direct competition with 'free to view' is mistaken. SKY need to tie up with a phone operator and offer a package that is comparable with NTL.

Brokers seem to be putting a target price of at least 600p.

So did I get a good deal @ 500p? I think so.

brianboru - 05 Aug 2004 16:54 - 12 of 12

Yes - looks like the hedge funds who bought the 26 million from Goldman @ 599p the other day threw their toys out the pram and dumped everything - I'd been kicking myself for not buying in late 2002 when they were last down at this price. Nice to get a second chance.
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